Unilateral independence of South Sudan before 2011 is unwise
By Zechariah Manyok Biar
July 10, 2009 — According to the article of Mr. Nhial Bol, Editor in Chief of The Citizen, entitled, “Now SPLM is speaking the right language,” Dr. Samson Kwaje said that the Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) for South Sudan is only possible if the NCP pushes the South. The statement is clear. South Sudan can declare UDI only if pushed into it by NCP. Mr. Bol takes the issue further and urges Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly (SSLA) to declare independence of South Sudan on Heroes and Martyrs Day this month, July 30, 2009, the day we lost Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army founder Dr John Garang in 2005. Mr. Bol is even bold enough to say that the idea of waiting for elections in 2010 and referendum in 2011 is a waste of time and a waste of resources. Is there a truth in this statement?
I would have said that South Sudan is in real trouble if the statement of Mr. Bol were the statement of Dr. Kwaje. It is good that Dr. Kwaje knows what he is talking about. He is saying that UDI would be possible if the NCP pushes the South. Mr. Bol does not see the disadvantages of hasty declaration of independent for South Sudan before 2011. The points that Mr. Bol make to justify hasty declaration of independence for South Sudan are exactly the negative points that makes the UDI a very bad idea if politicians were buying into Mr. Bol’s idea. Mr. Bol’s points are that waiting for elections in 2010 and referendum in 2011 is a “waste of time” and a “waste of resources.”
Let us be clear that a Unilateral Declaration of Independence would not be supported by international community because it would be a violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Khartoum would take that declaration as a move for a declaration of war and the international community will never recognize South Sudan as a country. Countries like Egypt who oppose the independent of South Sudan will have a golden chance to lobby against South Sudan.
South Sudan would then take over oil fields by force or lose them to the control of Sudan government. Even if South Sudan managed to take over the control of oil fields by force, it will need to shut down the current pipeline that goes to Port Sudan and build another pipeline to keep oil business flows for South Sudan to have some money for operation. You know that South Sudan relies on oil’s money now for its operation.
Countries who may sign the contract with South Sudan to take over the production of oil will be very few because they would fear losing their money without any benefit because they will work under war situation. Their facilities could be destroyed by Sudanese bombers. Therefore, the UDI could become the waste of resources, resulting in total bankruptcy for South Sudan.
South Sudan might go back to voluntary system of government, as it was during the war between the North and the South, where nobody gets any penny for serving the nation. This will automatically send many people back to neighboring countries where they can take care of their families. Those who will choose to fight without getting any salary will be few. This is going to delay success against the government of Khartoum. This is the real waste of time. Development will immediately stop until the war is won or lost.
So I wonder what good South Sudan can get from the rushed declaration of independent as Mr. Bol calls for! The war that would result in such a declaration would be a war of choice, not the war of necessity. The war of choice always has few supporters.
I don’t think President Kiir can buy into the idea of UDI as the Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army. A wise Commander-in-Chief is the one who carefully weighs the pros and cons of the war before opting for war. War is always costly in both human life and resources. War must always be the last resort.
I don’t see the reason why we should not wait for 2011 that is only two years away. If Khartoum violates CPA and forces South Sudan back to war, then it will be on the wrong side and Juba will be on the right side of international law. In such a situation, the international community will support the UDI for South Sudan. But this support will happen after 2011, let us be clear about that. A fear about Northern Sudan’s intentions against the implementation of CPA will not justify the UDI, whatsoever the case South Sudan will make before the guarantors of CPA. UDI will only be justified by Khartoum’s refusal to grant Southerners their independence after they voted for it in 2011.
North Sudan will drag its feet to implement CPA, it is clear. But that is one of the points that South Sudan will make for session in 2011. Voting for session is a legal issue that no country will legally oppose in 2011. Those who do not want South Sudan to vote for separation now have the chance to convince Southerners that unity of Sudan is attractive. If they do not succeed in convincing Southerners about the attractiveness of unity, then they will have no right to oppose the session of South Sudan in 2011. This is how legal issues work.
Therefore, UDI for South Sudan before 2011 is not a wise idea at all. It would lead to failure of South Sudan and it would be very costly in both human life and resources. Let us keep away from UDI if we are really aiming at the independence of South Sudan.
Zechariah Manyok Biar is a graduate student at Abilene Christian University, Texas, USA. He is pursuing a Master of Arts in Christian Ministry and a Master of Science in Social Work, specializing in Administration and Planning. He is also a regular contributor to The New Sudan Vision website. He is reachable at [email protected]
Edward Laboke
Unilateral independence of South Sudan before 2011 is unwise
Zackariah,
Your analysis falls exactly within the premise that SPLM officials usually stand on very controversial or sensitive areas that are not made very clear in the comprehensive peace agreement. Whether Dr. Samson Kwaje was answering a question or making a statement, it is clear that,like their answers to question as to how people should vote during the referendum; where they usually tell the voters to use their own discrition to vote responsibly during the referendum.
On the timing of the UDI however, you might be right because we have gone so far a long way that it’s possible to wait for that time schedule agreed upon in the CPA. As for the destrcutive consequences of the UDI, it’s imminent that whether the south declares it today or in 2012, there will be colossal destructions of men and materials before both side could calm down at the calls from international community.
