south Sudan: Can we avoid a possible post –election chaos ?

By Justin Ambago Ramba,

July 5, 2009 — As the people in the semi-autonomous south Sudan are doing their level best in their preparation to ever participate in an over all democratic elections since time immemorial, all accompanying developments point to the negative side. The widespread insecurity engulfing this area has by much been an issue viewed by most observers as a key hindrance to the long awaited constitutional right.

But may be a characteristic of the people of south Sudan, despite the reality on the ground which reflects nothing but a looming disaster, one still hears of some optimistic politicians who have either chosen to be indifferent or are intentionally under rating and hence down playing the graveness of the situation .

Have a look at whole communities in the Greater Upper Nile, wider areas of the Lakes State and some parts of Equatoria and you will realize that they are and still by large remain v deeply involved in tribal and inter-clan feuds.

Whosoever is sponsoring this havoc, the immediate concern here is that the citizens are strongly subscribing to these very ideas and are actively destabilising their own communities and neighbourhoods on routinely basis.

In many places like the Jonglei, the Lakes and Nassir it is unfortunate that the GoSS has to live with the fact that the SPLA fighters who are at the same time the official army of the south, are in no position nearer to having the situation under control.

Again the forcible disarmament may not be the way forward, for as long as the hostilities between these communities persist, they can always find ways to re-arm themselves.

In Nassir for example in the boats incidence, the SPLA soldiers became no match to the local tribal fighters from the Jikang Nuer tribesmen. Also earlier this week an SPLA soldier was hunt down by a man in plain dress presumed to be a cattle raider and the criminal still remains at large.

With all the loud noises made about transforming the ex-guerrillas into a conventional army which has drained the government coffers in the due process, the effect of this improperly done job is now disseminating bitter feelings across the whole of southern Sudan, with the civilian population becoming more exposed to insecurities within their immediate communities more than any time before.

The political situation in south Sudan today is clearly indicative of the gross weakness in the government leadership. The person at the top of the ladder has been an utter disgrace for most of his time in office. While Dr. Kiir seems to be struggling in running his offices in Khartoum and Juba, it is now beyond reasonable doubt that the ex – rebel leader who fought both liberation wars is equally no where near to bring the situation under control.

As a continuum of his piling up failures even his well paid hand picked aides are equally too corrupt to be of any tangible assistance to him. This can no longer be attributed to a work of coincidence as the majority of his over recycled ministers at the different levels of the government are also suffering from the same poor performance, a phenomenon that can only be attributed to the gross inherent defect within the ruling political party which dates back right to its initial inception in 1983.

Now the time has come for all those who contributed in one way or the other to bring Kiir into office to also share the blames for his failures.

Many of the current leadership were aware of what Kiir can do and what he can’t do. As such those who rallied behind his unpredictable leadership could have done so for one of the two possible scenarios.

There are those who led the Rumbek rebellion and as can be seen retrospectively they seem to have had a huge influence in consolidating Kiir in the top office in spite of the availability of other capable candidates within the movement.

This (Rumbek) group was already out to fulfil the coup that they started earlier and hence they found the fate granted chance offered by the tragic departure of the late chairman as a golden opportunity. They rushed in fast, consolidated Kiir in office and took over all the decision making positions as evidenced by the dramatic changes that happened in the already drawn cabinets that were left by the late chairman.

The other scenario would have of course been that the top SPLM personnel had to act instantly in order to prevent the junior officers from staging a real coup should the elders waste time in arguing over who should succeed the post. This group most likely were counting on the fact that there would be another chance at the party’s 2nd convention to sort out the leadership issue.

Sadly enough to the disappointment of the south Sudanese masses who had already reached their verdict of no confidence in Kiir long away before the convention, yet the SPLM’s political bureau in its most shameful move chose to reconcile positions as partners in corruption and embezzlement instead of carrying out the surgical amputation and through weeding in the party’s hierarchy as anticipated by the desperate grassroots members.

This latest development has denied the party its ability for any possible internal reform and so any idea to reform it now will only lead to more fragmentations as being the order of the day. And the saying goes,” too deformed to be reformed”.

All that has recently occurred within SPLM’s ranks are but the failed attempts at internal reformations and it was with the intension of avoiding this from happening during the 2nd convention in Juba, that the silent agreement was reached to maintain the status quo as a remedy though only deferring the inevitable that has now come back to haunt the party.

But even if the southern Sudanese are to forgive the unique circumstance under which Kiir became the team leader, yet there was the opportunity for the SPLM to have him replaced in the party’s second convention had it wanted to act to the interest of south Sudan.

However the SPLM chose to please and reward its big shots at the expense of the poor masses. It has now left the whole group in a very miserable position. No where on earth have we ever heard of a sitting president who due to his governments poor performance finds himself completely confused as whether to run for another term in office or not in an election which is bound to take place.

The natural decision after openly accepting the responsibility of the current miserable state of affairs in south Sudan, Salva Kiir and his crew should have just left the scene with dignity to occupy their rightful places besides their other gang members ( the scapegoats) of Arthur Akuen and Kuol Athian Mawein.

These two corrupt gentlemen were former SPLM’s successive ex-ministers for finance brought to offices and given protection by President Salva Kiir Mayardit and the Speaker of the SSLA, James Wani Igga, who in reality are the true architects of the flourishing corruption in the south as one appoints the thieves and the other protects them.

As the northern Sudanese are not prepared for the referendum which is expected to take place sometime in 2011, so is the SPLM unprepared for the coming elections of 2010.

