Poor harvest deepens economic, security crisis in Somalia – report

By Daniel Van Oudenaren

October 18, 2008 (WASHINGTON) – A poor harvest in much of Somalia heightens the risks for populations currently in a state of acute food crisis or humanitarian emergency, according to a technical report released Wednesday by a monitoring organization. Aid organizations call the situation in Somalia the worst in over a decade, but this report argues that it still does not approach the severity of the 1991-1992 famine.

In Somalia, April to June is the main rainy season, called Gu, and the harvest follows usually in August. The report, released by Food Security Analysis Unit – Somalia (FSAU), is the finalized version of fieldwork data from July as well as later analysis workshops and technical verification meetings with partners.

Overall this year, Gu cereal production estimates for southern Somalia are about 80% of the 2003-2007 five year average and only 58% of the post-war average (1995-2007).

“This season’s poor production level is mainly attributed to below normal and poorly distributed rains as well as added factors of pests, poor tillage capacity and poor irrigation infrastructure systems,” states FSAU.

The Somali economy relies on effective market interaction among pastoralists, agro-pastoralists and farmers, as well as cattle exports and remittance payments from Somalis living abroad. But the poor production this year follows three years of low harvests as Somalis face elevated global food prices, weakening currency, civil conflict and a war against Ethiopian and African Union troops.

Since the Ethiopian invasion in December 2006, excessive printing of new money and reduced business activity have precipitously pushed down the value of the Somali shilling against the U.S. dollar, according to FSAU market data from the towns of Baidoa, Bossaso, Galkayo, Hargeisa and Mogadishu.

Hundreds of thousands have fled Mogadishu city—including 61,000 in the past 30 days, according to the UN—as a result of intensive urban fighting that has involved mortars, artillery and even once white phosphorus bombs.

Approximately 180,000 children are acutely malnourished among populations in south-central Somalia and displaced populations in the north, according to the report. Some 26,000 of these are severely malnourished, over half of them in Shabelle and central regions, where Mogadishu civilians are taking refuge.

The food security risks are not universal, given varying rain and flood levels, coping mechanisms, social status and security arrangements. But the report suggests that those most at risk include the urban poor, those without access to remittances from abroad, internally displaced persons (IDPs) in general, pastoral and riverine populations in the Gedo region, pastoral and agro-pastoral populations in Bakool, agro-pastoralists in middle Shabelle, farmers in lower Shabelle and agro-pastoralists in Hiran.

RELIEF FUNDING AND OUTLOOK

While international donors have contributed USD$423 million of $660 million requested this year by humanitarian organizations — most of it for food — many sectors are seriously underfunded, including only 22% funded for agriculture, 9% for education, 16% for health and 8% for safety and security of staff and operations, according to current data compiled by OCHA, the UN humanitarian coordinating agency.

Another major shortfall is $12.7 million lacking out of $29 million requested for water and sanitation.

The report’s outlook for southern Somalia is grim: “most poor households will be unable to meet their minimum (food) energy requirements over the next six months (Aug-Dec ‘08). On average, prices of maize as well as sorghum in the Shabelle regions have tripled since Jan ‘08 and are almost five times higher when compared to July ‘07 prices.”

Notably, many of the same ecological and security conditions also apply to the Somali region of Ethiopia. “Approximately 1.9 million people in the (Somali) region require emergency food assistance,” claims OCHA. “Ongoing conflict-related market access restrictions will continue to affect food security in five zones in Somali Region” from October to December 2008, predicts Famine Early Warning Systems Network in an outlook report.

COMPARISON TO THE 1991-1992 FAMINE

The FSAU report argues that the current situation is different from the 1991-1992 famine and is not yet a “humanitarian catastrophe.” Compared to that famine, today there is greater access to humanitarian aid, less intense civil war, less livestock herd depletion and no total crop failure.

FSAU notes that there have also been significant structural changes like the growth of the remittance economy and development of the private sector since the collapse of the central government in 1991.

Looking back, FSAU’s perspective is that “in total, an estimated 300,000 people are thought to have died from the (1991-1992) famine. When compared to other global famines such as the Chinese Famine from 1958 to 1961, where an estimated 30 million died, the absolute numbers of deaths may seem small; however, when compared to the proportion of the population affected, the ‘91-92 Somalia famine is considered one of the worst of the 20th century.”

The methods used by FSAU include rainfall monitoring, market surveys, conflict assessment surveys, livestock surveys, nutritional surveys, and anthropometric surveys that measure the upper arm. The data can be compared to historical data and baseline and livelihoods information.

(ST)