Taking stock of Sudan peace agreement
By Ndung’u Wainaina
July 17, 2007 — When one looks across from Iraq through Afghanistan, Middle East., Somalia, Sudan all the way to Western Sahara, three things are common: it is a straight line of bloodbath due to unrelenting vicious conflicts; political and market powers fundamentalism are entrenched ; and the rogue America’s foreign policy and its disguised fight against terrorism is at play and taking tolls. Former President Bill Clinton once fired missiles at The Sudan destroying a chemical manufacturing plant accusing the then Khartoum regime of manufacturing biological weapons and harbouring terrorists. The Sudan and West capitals have been at loggerheads over a number of issues. However, since signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement [CPA] and the race for the control of oil fields in the South began diplomatic and political relations between Khartoum and Western capitals have been warming. Perhaps this is why the Western countries have gone slow in exerting pressure on the Khartoum government to keep her commitment of honouring the full implementation of the CPA deal.
On July 9, 2007, Sudan government was expected to completely withdraw its military force in the Southern Sudan. Only the joint force would remain while Southern Sudan government takes more responsibility in provision and guaranteeing of security. However, this is yet to fruition. The implementation of the comprehensive peace agreement meant to resolve one of Africa’s bloodiest and longest conflict is still facing many challenges that at times border on threat to collapse of the peace agreement. Internally, the Southern Sudan government is facing political and ethnic mistrust and power relation strains. Disarmament demobilization and reintegration programme of over 50,000 militias and other groups formerly backed by the Khartoum government as well as handling the huge number of refugees and internally displaced persons issues is way off the mark. The social economic development framework is yet to gain ground and start to realize some impact while societal reconciliation and accountability is far from taking root. However, there is hope in the midst of this apparent bleak future.
The taunting challenge is how to make both sides i.e. Sudan People’s Liberation Movement government in the South and Khartoum based Northern government to keep their side of bargain as outlined in the peace agreement. Khartoum government has to demonstrate more commitment and political will to honour and implement the agreement provisions. I think international community has more responsibility to constructively and more proactively engage the Khartoum government to keep her part of the obligations in the peace deal. The vigour and commitment with which the international community is pushing for the resolution of the Darfur crisis is important in tackling the hurdles standing on the way for the full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement to avoid recurrence of the conflict. Another challenge is strengthening and stabilizing the Southern Sudan government to make it more effective in delivering services and ensuring peace and security.
The effect of unfortunate death of Dr. John Garang, the founding leader of SPLM is being reflected in the current Southern Sudan government. While President Silva Kiir is an experienced soldier and long time insider of the SPLM, he lacks the political clout and charisma that glue the rank and file of the SPLM leadership. The indicator of existence of tensions in the Southern government is the recent reshuffle of the Southern Sudan government and constant military mutinies threats which beside due to poor terms of service has link to different loyalties. The President Bashir government has deliberately and strategically been taking advantage of this weakness and other gaps in the peace deal to sabotage and delay full implementation of the CPA. At the moment, it seems that the Khartoum is not giving the Southern government the due recognition as serious partner and major player in the Sudan politics. This has net effect of affecting in a big way how the SPLM government will approach the upcoming referendum and the future of The Sudan as a united country. President Bashir has perfected the art of double speak and covert tactics not just in the way he is handling the CPA implementation but also in resolving Darfur conflict. His acts depict of unreliability, irresponsibility and sabotage.
The future holding and realization of CPA is dependent on two fronts. First, is the internal front where the Khartoum and SPLM governments are actors. President Bashir government has to stop corrupting the CPA deal and implementing it selectively. Instead the government has to faithful embrace and honour commitment unto the deal. It is understandable that President Bashir fears losing the grip and control of the implementation plan worrying that the Southern government will finally swing the outcome to her favour jeopardizing the Khartoum government interests especially in regard to huge oil and other natural resources deposits in the South. It is the responsibility and advantageous for the Khartoum government to honour the spirit and letter of the peace deal. Honouring faithfully the deal is greater incentive for the South to support united Sudan but if the Khartoum remains adamant and over obsessed with preserving power, it is going to be extremely difficult for the CPA to workout and most probably the South and North might part ways during referendum each emerging as a distinct country.
President Bashir appears to have shadow government that makes key decisions without necessarily involving the South. It is also a fact that the number and impact of Southerners serving in the National government is far less with very few holding substantive and influential positions. On its part, the SPLM government has to overcome the enormous challenges which are severely undermining its ability to function as an effective partner in the national government and successfully consolidate governance and service delivery in the South. Key among these is the strengthening the internal disputes resolution and decision-making mechanisms in order to make SPLM administration strong and effective. Also SPLM has to recruit and consolidate a professional civilian police force and military for purpose of guaranteeing security and peace. While it is right to let the SPLM government to organize and run its affairs, it is critical for the international community to remain strongly vigilance and provide the necessary support politically and financially. It is only through consistency and proactive engagement with both the North and South governments that CPA is going to finally come to fruition.
* The author is the Director, International Center for Policy and Conflict, ICPC. E-Mail: [email protected]