Is the Qatari Initiative expected to deliver peace to Darfur

By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman

October 13, 2008 — Political analysts indicate, in relation to the Qatari Initiative on Darfur, that even if the Darfurian rebel movements groups agreed to present a unified delegation to sit together with a common agenda and position to the negotiating table with the current Sudanese government, the talks are likely to give birth to a premature agreement which will vanish swiftly akin to the previous approaches that have failed miserably. The factors which contributed to the lack of success in the earlier attempts included the endeavour of the then arbitrators and mediators to achieve a restrictive bilateral agreement between the movements and the government of Sudan (GOS) without taking the rest of the issues of Sudan on board; secondly, their obsession with the unification of all the Darfur rebel groups under a single banner, an impossible task. Moreover, the international actors tried to impose ‘ready-made’ peace recipe versions such as the 2005 Naivasha agreement, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that helped to put an end to a three decades war in the Southern Sudan for the resolution of the Darfur crisis without the use of new mechanisms and tools especially in the light of variables that affected the world since that time.

If the Qatari government aims to succeed in its endeavors, it needs to learn lessons from previous pitfalls and failure of all the local, regional and international initiatives on Darfur. The CPA is a great achievement for the people of the South of Sudan and they worth it; but it is not a perfect fit for Darfur’s JEM who has national agenda in its Manifesto which calls for power sharing in the context of rotational presidency, proper federal civil state formed of seven regions Vis: Northern, Southern, Eastern, Central, Kordofan, Darfur and Khartoum. This is along with wealth sharing based on population density and positive discrimination and pursuant to precedents. Land rights according to long lasting tradition of Hawakeer to be preserved and compensation for the losses incurred by the people of Darfur both collectively and for the individuals.

Observers speak in muted tones saying that, to date, Qatar has not put forward clearly defined its supposedly new peace initiative for Darfur. It is understood that Qatar has been sending envoys to meet with the parties, regional players and the international community to identify the different viewpoints, which means that the development of the Qatari-led initiative will undoubtedly take a long time to bear fruits! On the other hand, those keen on the stability of Sudan and other experts in the Darfur affairs acknowledge that the success of the State of Qatar to resolve the Lebanese problem does not give them a magic wand to make the complex thorny issue of Darfur resolved successfully.

Experts believe that if it is assumed that the State of Qatar has got a genuine initiative in place aimed to lead to a coherent package deal for resolving the Darfur issue, it should happen within the framework of a comprehensive solution for all of Sudan and not only for Darfur, given the rebellions and armed conflicts in the West and East, North and of course in the South of the country all of which suffer from the scourge of the trinity of marginalisation, poverty, ignorance and disease, let alone the state of neglect and lawlessness everywhere.

Following on from the statement by the official spokesman for the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), it is understand that they are not with or against the Qatari initiative, the nature of which is not known until this moment. The JEM spokesman continued to say that they give no consideration to the initiative in the event of its link with the Arab League which classified the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) as a terrorist organization in May the tenth 2008 when the rebel group attacked Khartoum using its code-named Operation Long Arm (OLA) which took the world by surprise. The Arab League has supported the government of Sudan unreservedly in spite of the mass killings and other atrocities in Darfur 6 years on and failed to support the international action to protect the Sudanese citizens of Darfur.

The Darfur rebel groups, especially JEM, assertively say that under the current auction of initiatives which race each other and accelerate to resolve the crisis of Lt General Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir who has been indicted on the 14th July 2008 by the ICC Chief Prosecutor Mr. Luis Moreno-Ocampo who requested an arrest warrant against him., rather than a genuine search for a solution to the crisis in the western Sudan region of Darfur, they will not accept any initiative of that type. Short – term limited solutions of that kind are obviously set for defeat and would not change the situation for the better.

Many observers incessantly ask and earnestly wonder why the National Congress Party (NCP) government move about hurriedly and hectically from an initiative to an initiative to resolve the crisis in Darfur, which it has created, while Omar Hassan Ahmed al-Bashir has the absolute power, by virtue of the totalitarian nature of the regime he preside on, to take immediate resolution to end all outstanding issues of Sudan, including Darfur problem? A swift answer was at hand; firstly the NCP regime has got neither the will nor the ability. Furthermore, the NCP government is run by the security and intelligence services led by the powerful clique formed of Nafie Ali Nafie, an adviser to Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, Salah Abdalla Gosh, the head of Sudan’s National Security and Intelligence Services (NSIS) and others of the ilk who have created a corrupt, loser and failed police state detrimental to the livelihood of the Sudanese people as witnessed by the outspoken Mr. Pagan Amum, former Minister for Cabinet Affairs, and current Secretary General of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A).

In the prevailing dilemma, those who are concerned about the plight of people of Sudan in Darfur, ask the question: what needs to be done now?! The obvious answer is that the government of Sudan knows what the people of Darfur want and the only way forward is in the hands of the NCP regime who needs to express its wiliness to cooperate with the International Justice at The Hague and stop the killings and respond to the legitimate demands of the citizens of Sudan in the region of Darfur through genuine and serious talks for lasting peace on the negotiation table with the main Darfur rebel movements, representatives of IDPs/ Refugees and the Darfuri Civil Society Organisations without evasion, prevarication or delay.

While the people of Darfur welcome constructive initiatives proposed to host peace talks to end the five year war in the western Sudanese region of Darfur under the overall leadership of the UN/AU Joint Chief Mediator Gibril Bassole, they are skeptical about the so-called “The People of Sudan’s Initiative”. This plain lie has been planned to be launched on Thursday 16th October by the NCP President Omer Hassan al-Bashir in an attempt to ward himself off from the predicaments of the heinous crimes he has committed against the innocent civilians in Darfur or to shield him from his impending fate at ICC when the arrest warrant that awaits him authorised by the Judges of the Criminal Court at The Hague.

Observers say: “After all, we are waiting to witness the contents of the Qatari Initiative for Darfur, ‘Rumors Fly, Fingers cross’!!

Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman is the Deputy Chairman of the General Congress for Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). He can be reached at [email protected]