Sudan’s CPA is in coma and intensive care
By Roba Gibia
October 23, 2007 — The current political crisis in Sudan is not merely political disagreement between SPLM and NCP but it is an absolute attempt to slain the desire, determination and aspirations of the Sudanese people mainly by ruling party. The NCP is undermining Interim National Constitution despite their insistence that they do abide with constitution, democratic transformation and national reconciliation. The National Congress Party’s attitude towards peace implementation has not changed since then and it sends wrong signal to the up coming Darfur conference in Tripoli, and it ascertains that there is no gentleman agreement with Khartoum. SPLM has been keen and granted NCP apple time to refrain from its behavior and prove to the entire Sudanese people that they are peace-loving people, and implement the most crucial peace provisions to justify its claim of faithfulness. During the peace negotiation and especially after inking it, Vice President Ali Osman Taha acquired great honor and perceived as architecture engineer and peace hero which gave great credibility to his ruling party. But as the time passes by the NCP popularity as a peace-maker started diminishing drastically, because the Sudanese people knew that NCP is deceiving and playing around with their minds. Therefore, the NCP has to be realistic in its dealings and honor its pledges to the Sudanese people. The continued stalemate between SPLM and NCP is a precious lesson to Eastern agreement but it will prolong the Darfur chances to reaching agreement with Khartoum, as there is no point to sign agreement if its implementation process could drag yet another political warfare, disagreement and torn the partners apart.
At the wake of the political impasse between the two partners NCP and SPLM, the position of the ruling party remains unchanged as spelled out by the Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail in Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper that “He who thinks that we will reverse our positions through pressure and provocation of foreign countries is dreaming”. I believe the NCP leadership was not able to conceal their anger and it conceives the SPLM move antagonistic and threatening its political livelihood. It is outrageous for the Presidential Advisor to articulate that “we don’t care if SPLM ministers are in the north or south, we will not stop what we are doing and will not respond to pressure”. This is a clear indication that NCP leadership is playing it well and according to the desired strategies, but yet this is not attitude of responsible dignitary who cares about partnership and exercise of constitutional and democratic rights, rebuilding of confidence and trust between the two distant peoples which has been exhausted by the persistent hostilities between south and north. Thus, if you do not care, then why do you concluded agreement and entered into partnership, what prompted you to conclude agreement with deferment implementation! I believe as leaders and politicians we have to watch our tongues in such sensitive and national matters instead of provocation and being superciliousness.
Since inking Naivasha agreement and particularly after death of Dr. John Garang de Mabior at plane crash, the National Congress Party has been provocative and displaying its military muscles and reassuring its supporters that Sudan has successfully developed surveillance planes, and has acquired military technology that made her now self-sufficient in conventional weapons and is also in process of developing missiles which puts Sudan number three in Africa. NCP signed peace not for the shake of peace but it was a tactical move to rebuild and modernize its military capability for the second phase of hostilities with SPLM and to quell Darfur uprising. In this context, NCP might be utterly wrong if she thinks that she might be able to defeat SPLM militarily. It is evident that neither NCP nor SPLM would be able to resolve their indifferences in battlefields, never unless through negotiation as it happened in Naivasha. And I believe the two opposing forces knew each ones’ capabilities and the disastrous consequences of going back to war in one hand, but on the other the SPLM stands better chance of challenging Khartoum, as during the past wars, south Sudan was made the battlefield and Khartoum was supported by entire northern regions, but the situation has changed today and none of these regions would not support Khartoum against SPLM. Hence, NCP has now dumped itself into a deep swamp and will not be able to get out of it unless it changes its attitude. In this context, one wonders who are going to support and fight beside NCP in its war against SPLM, if the war breaks today between Khartoum and SPLM, will east or west or north support Khartoum!
During the Vice President’s press conference on October 21, 2007 which was prepared with care, was meant to distort and bar facts from the public opinion about the actual predicament behind the CPA implementation process and to justify National Congress Party’s fault from one hand, and from the other it was meant to inflict and cause maximum damage, tarnish and present SPLM as inexperienced partner without ethics and doesn’t have national responsibility. There was nothing new in the Vice President’s press conference but same recitation of the previous statements and rhetoric since January 9, 2005. The sole motto of the press conference was to downplay Sudan People’s Liberation Movement’s suspension decision which exposes infidelity in the relationship between the two fragile partners.
The Vice President talked about the mechanisms and committees which are the legal bodies to sort out and resolve any arising obstacles on the path of peace implementation between NCP and SPLM. But it seems that the Vice President has turned blind eye to the failure and dormant status for some of these committees to make any breakthrough in the crucial matters entrusted upon them such as Abyei committee, in spite of the fact that there were formed jointly with the consent of the two partners. Beside that the presidency has got major hand at the current political crisis due to its failure to exercise its power as mandated by the peace agreement and interim national constitution, which Vice President never talked about but instead falsely preferred to blame and degrade the SPLM, the unwanted body.
