ICC crisis more than Sudan government can handle: Analyst

September 10, 2008 (KHARTOUM) – The Sudanese government is overextended in its dispute with the International Criminal Court (ICC), a political analyst said today.

“The ICC crisis is well beyond the political and diplomatic capacity of the government” Diaa Al-Deen Bilal a political analyst at the daily Al-Rayaam newspaper told Sudan Tribune.

The ICC’s prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo announced in mid-July that he requested an arrest warrant for Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir.

Ocampo filed 10 charges: three counts of genocide, five of crimes against humanity and two of murder and accused Al-Bashir of masterminding a campaign to get rid of the African tribes in Darfur; Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa.

“The only option on the table right now is suspending the indictment of Al-Bashir. This creates a situation of political blackmailing by which world powers can extract more concessions from the government” Bilal said.

Bilal further said there is little chance that Khartoum will resort to legal channels to settle the ICC row.

“Legal steps taken to confront the ICC will only serve as recognition of the court. This is certainly not something the government is willing to do” he added.

The UN Security Council (UNSC) referred the situation in Darfur to the ICC in March 2005 despite the fact that Sudan is not a member of the Hague based court.

The Rome Statute forming the basis of the ICC, allows the UNSC to refer situations in non-state parties under a chapter VII resolution court if it deems that it is a threat to international peace and security.

However Sudan insisted that it is not bound by the UNSC resolution because signed the Rome Statute but never ratified it. Khartoum has refused to hand over two suspects including a government minister indicted by the ICC last year.

Following Ocampo’s announcement Sudan has warned of severe repercussions if the ICC judges issue an arrest warrant.

“The danger posed by this indictment is that the NCP [National Congress Party] will never agree to step down which may drown the entire country into anarchy” the Sudanese columnist warned.

“The president will be held hostage to this indictment until the government some sort of deal with the international community that resolves all outstanding issues” he added.

Asked about what he expects the government to do if the arrest warrant is issued he said that expulsion of the UN missions in the country is the most likely scenario.

However he ruled out any military confrontation with the Sudanese government and the peacekeepers.

Yesterday the Sudanese Justice Minister Abdel-Baset Sabdarat warned of a political “tsunami” if the ICC proceeds with its case against Al-Bashir.

“Things will be done differently and it won’t be business as usual like many people think” Sabdarat cautioned. However he declined to elaborate.

The African Union (AU), Arab League, Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) called for invoking Article 16 of the Rome Statute which allows the UNSC to suspend the ICC prosecutions in any case for a period of 12 months that can be renewed indefinitely.

Libya and South Africa sought to force a suspension in the UNAMID resolution but failed to get the required number of votes and instead accepted a watered down paragraph taking note of the AU concern on the ICC move to seek an arrest warrant for Al-Bashir.

Following that failed attempt, none of Sudan’s allies in the UNSC including China and Russia have tabled a formal resolution.

Any such resolution introduced appears to have little chances of surviving a vote in the UNSC particularly with the veto wielding members such as US, UK and France opposing it.

However countries like France have hinted that they will not stand in the way of a deferral if Sudan cooperates with the ICC by handing the two suspects wanted by the court.

(ST)