What next for Sudan when NCP and SPLM lose the elections

By Jacob K. Lupai*

April 8, 2009 — What next for Sudan when the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) lose the 2009 general elections is a conceptual situation where neither is the dominant party in government either in Khartoum or Juba after having miserably lost the elections. To elaborate on such a situation three main questions spring to mind. The first is why should the NCP and the SPLM lose the 2009 general elections? The second question is will the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended a deadly civil war in Sudan hold and finally, will unity of Sudan be made more attractive when the NCP and SPLM are out of power in Khartoum and Juba respectively?

To answer the first question is to assess the extent the CPA has been implemented and the extent people are satisfied. However, this has been mostly elaborated on by different people familiar with Sudanese political scene. There may not be any need to do it here again but may be a highlight will suffice. The second question will be answered by looking at the CPA itself which in most probability was a bilateral agreement between the Government of Sudan dominated by the NCP and the SPLM which did not include any other political party from Southern Sudan. Finally the last question is on the concept that the party other than the NCP may be flexible in maintaining the unity of Sudan. Although the CPA was a bilateral agreement, the excluded political parties both in the North and South accepted the CPA as an important document because they were also included in the power sharing protocol and because for the first time in decades the people of Sudan would enjoy peace and the resultant peace dividends particularly in Southern Sudan. Southern Sudan was the most devastated by the civil war.

Usually political parties of different persuasion field candidates in general elections. The expected 2009 general elections in the Sudan will not be an exception. Both northern and southern political parties will naturally field candidates for State Governors, National Assembly Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly and State Legislatures. Of interest are candidates for the President of Sudan, President of the Government of Southern Sudan, National Assembly and Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly. Assuming no party boycotts the 2009 general elections each party is likely to field a candidate for the President of Sudan. The major northern political parties may each field a candidate. Of the major political parties in the North the Umma Party may stand a better chance. However, its western Sudan base is now in turmoil that success may be a mammoth hill climb for the Umma Party. It will be a close contest with the NCP which has all the government backing and resources at its disposal to hold onto the position of the President of Sudan hence power.

One way of beating the NCP in the next general elections is the active resuscitation of the almost dead National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This is for all the parities to be only represented by one candidate to contest with the candidate from the NCP. With an active campaign it is most likely that the combined votes for the NDA will outnumber the votes for the NCP. If this happens it will be indeed a peaceful revolution in ousting the NCP from power without a shot being fired. The NDA President-elect may be flexible in maintaining the unity of Sudan unlike the dogmatic NCP. The change may bring the South closer to the North hence unity of Sudan may be made more attractive than under the NCP. More of this will be discussed later in the text.

In the South the President of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) will be directly elected by the people as in the constitution. Like in the North there are different political parties in Southern Sudan. However, the SPLM is the dominant party by the virtue of the CPA. According to the CPA in the GOSS the SPLM is represented by 70 per cent while the other southern political parties regardless of the size of their individual membership are represented by 15 per cent and the NCP is also represented by 15 per cent. However, the expected general elections may altogether alter that arrangement.

Another layer in terms of the general elections is the election to the National Assembly where all the political parties will contest the seats. Each party will try to maximise its share of the number of seats. As the President of Sudan is elected directly by the people he or she will not be necessarily of the dominant party in the National Assembly. Some parties may gang up to make the majority to block the President in taking up issues that may not be of interest to the other parties’ constituencies. Similarly in Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly the party that may appear to be the larger one may not produce the President of the GOSS. As the President is directly elected by the people the charisma of the candidate may carry the day. However, the issue here is not about the electoral process but the implication of the situation where the NCP and the SPLM fail miserably to win in the 2009 general elections to form the government either in the North or in the South respectively.

The first question was why the NCP and the SPLM should lose the 2009 general elections. It may be simple to give a straight forward answer but it will take much more to elaborate on the answer. The NCP may lose the 2009 general elections because of exclusivity and a dogmatic system the NCP pursues as a strategy to hang on to power by all means available for the imagined divine right to establish a puritan Islamic state on earth with all the accompanying hypocrisies where Moslem Darfur is burning. It is unfortunately taking long for the NCP to realise that this is unacceptable to average Sudanese who yearns for peace at all times with fellow human beings and equitable development for a decent standard of living in this 21st century. The SPLM may also lose the 2009 general elections because of being perceived as an ardent promoter of tribalism and corruption, ineffective in providing security to citizens and incompetent in delivering basic services. The SPLM seems to be helplessly watching the demise of Southern Sudan like a powerless bystander. Such a party by all standards is unfit to govern. A change by far is preferable. Some members of the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly are already panicking that they will be voted out in the next general elections because of the lack of development in the counties they represent. Wounded heroes and heroines who sacrificed dearly for the CPA went on the rampage in Yei town for having not been paid salaries for seven months. It is unacceptable for somebody who may be the sole breadwinner in the household to go for a month without a salary leave alone having to endure miserable seven months of hardship without a salary. It is difficult to understand how there is money for contracts whose end results are at best unclear but no money for salaries. All this is under a government where the SPLM is the dominant party. This all does not reflect well on the SPLM as a political party aspiring to win the next general elections.