Thus, in conclusion I would like to underline that both partners have got their positive and flaw points, but certain facts are clear, lack of confidence, trust, power voracity and state of war which exists between the two old foes. Thus, this looming state of war and the unfolding events prompts one to conclude that the Comprehensive Peace Agreement is in coma and intensive care, which requires urgent operation to save its life but due to the delicacy of the operation, a consultant committee was formed from Sudanese doctors to examine possibility of meddling operation. And the peace loving people are scary and concerned about the feeble condition of CPA and praying day and night to salvage CPA from demise.
The author is a Sudan Tribune Journalist. He can be reached at [email protected]
ahmed mukhtar
Sudan’s CPA is in coma and intensive care
Why most of articles on this site are issued by southerners they reprsent 10-15% of the population-special hidden agenda for “sudan tribune”?
Samani
Sudan’s CPA is in coma and intensive care
I would like to thank Roba Gibia for reaching the conclusion that both partners have got their positive and flaw points. I hope all sudanese can see this too. The blame game and pointing fingers has always been the cause of stalemates on any issues regarding the CPA. Many articles written by fellow sudanese (from north and south) try to think logicaly to analyse the situation in sudan, I applaud them. But i also noticed the true hatred and worst feelings of resentment, even racist statements by some sudanese on this site. Im sorry to say they still live in the battle-field and feel they are still in war. Wake-up my friends and change your narrow minded mentality. Try to think what is good for the nation as one. Isnt that what democracy is? what you’ve been fighting for? Or was it just the struggle for self-power and wealth. Sadly its always the latter when it come to africa. The common people are the ones who suffer in the end. I wish transparency from both sides (NCP and SPLM), i can see from my last visit to khartoum what the government is trying to do, infrastructure and a blooming economy (yes its not all good/legal/or awlays in the best intentions). But, what has the SPLM done for the south so far? Where is the development these last years? Where has the money gone? The army? peoples pockets? wheres the evidence. A logical answer please. Stop throwing around meaningless and selfish statements. Leave your tribalism, ignorance and try to embrace the opportunity for a better future. I wish you all the best, peace and prosperity.
David Mayen Deng
Sudan’s CPA is in coma and intensive care
The CPA will not get out of this comma without the efforts of all the Sudanese people, Arabs/Arabised and Africans. The most disappointing aspect of the current situation lies in the part that concerns the other political forces in Sudan. They seem to be looking at the CPA from the power-sharing angle alone, without due regard to the fact that it is the only agreement that can hold the country together . Some senior members of the toothless traditional parties of the north spook to the media about the fact that they were left out of the power-sharing agreement, as if that was what they only looked for in their political endeavors and involvement. Their latest insincere pro-SPLM and pro-CPA statements lacked vigor and honesty.
There are only two options placed by the SPLM on the NCP’s table, that is: Either implement the CPA or loose power. Yes, apart from our own options in South Sudan (like Declaration of Independence from Juba, which will get international endorsement in no time, given Khartoum’s reputation and human rights record today), the NCP is faced with those two options with no third. The NCP knows very well that without the SPLM their burden would be too heavy to carry – it will include fighting in too many fronts that their meager resource and human base may not afford to sustain. With over 30,000 UN troops in Darfur and South Sudan, with mandates that may change (when they are already on the ground) according to changes in the dynamics of “The Sudanese Crises”; Darfur being in increasing turmoil; another bigger front in South Sudan against a people more united than ever in their modern or ancient history; the military revival of the NDA through traditional sectarian parties that are already hungry for power; the other revival of the bigger New Sudan aspirations with the Nuba Mountains’ forces already on the ground and in the Angasana Hills, the NCP would only need Angles from heaven to fight the new war against the Sudanese people (all the Sudanese people) . Hence, why should we fear a winning war with an enemy that is not ready to implement a fair peace that carry their signature on every paper and protocol?
When Ali Osman negotiated the CPA under strict instructions and mandate from the NCP he appeared sincere and was credited for what was signed under international and domestic pressures, but his true colors are getting bolder. And if those pressures were great the current pressure is even greater. Thus, his recent statements highlight the political immaturity and insincerity that we have grown accustomed to in Sudan. In Sudan, many a leader has climbed to the highest point of the ladder of political greatness before plummeting to the abyss of the histories garbage when their true colors shine. That is the very reason Dr.Garang was received by millions of desperate Sudanese in a manner fit for profits.
Let all the Sudanese people get out to the streets in protests against the NCP’s handling of the current crises. The SPLM is not asking for new clauses to be added to the CPA, but simply the implementation of the CPA; why is that becoming a cause for alarm and intimidation ? If the current demands are not met then let the CPA not only be in comma but die.
David Mayen, The Center for International Human Rights Law and Advocacy, The University of Denver