South Sudan Population Census: Its Weaknesses and Evils

By Tut Gatwech

May 23, 2009 — On Thursday (21st May) the national Central Bureau of Statistics in Khartoum officially released the results of the Fifth Population and Housing Census in the country after taking more than twelve months of processing. It was expected to take only three months to complete the processing. The Census was conducted in accordance with the power and wealth sharing provisions of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The Census was provided for in the peace deal to give a scientific calculation on allocations of power and wealth in Sudan based on its results during the interim period and before the general elections.

The official results released on Thursday put the overall population of the country to 39.1 million. South Sudan population is put at 8.2 million, making it 21% of the country’s overall population. This suggests that the South is less than 1/3 of the country’s population. My points of concern will be based on this unfortunate outcome of the census in the South. The South Sudan population census was a complete failure, to say the least. But who is to blame?

It has become a tradition in the South to blame almost every fault, obstacle or failure on the North. This is a disease and weakness in us. Of course, the North of Jallaba may not wish the South well and even sabotage its good efforts. But should we not differentiate between what we should blame the North for and what we should blame ourselves for?

Before the census was carried out there was a consensus outcry in the South that the timing was not in favor of the South because of many obstacles including the wet seasonal climate. Insecurity in many parts of the region and very poor roads were cited among the challenges. The cabinet of the Government of South Sudan passed a resolution which was published by the media suspending the exercise until necessary preparations were completed. The process to conduct the census in April came to a stand still.

Surprisingly, our President Salva Kiir Mayardit, who is our only representative in the Presidency in Khartoum, instead directed the Southern Sudan Commission for Statistics and Evaluation to conduct the census as scheduled by the North and agreed in the Presidency meeting. Salva Kiir knew the South was not well prepared and yet he agreed in the so-called Presidency to carry out this aborted census. The Presidency is composed of the President, Al-Bashir, the First Vice President, Kiir, and the Vice President, Taha. It passes its resolutions by consensus, not by majority. Had Kiir stood his ground, the census would have been delayed at least for few months until the time the South was well prepared. There was no need to hurry at that particular point of time! If it took twelve months of delay in processing the results to release them, why not give few more months for preparations? That was our first weakness and grave mistake!

Then the matter was fuelled by the evils of the so-called Southern Sudan Commission for Statistics and Evaluation (SSCSE). This technical body did not do its national duty well. This is partly because of the unpreparedness of the officials as I mentioned and partly because of their own making. First of all the recruitment and deployment of enumerators and their supervisors left a lot to be desired. In many states or counties in the South, these recruitments and deployments were not made on time according to the general talks of public from different states. The Commission delayed such vital processes and blamed it on lack of sufficient funds to do that. This resulted to too many populated areas being neglected.

Surprisingly, in some selected areas enumerators and supervisors were quickly assigned and deployed to those areas in abundance. Then the issue of census forms became another problem. Some areas were provided with more than enough forms while others with far less forms. In some cases the Commission deceived officials in areas with fewer forms that they would also use plain papers and put the details of the head counts. They told county officials that these details on plain papers would later on be copied to the right forms in Rumbek where the processing would be done. These massive plain papers were later on rejected during the processing as revealed by some Commission officials. And even dossiers of forms were rejected during the processing on the pretext that they were dirty and rejected by the machine the Commission was using in Rumbek. The few officials at the processing site could only manage to copy names they could recognize or identify themselves with in this region infested with tribalism and sectionalism. The rest were just disposed of as useless toilet papers. What a blunder!

The Commission’s chairman, Isaiah Chol Aruai, has done his best in his home state, Jonglei, which ranked first with 1.3 million people. This is not surprising though. The Census results have not yet officially revealed the breakdown into counties. But people should not be surprised when the tiny Bor Dinka counties of Twic East and Bor populations reach hundreds of thousands in number. But for those who know the territory of Bor Dinka and their settlements, the two counties of Twic East and Bor plus their Duk could be combined into one county if truth were to prevail. It was late SPLM chairman, Dr. John Garang de Mabior, who came from Twic East and simply promoted them as separate counties (not sub-counties) without the required populations. A single county like that of Uror County of Lou-Nuer, which is neighboring them, could equal these three counties combined. But as leaked out from the county census results, Uror County’s population is put far less than these unpopulated, but politically promoted counties. Alas! Isaiah Chol Aruai knew what he was doing! But can we blame it on the North? That is a big NO!

