Assault on Uganda rebels would hold big risks

By Daniel Wallis

June 8, 2008 (NAIROBI) — A threatened offensive by regional forces against Uganda’s Lords Resistance Army rebels has little chance of crushing the elusive band and could even worsen instability in a swathe of central Africa.

The prospects of a return to war have increased since the failure of talks to end two decades of conflict in April, when guerrilla boss Joseph Kony left mediators waiting for days in a damp forest clearing and then failed to turn up.

The most obvious sticking point in the negotiations was whether Kony, wanted by the International Criminal Court, could avoid prosecution if he quit the bush — but both sides questioned each other’s good faith from the start.

Uganda said last week it had agreed with Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo to fight Kony’s rebels if there was no return to talks. War has looked even more likely since a suspected LRA attack last week killed 23 people in south Sudan, in the very place local officials had tried to broker peace.

“The peace process has no direction but the military option is also an uphill task, not just because the location of the LRA commanders remains unknown,” said Ugandan analyst Levi Ochieng.

“It’s mere guesswork … We don’t know Kony’s strength, his preparedness, or that of the armies that would go after him.”

These days, Uganda is not the country suffering the most direct impact of a war in its north that killed tens of thousands of people there and uprooted 2 million.

The rebels have shifted beyond the country’s borders to one of the world’s most inaccessible areas, from where they have become another destabilising factor in a string of conflicts over a chunk of the continent rich in oil and minerals.

For years the rebels operated from the Imatong Hills in southern Sudan, before moving into the forests of eastern Congo in 2005. They are dreaded by locals in both nations, emerging from their own long civil wars.

Recent LRA raids have added to fears for the stability of oil-producing south Sudan, where a 2005 peace deal with the northern government has looked increasingly shaky since north-south clashes last month over the Abyei region.

This year, Kony’s fighters also attacked Central African Republic, edging closer to the Darfur theatre of conflict entangling the northern Sudanese army, Darfur rebels, Chad and guerrillas battling to topple the Chadian government.

‘OPTIONS NARROWING’

Security chiefs from Uganda, Congo and Sudan agreed in Kampala this week that Kinshasa’s forces would lead any attack on Kony, with the support of U.N. peacekeepers based in Congo.

Supporters of military action argue there are few alternatives after the Western-backed talks failed to lure from the bush rebels charged by ICC prosecutors with massacres, rapes and the abduction of thousands of children.

Few see chances for restarting talks soon.

“The political process in Juba is over,” said one Western diplomat who was involved in the talks in south Sudan’s capital.

“That’s clearly what the LRA were saying when they attacked Nabanga,” referring to last week’s raid in southern Sudan that killed 23 people, including 14 south Sudanese troops.

“The political options are narrowing and more people are more supportive of the military option.”

Congo hosts MONUC, the world’s biggest U.N. force, which could help coordinate any assault on the guerrillas’ camps.

“It’s not rocket science,” the diplomat said.

Left unchecked, some fear Kony may offer LRA services to the region’s highest bidder, turning his well-armed and experienced force into guns for hire and spreading more insecurity.

While best known to the outside world for atrocities including mutilating its victims, and seeking to rule Uganda by the Ten Commandments, the LRA is very much the creation of regional rivalries as well as Ugandan ethnic animosities.

It was used for years by Khartoum to destabilise Uganda, which in turn was backing what were then rebels in south Sudan. Some regional analysts believe Khartoum could choose to revive support for Kony that it says it cut off a decade ago.

‘FRAUGHT WITH DANGER’

Hardened LRA fighters could certainly affect the balance of forces in other conflicts.

Opponents of an offensive predict it would likely fail, could result in heavy military casualties and would expose Congolese civilians in areas dominated by the rebels to retaliatory attacks.

“It’s fraught with danger and chances are it would fail,” a senior Western envoy told Reuters from Kampala. “The LRA are increasingly alienated in Garamba (northeast Congo) so there would be retaliations against the local community that could be quite awful … We think it is a very bad idea.”

The last attempt to tackle the rebels in Congo ended in disaster in January 2006 when eight Guatemalan commandos were killed in a botched raid and gun battle with Kony’s forces.

Analysts said all sides at this week’s trilateral meeting acknowledged what was at stake now the Juba talks had stalled.

But given simmering tensions between Kampala and Kinshasa over Uganda’s invasion and looting of eastern Congo in the late 1990s and, more recently, over oil discoveries around Lake Albert on their border, some wondered how much goodwill existed.

“I doubt the Congolese army has the motivation, morale or even the interest in carrying out a military option against Kony, given the forced relations with Uganda,” Ochieng said.

(Reuters)