Analysts say ongoing conflict in Sudan could spill over, cut oil transit
April 18, 2023 (JUBA) – A South Sudanese analyst has expressed fears that Sudan’s conflict could spill over, harming its economic and security situation.
Armed clashes between Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted on April 15 in heavily populated parts of the capital, Khartoum and spread to other cities, including Darfur region. The clashes follow weeks of rising tensions between the two forces over security force reform during negotiations for a new transitional government and was preceded by the SAF and RSF jointly overthrowing Sudan’s transitional government in October 2021.
“The war in Sudan is neither good for Sudan nor South Sudan and for the region. It will have dire economic consequences in both countries. With limited capacity, the war in Sudan will be a huge humanitarian issue in South Sudan. It means an influx of civilians fleeing conflict and searching for safety in Chad, Libya, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic,” Garang Madut, a US-based academic told Sudan Tribune in an interview on Wednesday.
“Some of These countries are also struggling on their own,” he added.
Since South Sudan’s cessation in July 2011, successive governments in Juba and Khartoum have done very little to wean themselves off this heavy dependency on oil rents and budget without diversifying the economy. This has led to a bloated public sector characterised by patronage and to a shortage of jobs for new graduates—especially those without the necessary connections and networks.
Dependency on oil has also exposed South Sudan’s economy to fluctuations in global oil prices.
Majak D’ Agoot, a former deputy chief of the South Sudanese army (SSPDF), argued that the instability of Sudan would feed into Africa’s Western Sahel region which faces multiple political, social, economic and security challenges being exacerbated by terrorism, violent extremism, communal violence, and banditry.
He expressed concerns over the situation in Sudan, describing it as “complex”.
“This is a complex situation. There are growing concerns that terrorist groups could exploit these political uncertainties to entrench their position and expand their activities to other parts of West Africa – and beyond,” he stressed.
Meanwhile, the African Union’s Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) has strongly warned against external interference in the crisis in Sudan and demanded the warring parties to “swiftly embrace a peaceful solution and inclusive dialogue.”
The council urged regional countries and other stakeholders to support ongoing efforts to return Sudan to the transition process towards a constitutional order.
(ST)