Dr. Kwaje’s statement is however, unpredictable because we don’t know SPLM’s elasticity to endure the NCP push. In the common man’s eyes, SPLM had had enough of the pushes by the NCP; and it’s here that, althouhg many southern Sudanses are very unhappy with the current SPLM leadership, they are really handling the NCP traps cautiously. Otherwise, the time the SPLM suspended participation in the Government of National Unity (GONU) was a misopportunity for the UDI if Nhial Bol’s strategies were SPLM’s.
If all fairness were given due considerations, SPLM would have been granted the right to UDI earlier than the end of the interim period. The NCP humilated SPLM to provoke violence on a number of occasiopns beside political subbotage to the CPA, but SPLM have alwyas played it skeptically. Mr. Bol in other words is not creating a storm out of a tea cup, but it might be time for us to expect the unexpected. SPLM might be inching towards its elastic limits that it can resist pushes no more. It’s time that requires both vigilance and patrioticism, for our brothers and sisters on the ground especially those in the north.
In my opinion, the NCP has done more than enough pushing to provoke violence, but as they failed to score their goals in both political and military directions, they may try other options that we are very ignorant about. But all in all, our people should be prepared for any eventualities.
Edward L Laboke
Aduol Liet
Unilateral independence of South Sudan before 2011 is unwise
MR, Zechariah Manyok Biar.
Your quoting from author’s Nhial Bol. I think this is the only way that, the Southern Sudanese people should be focusing at most rather than unity governement for Sudan. Personal I agree fully that, the SPLM must work out for Southern Sudan Independence because this Idiots of Arab Northern Sudan are not cooperated with the SPLM’S Law and funds issue and that is the point we Southern Sudanese should not wasting time. For the statement of DR, Samson Kwaje. I am absolutely supporting that kind of Ideas perhaps, I was been posting many an articles about Independent for South and Southern Sudanese freedom is the only key element SPLM should be talking about fortunately, it is not too late for the SPLM to do that and also it is too late to show your commitment by educated those SPLM to accept the fact that, Sudan government behave like before in 1983 historical movement.
Thank to DR, Samson Kwaje for that statement he made, I had been admired only few people in the SPLM, I wish this man and Pagan Amum will stand with most Southern Sudanese people unlikely to those like DR, Lam Akol and many more others Southerners assume themselves to be under the Killer Omar Hassan al Bashir’s pew. Another problem to the SPLM/SPLA is that, they do not read all these opinions posts from different individuals post of Southern Sudanese people otherwise they were eventually benefits on it. Yes, declaration for Southern Sudan nation must be the first main goal and yes, the time is short to tell different things when the time is against SPLM must work very hard enough to make it happen that Independence for Southern Sudan as a nation. One Author has mention early years ago that,the strategic of victory mean achieving the goals so why not these SPLM/SPLA do that I mean there is no shame for separation many nations in the world did it why not SPLM of Southern Sudanese do it now.
Aduol Liet.
Akol Liai Mager
Unilateral independence of South Sudan before 2011 is unwise
Thanks Zechariah,
That’s the process all marginalised people need to take. UDI at this time is too dangerous and I don’t want add more as you have had enough and clear explannation for why UDI is not good.
However, I personally appreciate SPLM unlimit patience. SPLM has been pushed by NIF from the dispute of two ministries Energy & Finance through insincere declaration of Oil revenues to Cat & Rat Sensus. But, miraclously SPLM took a very responsible way to deal with NIF. The intention of NIF is to push SPLM to start the war as that will make them win regional and international community supports.
SPLM needs to win the pending war in Sudan with NIF by doing the right thing, wait patiently for northerners to have their say in 2010 general elections follows by Southerners in 2011.
Mr. Nhial Bopl has fought a war for a very long time and may have got exhausted. He might have forgotten that you can decide any time to disengage yourself with whoever you don,t want, but with the use of right weapons you can control the situation. Therefore, the right weapons are very few and I could see only three of them; 2010 elections, 2011 referendum + Abyei if the Hague based court rules that its belongs to the South and NIF orders its militias to occupy it militarily, Yes, that will be more than just a push and SPLM and certainly all southern Sudanese will follow.
Just only one thing that I disagree with you is the believe I have seen in your words that there is still an army called Sudanese army with bombers and Jet fighters. My argue is that there is no Sudanese army, but there is NIF militia with bombers and jet fighters.
Sudanese army has been eliminated jointly by SPLM, Sadiq Al Sidiq and his brother in-law’s NIF party.
The army that people talked about in the north is a Popular Defence Forces and that is the army of NIF not the Sudanese army.
Finally you have my salute Zechariah for you article. You have good ideas to share with our brother Nhial Bol Akeen.
Check the comments made by Sudantribune readers to Mr. Nhial Bol article if you want.
P Thon Aleu
Unilateral independence of South Sudan before 2011 is unwise
Z Manyok,
Your understanding is good about war effects but either ways lead the South to war with the north. Whether Southerners wait for unsucessful elections anytime next year or the referedum in 2011 — that is unlikely too, war will come. Khartuom is already using all means to challenge seperation and slow or falsely implement CPA…just inviting Southerners understanding…
So, your idea, that of Nhial Bol and the rest who are silent will lead us to war. The Arabs would allow any peaceful seperation now or later.
But NO ONE wise war for now…let’s wait and hear what comes on July, 22.