The Sudan in the next eighteen months

By Paul Bor Gatwech

Jumy 14, 2009 — It is only eighteen months left for CPA to expire. Unluckily enough for Sudan, most of the key provisions in the CPA are not fully implemented or intentionally allowed to bypass their designated implementation time frame.
Per CPA implementation modalities, general elections were designed to supposedly have taken place in July 2009 while North-South Border demarcation could have been completed not after the fourth year of the interim period.
Moreover, Abyei Boundary commission report has already joined 1972 Addis Ababa and 1997 Khartoum Peace Agreements in the Republican Palace garbage bin. The parties now resort to external arbitrator that is not even mentioned in the CPA for resolving the Abyei problem.

Recently, a number of experts on different publications have warned that CPA is in danger in terms of its implementation as we near its conclusion due to lack of political will from the parties. They have specifically blamed the National Congress Party (NCP) for adamantly and intentionally refusing to implement key protocols that threaten its grip on power while Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) shows low interest on elections. The experts also stressed that NCP is now staging an aggressive campaign to deny exercise of self determination for people of southern Sudan and Abyei which is stipulated in the CPA either through legal or military means. This has led the experts to conclude that the historic Comprehensive Peace Agreement is seemingly heading not to a black and white prospective of unity or succession of the Sudan. It may just create a grey line that is neither white nor black prospective of unity or succession of the Sudan.
Thus, the experts implore that if the Sudan partners to peace do not apply different approach to honestly implement the outstanding and remaining protocols diligently, the end game towards implementation of CPA does not promise the people of the Sudan neither unity nor peaceful succession.

Moreover, as CPA implementation is analyzed, the Sudan is heading to achieve one of four things depending on calculations of its main parties to peace, argued the experts. In the end game of the CPA, the Sudan may either end up with a forced unity, forced succession, voluntary unity or voluntary succession. Nonetheless, the first two options are the most likeliest to take place since NCP has vehemently rejected voluntary unity from the onset of CPA meanwhile systematically blocking all roads leading to the birth of the Republic of South Sudan (RSS) through peaceful exercise of referendum.

The question that any ordinary Sudanese asks therefore is: “If the Sudan will end up neither a voluntarily united country nor a fragmented one, then what will exactly happen?” Of course NCP does not have the word unity in diversity in its dictionary instead a “coercive unity”, but why should it refuse to facilitate peaceful separation when it rejects unity? And how will NCP manage to hold Sudan together after expiry of the CPA?

As we read in the media, NCP, the beast with power to bring peace or cause war in the Sudan, is importing highly sophisticated weapons from China and other Asian or Latin American friends not to fight any regional power but the Sudanese citizens. Nonetheless, NCP, unlike SPLM that only believes in unorganized ill equipped SPLA when compared to SAF, believe firstly to dismantle CPA through legal means.
The legal battle that is raging in Khartoum at the Legislative Assembly and Republican Palace is the primary strategy for NCP to deny people of southern Sudan their right to choose their destiny. In this battle, NCP has significantly achieved and conquered much territory.
It has already succeeded in delivering itself dominance in the next house after elections. The next House will of course be responsible for implementation of remaining provisions of the agreement. It will also be directly responsible, in passing referendum law if currently delayed by NCP, and to facilitate and confirm the results of the referendum.

The recently concluded Sudan’s fifth Population Census is the major process that has earned NCP substantial leverage to control and manipulate the remaining protocols of CPA through legal means.
It is important to mention that the results of Fifth Population Census announced by Census Commission and endorsed by the presidency have become the thorn in flesh for SPLM in CPA implementations. We have witnessed continuous rejection of the results by SPLM after they were endorsed by the Presidency. The results of the Fifth Population Census were one of the key contentious issues discussed in last Washington meeting between NCP, SPLM and about over 30 countries and organizations who directly or indirectly participated in the negotiation, implementation and monitoring of the CPA.
NCP, having complete control over state resources, have managed to manipulate the process of the Fifth Population Census making the northern Sudan become the most populated region in the Sudan which will eventually take the majority seats in the parliament. Of course in the end what matter will not be party affiliation but regional representation in the parliament. Because some people may argue that even if the south fall short of being one third of the population of the Sudan, the SPLM can still fight to control more seats in the parliament through its affiliations with northerners. It is important to stress that party affiliations will gradually die as the nod is getting tighter and tighter towards CPA end game. And that is why NCP must make sure that it legally secures two third of Sudan population at its backyards. What will SPLM do now given that if elections are conducted, two third of seats will definitely go to NCP. NCP shall now delay the elections firstly to make sure that all laws give them leverage to manipulate the elections. Secondly, NCP wants to make sure that the new parliament comes in when CPA is almost expiring without key protocols such as referendum being conducted to suggest that they are to be renegotiated or debated in an NCP controlled parliament.

As matter of fact, the party NCP is not keen to provoke any military conflict with the south now. It wants to firstly tie down the SPLM under legal nod through legislations that favors its interest and expose SPLM as a war monger if it does not comply after legislations become law.
And if SPLM behave passively as it is now waiting to react than pre-empting plans on line with CPA implementations that do not only rely on military solutions, it will end up provocatively igniting the next Sudanese armed conflict endangering its relationship with international community.
NCP, therefore, has tactically decided not to passively believe on its military might but rather its legal experience to maneuver laws and agreements. It has two fronts-legal and military with SPLM believing only on military front as a guarantee for full CPA implementations.

In conclusion, as argued by some experts, and given unwillingness by the parties to implement CPA fully and honestly, the Sudan is not heading towards a black and white prospective of unity and succession. Though already two countries in one system, the Sudan still remains with no clear destiny. The parties to the comprehensive peace agreement are still lost in euphoria of political dominance without taking into consideration the need for the country to be democratic, united and prosperous. Unless the international community pressures both NCP and SPLM, the historic CPA will end-up being renegotiated again- even if it’s only a portion of it or completely dumped in the Republican garbage bin where war shall ensue.

The author can be reached through [email protected].