Sudan peace talks are set to resume
By ANDREW ENGLAND, Associated Press Writer
KHARTOUM, Feb 16, 2004 (AP) — From the dusty streets and bustling markets of Khartoum to the hushed corridors of the Republican Palace, expectations are high that Sudan’s Islamic government and southern rebels are inching toward ending a 21-year civil war.
Peace talks, which have made erratic progress during 19 months, are scheduled to resume Tuesday in neighboring Kenya after a three-week break.
Arabs in the north hope peace will mean a freer and wealthier future in a more open and democratic country. Black Africans in the south want development in one of the world’s poorest areas and life without fear of night raids by government-backed Arab militias.
Despite that optimism, opposition leaders and analysts warn that the government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army are simply divvying up Sudan’s territory and untapped riches without resolving its root conflict – how to govern this vast African nation.
Even if talks bring an end to brutal war between north and south, critics worry the peace will be incomplete.
A yearlong rebellion is raging in Darfur in the west, where thousands of people have been killed and hundreds of thousands forced from their homes. There also is a history of unrest in the east.
Both areas feel marginalized by the government in Khartoum, which has made only halfhearted attempts at democratic reform.
Under agreements signed so far, rebels will receive half the south’s revenue and retain their forces during a six-year transition, after which southerners will vote whether to secede.
A peace agreement could “stop the war without sufficient attention to removing the causes and sufficient robustness about democratization. This is very dangerous,” said Sadiq el-Mahdi, a former prime minister who leads the opposition Umma party.
“So many northern and southern groups are not included,” he said. “It’s really asking for trouble.”
El-Mahdi and Ali Mahmoud Hassanein, a senior member of the opposition Democratic Unionist Party, call for a national peace conference that would include the northern opposition and other rebel movements.
The western rebellion bolsters their prediction of more conflict, and analysts warn it could derail the south-north peace process. Darfur insurgents say they, too, are fighting for a share of Sudan’s power and wealth.
“It’s not logical to have peace on one side when war has broken out elsewhere,” said Hassan Mandela, a spokesman for the Sudan Liberation Army, one of two rebel groups fighting in Darfur.
Insurgents in the east and west have forged an alliance to press for what Mandela called a restructuring of Sudan’s political system to give all regions equal treatment.
Gutbi el-Mahdi, President Omar el-Bashir’s political adviser, said the government was “preparing to face any developments” if trouble erupts in the east.
Yet he is optimistic that peace in the south will breed trust among Sudan’s diverse peoples, who now have no feeling of Sudanese nationalism.
Larger than Western Europe, Sudan has only about 1,180 miles of paved and gravel roads, according to the U.S. State Department. The average yearly income is $300. In the war-impoverished south, many live on food handouts from international aid agencies.
Yet Sudan has vast reaches of arable land, mineral resources like gold and oil reserves of more than 600 million barrels.
Sudan joined the ranks of oil exporters in 1999. But critics say most of the money has gone to finance the war, which at its height cost an estimated $2 million a day.
The government estimates it needs $150 billion over six years to get basic services to all parts of the country, plagued by conflict since Anglo-Egyptian rule ended in 1956.
The southern rebellion broke out in 1983, six years before el-Bashir seized power. Rebels took arms up against the Arab and Muslim-dominated northern government, fighting for a greater share of the country’s wealth and the rights of largely animist and Christian southerners. The conflict has killed roughly 2 million people, mainly through war-induced famine.
Analysts wonder whether a final deal will lead to a democratic Sudan or merely cement the government’s grip on the north and rebel rule in the south.
The government and southern rebels are “autocratic military movements,” said Stephen Morrison, executive director of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“It remains to be seen whether the two respective parties move to an open political spectrum and legitimize and broaden their support,” Morrison said. “There are plenty of reasons for people to be concerned about the peace process.”