South Sudan must be ruled by U.N. mandate
By Steve Paterno
March 30, 2008 — After three years under self-rule and halfway through the interim period before the referendum could take place, South Sudan exhibits all characteristic of a failed State, despite its aspiration to become an independent country. The Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement (SPLM) inked for South Sudan one of the best peace deals its people would ever wish for. The deal, signed in 2005 and popularly known as the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), stipulates, among others, the formation of an autonomous government of South Sudan, maintenance of separate South Sudan armed forces and a referendum for South Sudan independence. Sine qua non, the peace deal provides South Sudan with ultimate authority to run its own affairs parallel to the Sudan government in Khartoum until South Sudan hold a referendum for a complete independence in the year 2011. This peace agreement created a unique system for governing Sudan that is best described as two countries in one.
Sweet a peace deal as it may sound, in reality and practice, the CPA on the ground is heading to a total messed-up. First, the northern partner of the agreement, the National Congress Party (NCP) of Khartoum radical Islamists has reneged the basic tenets of the peace deal—mostly in areas of security arrangement, border demarcation and wealth sharing to make the partnership ineffectual—as it is in their nature and interest not to honor it. As for the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM), the other partner to the agreement, it suffers largely from internal fracture, incompetence, pandemic corruption and lack of vision and strategies to assert any credible leadership in implementing the agreement it signed. All is left is for the CPA to die a painful natural death. In words of many analysts, CPA reached the point of “beyond the crisis.”
The war, which was supposed to stop immediately after the signing of the agreement, is continuously being waged mostly through proxies, particularly in the South-North border where it has already claimed scores of lives. It is just a matter of time before the situation is blown into a full-fledged war where it will draw Sudan into square one or as some group of experts asserts, a “resumed war between the North and the South would have set Sudan back for years, if not decades.” It is actually a consensus among experts, predicting a looming South-North war, which most likely will be more dangerous than any wars Sudan ever experienced.
South Sudan that was supposed to be free of irregular armed groups has instead become a home for proliferation of various kinds of armed groups. Militias supported from Khartoum flourish in numbers and in different brands. The South Sudan military become the most undisciplined army, causing terror among the civilians it had fought for and supposed to provide for their security. Some civilians and villagers wield guns like their walking sticks with high frequency of turning them to each other. Other non South Sudanese nomadic ethnic groups such as the Ambororo and Messiria, guided by Khartoum are let loose into South Sudan with their arms and livestock to cause havoc and ethnic conflict and displacement. Even the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a Hague indicted rebel group from Uganda is allowed to go on with the killing spree and looting in South Sudan with impunity. In light of all these, South Sudan surges to insecurity and volatility with a devastating impact that can potentially place it to be Somalia in steroid.
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS), the supposed sole and legitimate authority in South Sudan is plagued with lack of direction, corruption, tribalism/nepotism and incompetence. Corruption in South Sudan is running wild like a daylight robbery; with allegations of government officials looting public funds in duffle bags. Almost every senior government officials are alleged to have been entangled in corruption in one way or another. It has become impossible to prosecute corrupt officials. It is not surprising that South Sudan anti-corruption commission, mandated to rid corruption admitted publicly that it surrenders fighting corruption. Tribalism and nepotism has become the order of the day and institutionalized; appointment to senior/key civil, military and constitutional positions reflects the self-interest of those in charge by dishonoring competency and representation of the diversity of the people. It is said that it is easy to know a tribe of a minister in GOSS by simply paying a visit to the ministry since most of those employed in the ministries are likely to be from the ethnic group of the minister.
And of course, South Sudan thrived in incompetence. Being incompetent can be defined as “devoid of qualities required for effective conduct of action.” In South Sudan, incompetence is easily facilitated by high level of corruption and proactive tribalism and nepotism. For these reasons, majority of South Sudanese are dissatisfied with their own government. Their hopes on the hype of signing of the CPA have already faded away in a thin air.
Although many experts on Sudan have rightly concluded that the “Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is beyond the crisis,” but there ought to be a solution to bring real peace to Sudan, and that should be by placing South Sudan to be ruled under the United Nations (UN) mandate. There is already United Nations Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS), tasked with supporting the implementation of CPA. The UNMIS mandate must be upgraded to take over a full control of South Sudan and run the affairs of GOSS during an interim period. The interim period must be extended into ten to fifteen years. The current GOSS with all its structures or modified ones would be allowed to operate as a mock government with no real authority but as part of the mandate system. This in a long run will serve as an effective transformation process for the future government in South Sudan after the mandate expires.
After all, the UN is considering such a mandate in Sudan’s volatile Darfur region. It is, therefore, easy to come up with one for South Sudan, which has already created a fertile ground for such a mandate. The UN mandate system has precedent. For examples, there was the “United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine,” which eventually paved way for the creation of state of Israel, arguably the supper power of Middle East; the UN had a similar plan for Kosovo transition for independence; and the United Nations Mission of Support in East Timor facilitated the full independence of East Timor. Even Iraq with its proud military, ranking the fourth largest in the world had to be subjected under a U.N. mandate, paving a way for Iraq self rule.
Therefore, such a plan for South Sudan and other Sudan’s trouble regions like Darfur will not only ensure effective transition to self rule but will create a real comprehensive peace in Sudan. The alternatives of course, do not favor peace and stability. If the status quo is allowed to continue and at this pace, then the South-North war will be the immediate result. Other alternatives will include a hope for coup in Juba to replace GOSS current officials—likely or not, but could be treacherous. If mid level ranking officials like aggrieved colonels within South Sudan military are pouring on the streets in Malou/Rumbek to demonstrate, it may be the tip of the iceberg and the likelihood of a coup or at least an attempt in the South is probable with a prolong anarchy. History tells us that the rank of colonel is not to be mess-up with. One of the notorious Sudanese dictators who came to power through a coup was colonel, a pretty dumb one too, Jaafar El Nimeiri. Remember too, the Sudanese neighboring dictator in Egypt, colonel Gamal Nasser who fired his way to power is one. John Garang who aspired to rule Sudan by leading a two decade rebellion is a colonel. And yes, even sergeants can plot a successful coup; Gnassingbe Eyadema did in Togo and Samuel Doe in Liberia. Who will not for Sudan and South Sudan in particular?
Steve Paterno is the author of The Rev. Fr. Saturnino Lohure, A Romain Catholic Priest Turned Rebel. He can be reached at [email protected]