US administration walking tightrope over relations with Sudan

September 7, 2008 (KHARTOUM) – The US administration in its final days is facing the dilemma of trying to break a deadlock in Darfur through throwing carrots to Khartoum without infuriating the public opinion which may hurt GOP at the upcoming presidential elections.

Yesterday the Sudanese political parties’ commission called on Khartoum to fully normalize ties with Sudan in an unusual nudge by a body dominated by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP).

But this move can easily be understood in light of the statements made by the Sudanese foreign ministry spokesman Ali al-Sadiq to the Los Angeles Times.

“We want to do something with the Bush administration before they leave. Our experience with the Democrats has been bitter” he said.

Khartoum has every reason to fear a democratic president in the White House. The democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama has surrounded himself with individuals considered “hawks” towards Sudan.

This includes Obama’s running mate Joe Biden and his foreign policy adviser Susan Rice who both called for military action against Khartoum.

In April the Bush administration was reportedly was holding talks on a series of steps to normalize relations between the two countries. The report leaked to the New York Times by an unidentified US official described as being “critical of the administration’s position”.

“This reckless and cynical initiative would reward a regime in Khartoum that has a record of failing to live up to its commitments” Obama said at the time.

The talks collapsed after US special envoy to Sudan failed to bridge differences between the North and South over the oil rich region of Abyei.

Later the top US official on Africa, Jendayi Frazer, said it was unlikely that talks about normalizing relations with the United States would resume before the U.S. elections in November.

Sudanese officials who spoke to the Los Angeles Times said that the US and Sudan scheduled to resume direct negotiations in mid-September. But in Khartoum foreign ministry officials said they have no knowledge of such a date.

According to observers the Sudanese government is in a more vulnerable position since the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced last July his intention to seek an arrest warrant for Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir.

In July the US made the highly unexpected move of abstaining from voting on a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution extending the mandate of the UN-African Union (AU) hybrid force in Darfur (UNAMID).

A UN diplomat at the time told Sudan Tribune that Williamson was behind the last minute change of heart with regards to the UNAMID resolution.

The US raised an 11th hour objection to a paragraph incorporated in the resolution that takes in consideration, concerns expressed by the African Union delegations, Libya and South African, that any indictment of Sudan President by the ICC might jeopardize the Darfur peace process.

In explaining the US abstention Wolf said his government strongly supports UNAMID but that the “language added to the resolution would send the wrong signal to the Sudanese president Al-Bashir and undermine efforts to bring him and others to justice”.

John Prendergast, founder of Enough Project, an anti-genocide advocacy group, said the ICC case strengthened the U.S. negotiating position.

“This gives the U.S. unprecedented leverage” he said. “The U.S. has the chance to do something constructive in the dying days of this administration”.

Under discussion is a proposed agreement by the US to not fight Sudan’s bid to postpone an impending ICC arrest warrant for Bashir, officials said.

In return, Khartoum would agree to concessions, including accelerated deployment of United Nations peacekeepers, increased anti-terrorism cooperation and improved humanitarian assistance for the western region of Darfur.

The Chicago Tribune reported that on the anti-terrorism track Washington wants the extradition of four terrorists believed to be hiding in Sudan but gave no details.

But according to Williamson’s predecessor there is little hope for any improvement in relations between the two countries before Bush’s term is over owing to domestic pressure.

“Politically, in Washington, it’s untenable” Andrew Natsios, a former U.S. special envoy to Sudan said.

In anticipation of that, Bush administration officials have been approaching with caution, fearing that further public backlash might hurt McCain’s campaign. They’ve urged Sudanese officials to make bold gestures and demonstrate a commitment to reform so that any deal will be acceptable to the American public and Congress.

Sudan has been promised a lift of sanctions and removal from list of states that sponsors terrorism when negotiations for North-South peace were underway.

But the Darfur crisis erupted and the mounting reports on the magnitude of violence and civilian toll made it difficult for Washington to make any such moves.

“We are very interested in normalizing relations with the U.S.,” said Nafi Ali Nafi, the powerful presidential advisor who is leading Sudan’s negotiating team. “But if people believe we are cornered, we won’t do it”.

(ST)