SPLM must seize upcoming election to recreate Sudan

By Paul Bor Gatwech

December 28, 2008 — Barack Hussein Obama has become a genius and an emerging phenomenon in world politics not only because he is a gifted orator but also because of his ability to recreate America and the world through his positively inspired spirit. In his address to his supporters during the night of winning American presidential elections, Hussein keenly stressed that if anybody has doubt for a black man to be president of the United States of America let him think twice.

If Hussein who hails from a minor community in United States of America could recreate the American political structure, why can’t we recreate Sudan political structure, for that matter, being the major community in this country? Could somebody from SPLM repeat Obama statement to the people of the Sudan after the night of forthcoming general elections? Unlike SPLM that took 21 years in struggle culminating to final opportunity to expeditiously recreate the Sudan on signing of the CPA, Obama movement took only two years to recreate American political structure through general elections. Why can’t we make it in the Sudan if it happens in America? Somebody may pessimistically argue that America has a stable political system making it easy for Obama to climb the ladder to the top. But don’t we have political muscles at the moment to create such a system that we can climb up?

The SPLM then a rebel movement and now a major political party have waged fatal guerilla warfare against the successive governments in Khartoum. Unlike seizure of some of the major towns mostly in the southern part of the country, it has done little in terms of shaping political dispensation of the country before signing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in January 2005 with National Congress Party.

Through provisions in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, Sudan is deemed towards a new birth. If implemented in a good faith, CPA can recreate Sudan to a shape and form it never attained during its existence over the last centuries. CPA provides a rare opportunity for a voluntary unity of the people of the Sudan from Wada Alfa to Nimule through democratic transformation.

The Sudan’s democratic transformation embedded in the CPA is clustered into a single big event scheduled to take place after four years in the Interim period. This important event is the General Elections. The next great event, which is Referendum in 2011, will be an opportunity for Sudan to disintegrate into small weak states. But now Sudan is a great nation. It has immense political and economic influence across the region and the world contrary to its weaknesses in governing itself. How if it become a democratic, free and a united country? How far will great Sudan be?

Most of Sudan analysts believe that guerilla warfare in the south, east, and the west towards the centre can do little to solve Sudan’s stagnant problem. Alas, it could just make things worst. But a free and fair election conducted in every part of the country can solve Sudan’s problem once and for all. How? Because it would give the people an opportunity to decide not leaders on how they can be governed something contrary to the past situation of Sudan.

But what is the prospect of election taking place in Sudan? Will the parties to the CPA delay or completely decide to bypath elections? Recent comments from SPLM leadership are ambiguously misleading if not misrepresented. The SPLM, as a party, seems to be backtracking from participation in upcoming elections due to alleged technical or legal shortcomings while few allude that the fear in election might be due to misguided leadership ego at the top brass of the party. Why could a party that have struggled and sacrificed million of lives over the last decades to change Sudan simply backtrack on this important event at the last moment? What befalls SPLM at the moment to shy away from national issues such as the general elections? Who is pushing the Great SPLM to be a southern party rather than a Sudan’s party? Has SPLM become, of late after July 2005, a separatist movement? And if so, will it successfully secure the south if cornered at Juba? The question to our southern staunch separatist who might be pulling the rings against SPLM advancement beyond Renk (southern town at the border of the north) at this moment is: Is it not safer for us to decide on our own fate than allow others to do so?

For example, let assume that SPLM contests in the upcoming Sudan’s General Election and wins both GOSS and GONU Presidencies with the flag bearers being the current Chairmen who happens to be southerners. What would happen in 2011? It would be these two guys negotiating and deciding on the procedures and processes of your Referendum. But let assume again that SPLM loses or even just refuses to participate in the upcoming presidential election simply because some leaders within the party are pessimistic on the elections or optimistic over the referendum. What would proceed this action? It is like saying that let other parties decide on our behalf for the remaining provisions of CPA including the referendum and wait for that decision at Beijing Hotel in Juba.

Moreover, few staunch southern separatist especially at the top brass of the party have forgotten how referendum is intractably linked to preceding events such as the forthcoming elections, border demarcations, troop redeployments, establishments of democratic and governance institutions and enactment of laws etc. They tend to just shut their eyes for the moment waiting for 2011 referendum. But without these in place, your final cake (referendum) is not on the table.

