Losers and winners in upcoming census

The Sudanese security service have confiscated The Citizen daily newspaper today, Wednesday. The following article is one of the articles of today edition.

By Mayom Bul Atem

April 16, 2008 — If you are a believer in the census, that it is following the schedule stipulated in the CPA, then you should think twice! Section 1.8.1 of the CPA vividly states: “Population census throughout the Sudan shall be conducted and completed by the end of the second year of the Interim Period”

Going by the dictates of the CPA, the beginning of the interim period started on July 9th 2005. Counting two years from that date makes July 9th 2007 the latest day in which the population census should have taken place. That day has long passed.

Not conducting the population census exercise within the prescribed timeframe, no matter how valid the reasons for postponement were, amounted to a breach of the CPA.

The National Congress Party, NCP, which is responsible for failing to conduct the census before or on July 9th 2007, should have been held accountable for the violation of the CPA. Their acceptance to conduct the census, albeit late, should have given SPLM and the government of Southern Sudan an excuse to disregard the validity of the exercise. The SPLM and GoSS should have used that opportunity to delay the census process until concerns from the South are addressed.

Section 1.8.9 of the CPA says:
“The percentages agreed herein are temporary and shall either be confirmed or adjusted on the basis of the census results”

Perhaps those who negotiated the CPA should let us know which percentages they were referring to. But I would speculate that the power sharing arrangement – where the NCP and its partner in peace, the SPLM, shared power using estimated aggregates – would be revised whereby the South will be allocated a certain fraction of power based on its proportion in the entire Sudan. This fraction, according to the CPA, would be determined by the population census. This is worrying to SPLM and GoSS given that more than two million Southerners will be counted in the North.

Thus, GoSS’ council of ministers did not wake up at the zero hour for nothing. They foresaw the looming danger that comes with the census results. Their decision to defer the census in order to give time for sufficient preparation in Southern Sudan is not farfetched. What is in doubt though is why they announced the deferment of census in Southern Sudan just two days before the exercise commences. They slept too much to an extent that it was too late for them to act. Their resolution to postpone the census at the last minute would have somehow amounted to a violation of the CPA, something that would be so damaging to SPLM in the eye of the international community.

Thanks to President Kiir for taking a decisive action and reversing the resolution passed by his council of ministers. His move essentially bailed SPLM and GoSS out of being accused of lacking commitment in the implementation of the CPA. GoSS and SPLM should have resolved to defer the census exercise before immense resources were wasted. Just like the North refused to participate in 2007 because of Muslim pilgrimage, GoSS should have put conditions that it would not be ready to participate in the census process because a number of outstanding issues needed to be resolved first. These conditions should have been laid out so that Sudanese and the international community would be aware of the impending obstacles to the census. This way, no one would be surprised by the decision taken by the council of ministers.

In a country such as Sudan where everything is subjectively aggregated and equally refuted, many issues would have been solved by census. Putting aside the issue of tribe and religion, other pending cases in Southern Sudan such as which state harbors the highest population and which of the three regions is the largest population-wise will soon surface. Unfortunately, the population census will not be conclusive given the fact that Southerners are still scattered in Sudan and abroad.

In Southern Sudan, two regions will be losers – Bahr el Ghazal and Upper Nile. The census exercise will create quarrel rather than an objective result given that more than two million IDPs, most of them originating from Bahr el Ghazal’s Aweil and Warrap, will be counted in Khartoum and another good number of IDPs, of which most come from Upper Nile’s Jonglei, are holed up in Equatoria where they will be enumerated. Similarly a number of counties and payams, especially those in Equatoria, that have been deserted because of the LRA attacks and atrocities will be negatively affected. Should the LRA and the government of Uganda sign the peace agreement soon, the indigenous inhabitants will return to their original counties and payams while their services will be allotted to where they were counted.

According to UN estimates, Warrap has the largest population followed by Jonglei. Aweil comes third. These estimates are likely to be nullified once the inconclusive census takes place. With large number of IDPs from the above states being counted out of their home states, it is obvious that the concerned home states will be on the receiving end, disadvantaged to the core. With the possibility of secession, the IDPs in Khartoum will have to go back to their ancestral land whether they like it or not. And the profound dislike for the IDPs in Equatoria means that it is just a matter of time before they return to their original states. Therefore, counting them wherever they are will give these places undeserved privileges when it comes to government planning for the allocation of services.

One thing I did not understand from GoSS authorities is the way they persuaded Southerners not to go to their payams, but rather be counted “wherever they are”. If the results of the census would be used for the distribution and allocation of government services then it was prudent that Southerners be counted wherever they feel at home. Advising them not to go to their home areas is a mistake, I think.

I also feel very strongly that the results of the census will be used to implement government policies that will contradict the slogan of “Taking cities to people.” With a lot of economic disincentives in the countryside, many Southerners find it appropriate to migrate to cities and towns. The alarming increase in the population in Juba should be a living testimony. Using the census results to map out government services will give priorities to already overpopulated capital cities, giving little room for small towns and villages. This phenomenon will continue to encourage rural-urban migration.

Let us hope that the government of Southern Sudan accepted to take part in this sham called census not necessarily to use the results for statistical analysis, allotment of services and government planning purposes, but as a gesture to the NCP and the international community that SPLM/GOSS is a trustworthy partner that honours the CPA.

While the participation in the population census portrays its commitment in the implementation of the CPA, GoSS should start thinking of a new census to take place shortly after referendum. Unity or separation, the new regional census must be carried out to address all pertinent issues GoSS wants to use in the appropriation of services and making government policies. These issues must include religion, ethnicity. And the process will have to be conducted when almost everybody, including those in Diaspora and IDPs, is at “home.” Home being the place where one has the legal right, be it customary or otherwise, to settle or live.