For Central Equatoria state to rank 2nd with 1.1 million can be understood in many ways. First the state hosts populations from different states, mostly in Juba and in other towns. Second, the successful recruitment and deployment of enumerators, supervisors plus easy access to villages contributed to the success. Third, this success would also be attributed to the proximity of the Commission’s office in particular and the Government of South Sudan in general. Unfortunately some people were not counted even inside Juba capital despite the advantages.

However, for a tiny Warrap state to rank third with a fake figure of more than 972,000 is strange. Warrap state is the smallest state in the South in terms of both land mass and population settlements. For it to reach almost a million people is a joke. Did it get the third rank simply because the President of South Sudan is from the state? Isaiah Chol would be in better position to explain this bizarre population and how it sprung up suddenly. Instead of getting surprised about the “strange” rise in Darfur population as he stated in the media, others are as well surprised about the strange figure of Warrap state.

States like Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Unity and Western Equatoria were expected to be close to, more than or equal to Jonglei state population. The surprising fall in such populations is what the Commission chairman can better explain to the people of South Sudan. He should not only get surprised in the fall of South Sudanese population living in North Sudan which is put at half a million only, but also expect the people of South Sudan to question the fall in populations of such huge and densely populated states in the South.

My point is that the so-called population census was just a joke and waste of our meager resources. Now that this unfortunate result is released, what is next? The Presidency in Khartoum is said to have already approved the census results. Even if our President Salva Kiir complains as usual after approving the whole thing himself, that will not help. It was funny to read it in the electronic media that the President said he was told in the Presidency that the census results would only be used for planning purposes. Are power and wealth sharing arrangements based on the census results not part of the ‘planning purposes’ the Presidency was talking about? Is it not provided for in the CPA? Is it not enshrined in the 2005 Interim National Constitution of Sudan? Is it not confirmed in the Electoral Law which was passed in the National Assembly? Mr. President, don’t be so naïve!

To me, unless we don’t believe that more than 90% of the people of South Sudan will vote for separation in one and a half years, I would go for the acceptance of this ugly census results hoping that a true census will be conducted soon after independence. This is to avoid unnecessary political crisis with the National Congress Party (NCP) over the contest of the results. The South is to blame itself for these unexpected results, and so we have no moral ground to cause a crisis over the results of the census which we conducted ourselves.

The results will definitely hurt us in the delimitations of constituencies for general elections because we will get fewer representatives as a result of fewer constituencies to be represented in the national parliament. It will also hurt us in the new wealth sharing arrangements based on the results because we will lose some ministerial positions by 7% less from the CPA’s provision of 28%.

But any political crisis on census results would delay the conduct of 2010 elections and so would 2011 referendum. Our main goal is to get to the referendum. If we cannot get there smoothly, let us try to get there even roughly. This roughness began even in 2005 when our late chairman, Dr. Garang was still with us. If you can remember the first violation of the CPA was on Abyei Boundary Commission (ABC) Report. The Report was presented in the Presidency about two weeks after Dr. Garang was sworn in as the First Vice President. It was rejected in the Presidency meeting in the presence of Dr. Garang. The second one was when the appointments to ministerial portfolios came. We lost the national Ministry of Energy and Mining to the NCP. The NCP claimed that Dr. Garang had already approved it to go to the NCP. There was no written document from late Dr. Garang to support either side’s claims on his proposal.

Anyway, the census results are not the only weaknesses or failures in the South. It is just among so many failures on vital issues. We may also fail the elections as well since the public think the Electoral Commission is headed by people unfavorable to the cause of the people of South Sudan. The SPLM is not also prepared to reach the other marginalized populations in the country with its candidate for the office of the national president. No body knows who that national candidate would be and the time is running too fast. But the SPLM/GOSS leadership should be warned not to give a damn about the upcoming referendum. Let us not make a mistake to delay or fail the referendum in 2011. With ballot or bullet, South Sudan shall be free, and so let us prepare from now! Referendum is our main goal and key to final destiny!

The author is a youth member living in South Sudan. He can be reached at: [email protected]