People may be forced to think twice before voting for the SPLM that is associated with what may amount to institutionalised tribalism, rampant corruption and incompetence in providing security and basic services to people. What the SPLM had achieved in the battlefield is now history. People now need good governance but not a system riddled with a sort of institutional tribalism and corruption, and utter poor delivery of basic services. It is only hoped that the battle for reforms that are widely acknowledged as necessary for a better way forward will be won in the 2009 general elections.

The next question was will the CPA hold when the NCP and the SPLM lose the 2009 general elections. Since the CPA. Since the CPA was an agreement between the NCP as the sole party in the Government of Sudan and the SPLM it will not be without a struggle for the CPA to hold when the NCP and the SPLM lose the 2009 general elections. However, all the southern political parties are in support of the full implementation of the CPA. Whether or not it is the SPLM as the majority party in the GOSS there won’t be a climb down on the implementation of the CPA which is what unites all southerners. Southerners will do whatever in their power to stop the derailment of the CPA. For the conservative northern political parties they will happily disown the CPA by claiming they were not a party to it. However, the guarantors of the implementation of the CPA are the Inter-governmental Authority for Development (IGAD), the international community, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and importantly the masses of Southern Sudan. This suggests that even when the NCP and the SPLM lose the 2009 general elections the CPA will still be there to be implemented. Dr John Garang de Mabior the founder of SPLM/SPLA onetime in an interview said tempering with the CPA would be suicide. It is hoped that sweeping away the NCP and the SPLM through the ballot box for the reasons highlighted above will not also mean sweeping away the CPA.

The final question was will unity of Sudan be made more attractive than under the NCP when the NCP loses the 2009 general elections. The answer may not be simplistic yes or no. One evening hearing an interview with Mr Sadiq El Mahdi, the Umma Party leader on Miraya FM Radio in Juba one couldn’t believe one’s ears. Among other things Mr El Mahdi said he believes in peaceful co-existence and equality of ethnic groups, and religion should not be used to divide people in Sudan. It was not clear whether Mr El Mahdi had abandoned altogether subscribing to Sudan as an Arab Islamic state that he had laboured for in his political career until he was unceremoniously toppled by a group of Islamists. If that was the case for an Islamist like Mr El Mahdi then that must be considered indeed a revolutionary development. This could be good for unity of Sudan. However, as a veteran politician Mr El Mahdi might have been carefully playing his cards. He was well known for indecisiveness during his premiership. He is also skeptical of the CPA as only the work of the NCP whose leader had toppled him and the SPLM that had given him a headache in his premiership. Mr El Mahdi cannot be trusted that he has now become a true Sudanese nationalist who is above religious and ethnic divide. During his premiership he had downplayed the Black African identify of Sudan but exaggerated the Arab Islamic identity. Mr El Mahdi now seems a reformer by admitting that clinging to Arab Islamic identity of Sudan will not make unity attractive to non-Arab Islamic Sudanese. He may have sensed that only a mentally unbalanced non-Arab Islamic Sudanese will vote for a united Arab Islamic state. What is truly needed is a wind of change to sweep through Northern Sudan for it to be possible to make unity more attractive than under the NCP.

Four years into the six years of the period of the CPA, the NCP and the SPLM have not proven their ability and commitment to deliver and serve the people of Sudan as one expected. People are not to blame when they cast a protest vote for a change. Partly due to their poor record as the dominant parties in administration the NCP and the SPLM may suffer a protest vote hence a humiliating defeat in the 2009 general elections. Hopefully by the date of voting the NCP and SPLM would have reformed early enough to swing people’s negative attitude to a positive one. However, this may also depend on how the other parties present themselves to the electorate.

In an informal interview with anybody the author came across in what may be considered a sort of rapid appraisal, mixed feelings about the SPLM were expressed. People felt abandoned as the SPLM was seen not to be caring about citizens. Only a few sharks who are benefiting astronomically may sing high praises for the SPLM. Ordinary SPLM supporters are disillusioned and this may be where the SPLM will suffer a protest vote in the 2009 general elections. It seems a department of communication in the SPLM does not exist to collect information on what people’s impressions are about the SPLM. It could also be that the SPLM ignores people’s expressed needs. Endowed with resources Southern Sudan is not a poor region. The poverty that exists is partly manmade. Resources seem to be concentrated in few hands in the CPA era and this may not be strange in a sort of institutionalised tribalism and corruption. It is a pity that it seems Dr John Garang de Mabior took along with him the vision of New Sudan to the grave. However, let’s hope that the SPLM has not reached a stage that it is too deformed to be reformed.

*The author is a regular contributor to Sudan Tribune and can be reached at [email protected]