Has al-Qaeda gained new footholds in Sudan?
November 13, 2022 (KHARTOUM) – Bayt al-Maqdis, one of the media interfaces of Al-Qaeda, published on October 17, 2022, a new book entitled “Fighting is Now: Messages of War to the Mujahidin in Sudan.”
“These are messages of war that I send to the Mujahideen in Sudan, because it is a legitimate obligation for us to fight for the sake of the religion so that the word of unbelievers is lowered to the depths, and the word of Allah is exalted to the heights,” said the author, Sheikh Abu Hudhayfa Al-Sudani, in the introduction to his publication, which is focused on Sudan.
Why does it matter?
The publication incited jihad against the Sudanese government, and the establishment of combat jihadist formations, that would declare war on “the tyrannical regime and puppet government in Khartoum.”
What is the basis of his call?
Abu Hudhayfa al-Sudani claims that “monotheism is the whole religion, and it is a comprehensive system of life, but it is only achievable through fighting for the sake of Allah, to take over the rule from the tyrants who altered God’s law and return it to the people of monotheism.
Proposed mechanisms
The author called on the jihadists in Sudan to “comply with the minimum duty that they cannot shirk, which is the acquisition of arms, the storage of sufficient ammunition, training and preparation until God authorizes the emergence of the ‘blessed group’ under whose banner they fight.”
Who is Abu Hudhayfa?
According to available data, Abu Hudhayfa Al-Sudani embraced the jihadist ideology a long time ago, before joining al-Qaeda international terrorist network in Afghanistan under the leadership of “Osama bin Laden”.
Abu Hudhayfa travelled several times between Arabian and Middle Eastern countries to carry out terrorist attacks. He flew north to Iraq and Pakistan, and then returned back to Khartoum where he was detained and extradited to Saudi Arabia, where he had been sentenced to prison.
A decade later, after his release, he left for Syria and joined one of al-Qaeda’s groups there.
Al-Sudani’s latest book “Fighting is Now” is the 4th one in his series, following his books: “On the Edge of the Sword, “Thoughts of a Prisoner” and “The Forgotten Prince.”
A new approach
“Fighting is now” diagnoses the needs of the organization in Sudan by studying the situation on the ground, and concludes that:
- There is a need for a strategic and smart mindset.
- designing a conflict strategy.
- Studying the military and political abilities of (the Mujahideen) and their capabilities.
The writer shows his optimism for action, as he points out that “Sudan has met the objective conditions for a successful guerrilla war since it is a vast country with diverse terrain and climates of mountains, forests, deserts, that allow movement and manoeuvre easier”.
The author proposes three practical methods to manage guerilla tactics in preparation for advanced stages:
- Hit and run phase.
- Balancing phase
- Decisiveness and empowerment phase.
“Each stage has its corresponding military, political and media tools and the appropriate formations and structure in structure and organization,” he says. Abu Hudhayfa wrote.
According to his vision, it is necessary to establish rear bases in the mountains and forests, with urban groups that operate within cities in the form of cluster cells that carry out special attacks and missions under the command of an intelligent leader.
Why al-Qaeda has no presence in Sudan?
The author asserts: “Jihad requires a vanguard organization, an entity that unites the (jihadists), uses their capabilities and coordinates their efforts, to be the spearhead when fighting the enemy.”
Such a statement means that there is no al–Qaeda-affiliated group in Sudan, so the organization seeks to recruit Sudanese and establish a presence strong presence in the country particularly after the failure of an attempt by the Somali al-Shabab to control territory in Ethiopia last July before to move to Sudan.
The ousted Islamist regime in Khartoum hosted Osama bin Laden, and Carlos the jackal and turned the country into a safe haven for Islamist groups in the early 90s. However, under international pressure, the al-Bashir government had to review its policies and ended this embarrassing relationship.
U.S. intelligence officials confirmed that Sudan has provided accurate, important, useful, and current information about the terrorist groups. The latter also avoided started to avoid Khartoum.
“In Sudan, there is no al-Qaeda or ISIS organization like the case in Iraq, Somalia and Yemen”, said a private source and a researcher in the organizational and strategic thought of terrorist movements, who spoke to Sudan Tribune under the cover of anonymity.
” Sudanese extremist groups at home have remained inconsistent and not connected to each other. They only migrated and joined the Organization abroad,” the source added.
Political analysts point out that terrorist organizations take advantage of the political instability, or the collapse of the state or the army, such as what happened in Mali, Libya or Somalia.
“In Sudan, the state is still cohesive, and the military and intelligence can combat any expansion of such organizations”, said Osama Elias, a political analyst.
Unsuitable environment for terror groups
The prevailing patterns of religiosity in Sudan prevent the emergence and spread of terrorist organizations on its territory, no matter how severe the political and security crises, believe researchers.
“These jihadist groups have no social or ideological incubator here, as the Sudanese religious mood tends to Sufi religiosity and derives its culture from it,” said a researcher in Islamic Thought and Professor at Sudanese Universities Mohammed Almajzoub Saleh.
“Moreover, the general intellectual space in which Islamist movements take place in Sudan is characterized by a belief in freedom and tends to prioritize dialogue. So, such (extremist) calls will not find an intellectual incubator for them in Sudan,” Saleh added.
Moody criticism
Religious extremism experts say that jihadist groups issue moody judgments that are not based on fixed criteria, pointing out that in his recent book Abu Hudhaifa al-Sudani celebrated the statement of the Union of Scholars, Imams and Preachers against the Burhan – al-Hilu agreement on the separation of religion from the state, despite his strong disagreement with them. In the same vein, he attacked the same Islamist current, saying: “Those delusional members of the so-called broad Islamic current did not understand the essence of the Islamic State. They are a current that lost its compass.”
For his part, Mohamed Majzoub stresses that this is the rule in extremist organizations. “They begin with the takfir – declaring a Muslim a disbeliever – and enmity with those around them. This is the nature of the extremist discourse.”Al-Majzoub adds that there is another dimension to the emergence of these jihadist movements. He adds that Sudan’s political turmoil is not enough to pave the way for the spread of terrorist organizations, according to Abu Hudhaifa’s vision. He goes on to say that these organizations are not a product of internal conditions, but rather a creation of external hands, but in the end, they remain a strange phenomenon separate from Sudanese society with all its religious tolerance and Sufi sects.