Neither can the north boast of having made the Unity of the Sudan attractive to the people of the South, nor is the SPLM in any way to talk of its successful developmental projects that can make it win the admiration of the southern masses. We expect both to campaign using their achievements in the past four years since the signing of the CPA in 2005.

They ( NCP and SPLM), have nothing to point at as a tangible achievement in south Sudan, not even the very peace that they claim to have signed as there are many signs that the peace is in fact scrambling and at the verge collapse.

If at all we are to use critical analysis, we can easily conclude that many south Sudanese politicians have already written their careers death sentences, but also that President Salva Kiir has gone beyond that by throwing in a white towel in the Presidency ring in Khartoum.

For fairness sake if things are judged far away from any tribal sentiments, he (Kiir) is no longer the right choice to represent the south neither in Khartoum nor in Juba. As such unless something extraordinary happens, of the scale that happened at the SPLM’s 2008 second Convention in Juba or more, a genuine democratic vote is more likely to see him (Kiir) out of office than the other way round.

Many southern Sudanese are determined to walk towards the referendum behind a stronger leadership than what Kiir is offering at the present. Unfortunately this is not without risks because the GoSS leadership have heavily depended on its tribally backing in order to secure its position on the top.

This huge investment on the ruling tribe is something that the average thinking south Sudanese can never claim it to be a fictitious thinking without really being a beneficiary to the scheme. It is a long term plan with its roots right from day one of the inception of the SPLM/A in 1983, and has all through received good nourishing even under the founder himself and was operational since then until it came full blown during the 2nd SPLM Convention and continued thereafter up till today.

For those who would want to have the up to date position within the ruling octopus, they need only to analyse the commentaries that followed the latest break away of Dr. Lam Akol, and it is without the least doubt that well defined camps of political polarizations have already evolved in southern Sudan.

Equally worrying is that while people discuss Dr. Lam and his new SPLM – DC, the arguments have more than often, and possibly for intended reasons included Dr. Riek Machar painting him sometimes positively and at others negatively.

The obvious here is that, three concrete camps have ostensibly emerged more so in the media championing Dr. Salva Kiir (Honorary), Dr. Lam Akol (PhD) or Dr. Riek Machar (PhD). But by south Sudanese standards the three political gurus can just be summarised by their ethnicities and is Kiir (Dinka), Akol (Shilluk – Collo) and Machar (Nuer).

Having said this, I am not denying the fact they are a few who have continued to defy these tribally structured groupings with even Dinka, Nuer and Equatorians joining the newly formed SPLM-DC as much the room can offer for all sorts of political combinations and permutations. .

This is not strange with south Sudanese politicians and those would argue differently just need to see the heavy presence of south Sudanese within Dr. Hassan al Turabi’s PCP or even the Arab Baa’th Party with its different factions.

The concern here is that while we are now at the peak of our ethnically driven antagonism and being captives to a few tribally motivated political leadership, then should we have candidates from the Dinka, the Nuer, the Chollo and the Equatorians run for the GoSS Presidency in the coming elections, then non would be surprised to see how the whole voting process would go to characterize it as the most ethnically polarized elections in Africa.

People including those who currently call themselves the New Sudan’s elites will forget even to honour their party’s logos and mottos when brothers and sisters have to be served before cousins.

Even great sounding names like the SPLM over which rivalling political groups were disputing barely a few months ago will be replaced by ethnicity or regionalism. In that moment of reality southerners will find themselves voting on tribal lines or within tribal collusions.

Let us do this all, but we must remind ourselves that the devil is waiting for us right at the final station and that is when the results are finally declared. Who will accept whose leadership and how easily?

From the tensions in the media and the tribal and inter-clan fighting right on the ground all over south Sudan, I do not see a chance of any group accepting defeat easily.

This is not to say that there shouldn’t be elections, but rather there should be preparation from the internationally community to provide the necessity security and protection to the citizens.

We can not rely on our rudimentary security organs which even in certain places are none existent and more prone to take sides rather than abide to professional neutralism. .

Neither can any of our political leaders be able to keep the situation under control should there break out any post election chaos as witnessed in Kenya, Zimbabwe and currently in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

But the south must prepare to face the inevitable as we are already fed up with the over recycled faces who practically have run out of new ideas.

A point to stress here is that the wrongly over exaggerated propaganda that it is only some people outside there who can see the south out of the northern domination, should not be allowed to go unchallenged.

Any capable south Sudanese political leader with the will can be able to deliver the south out of the current miserable situation.

However as a far most emergency, the south in fact needs an urgent deliverance from the corrupt and greedy tribally oriented politics in order to evade the imminent ethnically motivated clashes and political unrest that may ensue during the electoral process itself or in the immediate aftermath.

As things remain the way they are, I heavy heartedly appeal to all the political parties in the south to work hard to achieve a reasonable understanding amongst the different rivalling ethnic groups.

First the elections must be fair and transparent and far most though the southerners are already stuck in their tribally motivate politics, may the tribal politicians reach the minimum consensus of respecting other tribes but above all be willing to accept the results of the elections which I hope should be allowed to proceed as fairly and transparently as possible.

And we (southerners) must look at it ( the elections outcome ) as our only hope and guarantee to arrive at the 2011 referendum as a united people in the face of the building up political antagonism by our traditional enemies in the north.

The author of this is article is a Sudanese doctor living in the UK and can be reached at: [email protected].