Challenges and opportunities of negotiation with the left-out groups in South Sudan
Francis G. Nazario
Achieving political stability and building lasting peace in South Sudan requires addressing the root causes of conflicts, promoting good governance, and fostering economic development. Unfortunately, South Sudan has been grappling with internal conflicts and political instability since 2005. Various opposition groups since then have emerged, challenging the government’s authority and the leadership of President Salva Kiir. What happened on 15 December 2013 in Juba started simply as an – SPLM leadership debate on democracy within the Party but ended up as a civil war. The rightful aspiration of the members of the SPLM to contest for the position of the chairman of the Party was once considered a rebellion, and that was unacceptable. The struggle for power as it evolved perfectly reflected the scenery of the animal farm, with many people rejecting the fact that some people would like to be more equal than others.
As announced by the country authorities and a few steps taken towards its realization, there is no doubt that there will be a new round of negotiations between the South Sudan government and the opposition left-out groups in Kenya mediated by the able General Lazaro Sumbeiywo. These negotiations present both challenges and opportunities for the country’s future. They are crucial in achieving lasting peace and stability in the country but also fraught with complexities that need to be addressed for successful outcomes.
The challenge facing the negotiations between the South Sudan government and the opposition left-out groups is the growing mistrust between the parties and the leaders. Lack of genuine engagement in the talks hindered the success in the previous rounds of negotiations in Rome (Italy). Since 2005, the South Sudan government has engaged in several negotiations with many opposition groups. It had reached and signed several peace agreements with many of the groups. None of these agreements negotiated and inked has been fully implemented, as all were dishonoured. This sad reality has created a significant level of animosity and suspicion, making it difficult for any of the new opposition groups to engage with the government in meaningful dialogues, as they all know how peace agreements end in South Sudan.
Building trust and confidence between the opposing parties is crucial for the success of any negotiation process, but this is a daunting task given the recent history. Peace negotiations between South Sudanese are often characterized by a series of provoked defections, changes of alliance and betrayals, which is an intriguing phenomenon of political infidelity. Another challenge is the lack of a unified opposition front, with various splinter groups having different agendas and evolving demands. The government has often exploited that reality and successfully continues to divide the ranks and files of the opposition, masterminding defection and maintaining its grip strongly on power. The loud echo of the failure in the governance of the country doesn’t seem to bother the leadership of the government and the ruling party as it is preparing to present the same leadership branding and programme for the upcoming election.
The fragmentation within the opposition, in general, reflects its weakness, but within the left-out groups further complicates the negotiation process. It will be challenging to address the diverse interests and grievances of all parties involved. Coordinating and aligning the positions of these disparate groups is essential for reaching a comprehensive and inclusive agreement that addresses the root causes of the conflict. The issue of power-sharing and resource allocation will also be another major challenge in the negotiations. Peace negotiations literature and past experiences have demonstrated that the distribution of political power, resources, and access to public services remain the most contentious issues that often lead to deadlock in negotiations. South Sudan government and the opposition left-out groups must strive to find a way to address these issues fairly and equitably to all parties. Failure to reach a consensus on these critical issues could undermine the sustainability of any peace agreement reached.
Despite the challenges, the negotiations between the South Sudan government and the opposition left-out groups also present significant opportunities to silence the guns and achieve lasting peace and stability in the country. One such opportunity is the potential for inclusive governance arrangements that accommodate the interests of all parties currently in conflict with the government. By ensuring that all stakeholders have a seat at the table and a voice in decision-making processes, the negotiations can pave the way for a more inclusive and representative government that reflects the diversity of South Sudan’s population.
The negotiations also provide an opportunity for the left-out groups to join the ongoing peace process and build on what has already been achieved in the Revitalized peace agreement and the national dialogue. Contribute to the efforts intended to address the root causes of conflicts and work towards sustainable solutions that promote peace, reconciliation, and healing. By engaging in dialogue and negotiation, the South Sudan government and the opposition left-out groups should thrive to identify the underlying grievances that have fueled conflicts and continue to heighten tensions in the political scene. Explore and develop strategies to address them effectively.
This process of truth-telling and accountability is essential for building a foundation of trust and reconciliation that can help prevent future conflicts. Another opportunity presented by the negotiations is the potential for international support and mediation. The involvement of the Republic of Kenya, besides the other regional and international actors, can provide valuable expertise, resources, and diplomatic leverage to facilitate the negotiation process and ensure compliance with any agreements reached. International support can also help hold both parties accountable for their commitments and provide a framework for monitoring and evaluation to track progress towards peace and stability in South Sudan by ensuring the full implementation of the agreement.
The negotiations between the South Sudan government and the opposition left-out groups are critical for achieving just and lasting peace and stability in the country and the region. While there are significant challenges to overcome, including deep-rooted mistrust, fragmentation within the opposition and latent war for the leadership of the opposition. The opportunities would include the potential progress towards inclusive governance and reconciliation, as well as the valuable support of Kenya and the international partners for the peace agreement negotiation and its implementation. By addressing these challenges head-on and seizing the opportunities presented by the negotiation process, South Sudan can move closer towards a future of peace, prosperity, and unity for all its citizens where no one will be left out or behind.
Dr. Francis G. Nazario, Independent consultant, PhD Political Science, former ambassador, and former United Nations official. Can be reached through: [email protected]