ICC Vs. SUDAN: Calculating the cost

By Kwathi Ajawin

November 26, 2008 — What makes it difficult for some to join the debate on our Sudanese forums on the issue of the ICC is the bickering; wrangling and impatient of some who are very quick to label others as pro or against Al-Bashir. Forums should be for people to freely analysis and contribute their ideas and others to counter the logic without attacking the personality of the contributor.

The argument that SPLM should support the ICC because the NIF will not honor the CPA is very short-sighted, because the ICC is aimed at bring justice to the people of Darfur and it has nothing to do with the implementation of the CPA. So far the ICC is asking for the indictment of the president Al-Bashir and in course of that process it might topple the government of Khartoum which is one of the pillars of the CPA.

Is the implementation of the CPA under the mercy of the ICC and the situation in Darfur?

Some suggested that if SPLM think that the CPA is not being implemented then they should act now to protect the CPA instead of waiting for ICC mercy. The last time we heard chairman Kiir on the CPA he was satisfied with the implementation of the CPA.

We must learn from Ahamed Shilby of Iraq who thought the American tanks will easily topple Sadam regime and crown him president of Iraq. Now almost six years of the Iraq invasion, the war is taking a huge toll on the US, the global economy and Ahamed Shilby is no where on the political horizon. Above all the American electorates have voted for a change in a popular rejection of war and its sisters.

Some call the Darfur rebels as our allies and friends, well politics is the game of interest and it is clear that the Darfur rebels have very little in common with the SPLM. People have learnt a lot through experience that a common enemy is not an enough foundation for building alliance. Enemies of today might be friend of tomorrow we are told. Darfur have a lot in common with northern Sudanese as they are all the political north and the main political agenda of most if not all northern Sudanese politicians is maintaining the unity of Sudan and spreading Islam at any cost. One should only read the peace plan of the Darfur rebels and you will come to the conclusion that they do not endorse the self-determination for South Sudan. Is it a surprise! to many the answer is no, as some of the Darfur rebels leaders were once NIF Jihadists who fought against the independence of the South.

Darfur rebels and the Jalaba of SPLM think naively that Self-determination for Southern Sudan can be nullified and unity made attractive by nominating a Southern Sudan to the presidency of Sudan. Well, if that simply the case, I guess they should have made late Dr. Garang the president of Sudan instead of VP.

Having a Southern Sudanese as a president might make unity attractive to some but not Southern Sudanese who will not sale their freedom cheap with one time presidency. No one in his sound mind will commit such a sin especially when all know that Jacob became Israel and not Esau who couldn’t calculate the cost.

ICC scenario is something to be celebrated by only the boneheads, because if Khartoum decides to face the ICC then the possibility of bringing down the whole enterprise is there and the parasitic GOSS might be the first to collapse before the government in Khartoum comes down. The last JEM fail attempt on Khartoum exposed the Coup de tat mentality of Darfur rebels and clearly illustrated that the claim for justice before peace is nothing but a thirst for power. Yes, the aspirations of the Darfur people are legitimate but at the same time should not be allowed to be misuse by few for personal gains. The cost of Justice before Peace must be well calculated.

ICC can only be supported if the total independence is a move in response to the Al-Bashir confrontation with the international community. Nevertheless, the question is what preparation has been made by SPLM and GOSS to make that transition less costly?

Let us not just bit the war drums especially those of us who did not join the war last time and I mean those who did not physically go to the ground as combatants.

ICC indictment is bigger than Al-Bashir as a person and must not be taken lightly by any concern southern Sudanese.

As the clock tick the start of the count down of Al-Bashir indictment, the question should be, is the South ready to declare its independence from the parliament in Juba or are some still plotting to take over the government in Khartoum.

Be aware of the Somalia fiasco, if the ruling elites in Juba run away to enjoy the millions abroad, you have either the junior officers in SPLA take over the South or a big junk of the South might fall under LRA.

Those who count on America and the ICC must remember that we still deal with the same mentality that thought “chock and awe” will be an easy fix to Iraq situation. What Darfur might get from Obama administration is a No Fly Zone.

Yes, America can multitask but some project that the honey moon between ICC and Washington might be put on halt and Ocampo might be asked to stay on his lane and watch his speed. Though Sudan is very different from Iraq still all the ICC players should know that it is biblical to calculate the cost

The author is a Sudanese church and community leader based in Washington, DC., and can be reached at [email protected]