Sudan Elections: Rough road ahead

By Steve Paterno

April 5, 2009 — The long awaited and anticipated Sudan’s general election is finally announced to take place seven months after its schedule time. The announcement came in the midst of long and deliberate delays in enacting legislations and establishing of required structures for conducting the elections. This election is a benchmark that signifies a crucial stage in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). As a benchmark, the elections will ultimately lead to referendum in South Sudan and other marginalized areas as stipulated in CPA. Besides, it is also a milestone for Sudan’s transition to democracy.

With the election calendar already publicized and fast approaching referendum in the horizon, there is bona fide urgency for certain measures to be accomplished and landmark legislations to be enacted in unmistakable short period—within less than ten months. The sheer urgency and the sensitivity of the issues involved make the process more difficult and treacherous.

One of the first measures to be taken is the immediate release of 2008 census results, which are necessary for determination of legislative constituencies. Unfortunately, the census results are hotly contested between the CPA partners; the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM). Sudanese population count has ever since been a sensitive matter even before it was conducted. After delays, postponements and more delays, the SPLM reluctantly accepted the census to take place. When the counting was finally conducted in 2008, it was a total mess, resulting into waste of time, resources and manpower.
Just weeks after the census was conducted, none other than Salva Kiir, the chairman of SPLM and President of South Sudan who was to quickly doubt the results of the entire exercise and declared it “not fully reflect the real picture of the population of Sudan in general and Southern Sudan in particular.” Up until now, the results of the population of Sudan is not officially released. In play, are attempts by the NCP, which is in full control of the census results to manipulate the figures to suit its agendas. For example, in one of its computed figures, the population of South Sudan is reported to have been reduced into a mere three millions, less than what it was during the independence in 1956. The implications for such a figure when translated into legislative constituencies for the upcoming elections will under represent South Sudan in the national Legislative Assembly in Khartoum. Members of parliament of Khartoum State alone at the national level will outnumber the ones from the whole of South Sudan region by nearly three times.

Thus far, as a resolve, the SPLM has indicated that they will reject the census results if it compromises on the populations of South Sudan. The SPLM officials warned the citizens of South Sudan to prepare themselves for a row over the results of the census. This, however, puts the SPLM in a box and in a precarious situation as far as the elections is concerned. The catch is that by accepting the elections to take place; the SPLM also by virtue are forced to agree on the outcome of the census as a prerequisite for elections. The other remote alternative and possibility is that unless the SPLM and NCP agree to compromise in using other population projections and standard mechanism as a fair form of representations to substitute the population representations in the elections based on the failed census. Otherwise, this will have serious negative repercussions on the conducts of free and fair elections if left unresolved.

Equally important and related to the populations as well as to elections is the demarcation of the borders which at the end of the day determines territorial constituencies for holding elections. The implementation of borders demarcation is remotely behind schedule and the delays have largely been for two major reasons. First, the South North borders are highly disputed between the SPLM and the NCP. At stakes are deposits of oil flowing in the border region and also the possibility of discovering more of such natural resources in the region, which both parties lay claims on. Secondly, the border region provides strategic military advantages with the deployment of the troops as stipulated in the CPA. Therefore, both parties are willing to stake claims to the region for the deployment of their troops. Without arbitration on the status of Abyei and clear demarcation of borders, it is going to be highly difficult to conduct elections in environment where territorial constituencies can never be determined. Immediate demarcation of borders must be enacted in the event that elections are to take place and in this case, this must be done within ten months.

In order to have free and fair elections, the creation of the atmosphere conducive for expression of opinions and thoughts, especially through media must be put into laws. Since the signing of the CPA, the efforts to pass legislations dealing with freedom of press and opinion have been frustratingly difficult as both the SPLM and NCP cannot agree on the framework of the legislations. In Sudan, freedom of expression has been a distant dream. The press is heavily censored and citizens are denied their rights to express their opinions and thoughts in a free environment. According to the Freedom House report released in 2009, Sudan ranks among the ‘worst of the worst’ among the world in abusing freedom of its citizens. Such can only add into hurdles already making the conducts of free and fair elections difficult.

The enactment of Sudan’s National Security Act, which will abolish arbitrary arrest, stop detention without due process of law, and curb on powers of security organs, has been bitterly disputed between the CPA partners. Today in Sudan, the security organs are still exercising absolute power of brutality. The security has even grown more deadly in the recent months, particularly in the aftermath of International Criminal Court (ICC) issuance of arrest warrant against President Omar al-Bashir. The chief of security in Khartoum Salah Gosh is irresponsibly issuing public warnings against citizens and the security apparatus are stepping up illegal arrests of the citizens they deemed threats. This of course, if allowed to continue will not create conducive atmosphere for free and fair elections.

The Referendum Act is already supposed to be passed into law, however, since it is not yet enacted, it is high time that the act becomes law now. Not only the CPA stipulated that it is passed, but the current parties to the CPA hold better chance to guarantee its passage as oppose to leaving the fate of such milestone legislation to the uncertainties of the next members of Legislative Assembly who may after all not be keen to maintain the CPA, especial the notion of entertaining self determination for South Sudan. Anything can happen in the upcoming elections, including hostile parties to the CPA swiping into power. The other reason why the legislation is a matter of urgency is that the next Legislative Assembly will not have enough time to enact any meaningful laws before the referendum takes place. By the time the scheduled elections take place, the referendum will be only months away, not even a year to spare.

In conclusions, these hurdles including others not mentioned here, will potentially not only impede fair and free elections, but negatively reflect into the highly sought out and heavily priced referendum of South Sudan and other marginalized areas as stipulated by the CPA. If these important benchmarks measures and landmark legislations are not prioritized in the manner of their urgency, the future of entire Sudan is in jeopardy as the next events will ultimately mark the end to the CPA and a possible resumptions of an all out South North war. The delays in holding elections have already shaken the fate of referendum and any slight move in wrong direction may as well push it down the cliff. As they say, Sudan is at the ‘crossroad,’ and indeed it is.