External and internal security in S. Sudan seen as competing priorities

June 3, 2009 (GENEVA) – The Sudan People’s Liberation Army and other security organs face competing priorities between providing internal security within south Sudan and making preparations for potentially renewing the war with the Government of Sudan, according to the latest Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment Issue Brief (HSBA).

HSBA is a multi-year project administered by the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey. It has been developed in cooperation with the Canadian government, the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and other partners.

Sudan’s SPLA insurgency fought the government since it was formed by a mutinying batallion in 1983. It survived a major government-backed coup within the rebel command and decades of military pressure from Khartoum, but meanwhile millions of civilians died and fled their homes.

In 2005 it was recognized as the official army of the semi-autonomous region as part of the tenuous peace arrangement with its former enemy.

The security newsletter highlights the extent to which Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS)’s security planning continues to be driven by the belief that a future confrontation with the North is likely, and how this orientation constrains its ability to address insecurity and conflicts emerging within the South.

For instance, the report notes the concern of southern military figures at the failure to demarcate the north-south border, the failure to redeploy forces, “the ongoing recruitment of proxies,” and the underdevelopment of the treaty-mandated Joint Integrated Units.

“Despite the continued effort to adhere to the terms of the peace agreement, the GoSS’s security decision-making continues to be driven by what it perceives to be the unresolved conflict with the North. Security continues to be understood in terms of the need to prepare for a possible future war, which includes the need to address perceived proxy forces and other destabilizing groups and individuals operating in the South,” says the assessment.

Such preparations for this possible future war include troop build-ups in strategic border areas, the deployment of 18 tanks from Ethiopia to positions in Blue Nile in July 2008, and the more recently reported shipments of tanks and other weaponry from Ukraine, says the assessment.

Claiming that ceasefire violations by the North are distracting Southern Sudan from “equally destabilizing” security concerns within the south, the report authors recommend several measures. First, they urge better monitoring of the ceasefire and security arrangements of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Second, they urge donors to engage with the Government of Southern Sudan on security sector reform. Third, they suggest stakeholders to focus on peace-building rather than civilian disarmament.

The paper adds, “mediation of internal divisions and a renewed focus on South-South dialogue and peacebuilding could set the stage for the GoSS to plan for internal security, including by addressing unresolved issues relating to militia.”

HSBA is also responsible for occasional working papers, including one in January that was critical of the 2008 disarmament campaign carried out on the order of SPLA Commander-in-Chief Salva Kiir Mayardit.

The brief was based on research by the Small Arms Survey and London-based Saferworld.

(ST)