After all, my argument here is not to provide mechanisms on how we could positively arrive at referendum. I am conspicuously convinced that southerners are better off if they seize power in a united Sudan than squeeze themselves into Juba. This is the belief of my fellow late comrade Dr. Garang and other heroes and heroines in the struggle. It is not that we are people who cannot govern ourselves though it is scientifically convincing that the more you remain your own selves the more you lack diverse opinions to sustain yourselves. Like for the case of Somalia, which is now more than a failed state, it has only one religion, one clan and a single language. But where is Somalia in the world? Lost for good! The Somali people are there, but their nation is lost for good in the world arena. We, southerners, think that our problem is because we found ourselves together with other race in the Sudan. However, the problem is not how diverse Sudan becomes but the misuse of that diversity by few individuals at the top.

Sometimes somebody could nervously be worried that if we remain to ourselves at this moment in Juba as southerners, we shall end up entrenching our tribal kingdoms like Somalis who are lost in euphoria of their clanic kingdoms than building a strong national identity as one people. We have to lose our strong tribal affiliations that evidently emerged to be the biggest threat to our national identity before we cry for southern independency .We now have ample opportunity through SPLM machine to rule the Sudan and operate in diverse environment that will challenge our current political ego.

After the fatal demise of late SPLM charismatic leader comrade Dr. Garang, SPLM swiftly installed comrade Salva as its head. The move was historic and exclusively promising to the marginalized masses of the Sudan that it was not the beginning of the end of their struggle. Comrade Salva together with other comrades took bold actions that will remain to be remembered in the history of the Sudan. One of his decisions that remained as his legacy was his bold action to unite fragmented armed factions of southerners under the SPLA. This action made comrade Salva a southern hero because it has done a great deal for existence of peace and security in southern Sudan. However, comrade Salva forgot that the shoes that he took over were not only for a southern hero, but Sudan’s hero. His leadership policies in the party shifted from dealing with Sudan problems to dealing with southern problems. This shift of his leadership policy is evidently demonstrated by his intention to stay in Juba rather than in Khartoum as if southern presidency has constitutional seniority to Sudan first vice presidency. Or the Chairman might have forgotten that the south is not yet an independent state; and not only that but the fact that prospect of southern independency can still be manipulated by those who sit in presidential palace in Khartoum he abandoned.

The shift of policy from a new leader of SPLM has also adversely affected the vision and mission of this party by failing to consistently appeal to the aspirations of the marginalized masses of the Sudan. It left its members in other regions such as Nuba Mountains, southern Blue Nile, the west, east and far north redundant, disorganized, and hopeless and to pray of other parties.

Currently as election is looming, northern opposition parties have gathered their forces to build a strong coalition to oust NCP from power. SPLM is not an exception in this strategic political conspiracy. And if NCP is removed from power by forces other than SPLM or a coalition that is not headed by SPLM, it will be the end of CPA and the aspirations of the people of southern Sudan on referendum.

The other development is that SPLM might be contemplating to partner with NCP in presidential elections by withdrawing their candidate from presidential contest and throw their support behind NCP candidate. This is to make sure that CPA survives through 2011 in the hands of the two signatories. But the irony here is that who knows about intention of NCP on referendum? And why does SPLM choose to just depend on the mercy of NCP in keeping CPA intact after elections while it has the possibility to set the rules of the game?

The best option to control trends of any event in the Sudan is for SPLM to win the presidential elections either on its own or through coalition with any other party. SPLM has the ability to mobilize the marginalized masses either individually or through their parties or respective movements due to its outstanding message it has for the Sudan. It is easy for SPLM to attract a good number of people from the east, west, south, and far north of the country. SPLM should not limit its influence only to the south, but must explicitly exert its political muscles to all parts of the Sudan because it has got the ability and profound solution to Sudan’s decades long political nuisance.

To conclude, let me allude to the fact that the Obama victory to seize power in the United States of America is surely a success history that inspired all those who are despised anywhere in the world. It is a story that offered courage and inspiration to all marginalized communities in every nation of the world. SPLM, having achieved less during struggle to transform the deformed system of Khartoum can now do the unthinkable in the Sudan through the upcoming general elections. Through robust network and strategic position CPA has bestowed, SPLM has formidable ability to organize the marginalized masses of the Sudan to capture power through the elections.

It must approach the opposition parties both in the south and the north, help resolve Darfur conflict and build a strong political coalition to overthrow NCP from power. But a coalition that overthrows the ruling NCP from power without being headed by the SPLM remains fatally disastrous to CPA and peace and security in the Sudan. SPLM must not squeeze itself to being a southern party while the Sudan remains intact as one nation. It has to reclaim and entrench itself into the centre of Sudanese political arena and must remain the only party that aspires to make Sudan a free, democratic and prosperous country.

The author holds Bachelors of Science Degree and now studies Masters of Politics and Policy in Deakin University-Australia. You can reach him through [email protected].