SPLM should nominate Gov Malik Agar for Sudan presidency

By Yong Deng

August 20, 2009 — Eight months from now Sudan will hold a national election and SPLM as one of the main national political parties is expected to provide a candidate for the president of the republic. For the last two years the topic of who SPLM should nominate as a national presidential candidate has been gaining intense speculation among the SPLM supporters. A lot of ordinary citizens who have voiced their opinions on the issue differed very sharply. Some argue that president Salva Kiir as a party chairman is the de facto presidential candidate for the SPLM party. Others like me suggest that, because of several reasons that will be outlined later in this paper, the SPLM can have a different presidential candidate.

An attempt to nominate the candidate by the top leadership of the party since the time of the 2nd national convention last year has not been forthcoming. Senior SPLM officials have been giving incoherent and sometime contradictory statements about the issue. Several closed door meetings that have been convened by the political bureau to settle the issue have always ended without a communiqué. Though I will not indulge in allegations and hearsay about what happens in those meetings, it is certain that there is some disagreement among the political bureau members over the issue. So why is it very difficult for the SPLM leadership to decide on who the presidential candidate should be?

The conditions surrounding the SPLM presidential candidature for 2010 election are very complex and involving a very critical political risk. The main prevailing reality is the uncertain post referendum status of the country. The chairman and his two Southern deputies (Riek and Wani), aware of the fact that about 90% of South Sudanese have resolved to vote for an independent South Sudan comes 2011, do not see their political future best served when they contest a seat for the president of the soon-to-be former Sudan. For instance, if President Kiir contests for presidency, it will mean that he either wins and become the president of the republic for eight month (May-December 2010) or he loses and become the head of opposition group in the Sudan parliament for the same eight months. Either way, he would still resign and come back to the South as an ordinary citizen after January 2011.The same case applies to both Dr Riek and Hon. James Wani.

The power sharing protocol of the CPA and both the interim constitutions of South Sudan and that of the whole Sudan do not allow any candidate to run for two offices. Therefore, President Kiir cannot run for the presidency of the whole Sudan and that of the Government of South Sudan at the same time. Neither can President Kiir run for the post of the president of the whole Sudan and still be appointed the first vice president in case he lose. According to article 2.3.7 of the CPA protocol on power sharing, the post of the first vice president will automatically go to the elected president of South Sudan:

2.3.7 The President shall be elected in national elections, the timing of which shall be subject to the agreement of the two parties. The President elect shall appoint two Vice Presidents, one from the South and the other from the North. If the President-elect is from the North, the position of the First Vice President shall be filled by the person who has been elected to the post of President of the Government of Southern Sudan, as the President’s appointee to the said position. In the event that a person from the South wins the Presidential elections, the President-elect shall appoint the First Vice President from the North. All the other provisions in this agreement relating to the presidency shall continue to apply.

It is therefore evident that running for the presidency of the whole Sudan will involve a huge sacrifice of one’s post in the GOSS on the part of our big three Southern leaders (Kiir, Riek and Wani).That political sacrifice will definitely be preceded by unwillingness on the part of whoever will be asked to do so. As witnessed during the two-day standoff prior to the 2nd SPLM national convention in Juba when there were allegations that two of the three positions of vice chairperson would be scrapped, these leaders are disinclined to relinquish their current positions, both in the party and in the GOSS, for less. None of them will be willing to risk either a defeat in the presidential contest in 2010 or a resignation from the seat of the president (in case SPLM wins) in 2011 when South Sudanese choose separation. Any attempt by the party to force one to make that sacrifice will likely result in a political discord that we Southerners are not prepared for at this critical moment. If we want to sustain the current state of harmony in the SPLM and in the GOSS until 2011, a compromise that preserves the current leadership arrangement must always be sought as in the case of the 2nd convention.

On the other hand, SPLM has a very great following in the North. The Nuba Mountain, the Southern Blue Nile, people from the east, Nubians, Darfur: in short all the marginalised people in the North look to SPLM to bring them freedom and equality that it promises in its manifesto. SPLM cannot therefore dare to dishonour its commitment to them and throw its support on the NCP candidate on the pretext of the so-called CPA partners as some people allege. Although the SPLM Southern sector does not have high stake in the 2010 national election because of the fact that Southerners will have the alternative of voting for a separate state in 2011, SPLM must provide a competent contender to challenge Bashir in the North. I therefore strongly feel that his Excellency Malik Agar Eyare, the Governor of Blue Nile state and the vice chairman of SPLM is the best SPLM candidate to challenge Omar Bashir in the North. He can also sweep all the Southern votes.

Comrade Malik Agar is a dedicated hero who has proved throughout our liberation struggle that he is ready to fight for the right of the marginalised people, both in the South and North. Since the time he decided to interrupt his doctoral thesis in 1980s in order to join the SPLA, he has never wavered even when his entire region of Blue Nile was lost to the enemy in early 1990s.Whatever the result of Southern referendum will be in 2011, I am confident Mr Agar will continue to champion the cause of the marginalised people in the North. Cde Malik Agar is best suited to lead the SPLM in 2010 national election because of the following reasons among others:

First, Gov Malik Agar is from Southern Blue Nile, one of the marginalised areas in the North. Entrusting him with SPLM presidential candidature will reassure millions of SPLM supporters in the North who felt frustrated that SPLM has abandoned their cause and is only advocating for Southern cause (referendum).By nominating one of their own leaders as a presidential contender on behave of SPLM, the marginalised people in Blue Nile and Nuba Mountain will feel honoured and they will vote in large numbers for SPLM in the parliamentary seats and in that of the president. It is only when SPLM win a majority in state parliaments of both Blue Nile and Nuba Mountain (South Kordofan) that a better deal can be made for those areas in the popular consultation.

Second, many SPLM members in the North who are concerned of voting for a Southerner in 2010 election (because they expect the South will separate in 2011) will have their fear relieved by nominating Cde Malik Agar as the candidate. If SPLM lost the election and the South Sudan vote for separation, Mr Agar will remain the head of official opposition party (SPLM) in the Northern parliament. He will then continue to fight for the right of the marginalised people in the North. He will also be a possible challenger to the NCP candidates in the subsequent elections.

In the event that SPLM win the elections, Mr Agar will become the president of the republic and appoint the elected president of GOSS as his first vice president as agreed in the CPA provision. He can then implement the SPLM vision in the North and still grant Southerners their right to peaceful and friendly separation when they choose to do so in 2011. In this scenario, the two SPLM parties with the same vision will be in power in the two neighbouring countries.

It may sound elusive but SPLM winning cannot be written off especially if the elections are free and fair. I can see a possibility of SPLM wining at least 35% votes from both North and South. The NCP can win 40% which will mostly be from the North. The other Northern oppositions combined can wins 25%.In this case there will be a rerun for the presidential seat by the NCP and SPLM candidates for the winner to reach the 50% +1.With endorsement of anti-NCP oppositions in the North, the SPLM candidate can finally reach that wining threshold.

Third, the current rant among the NCP cadres and their proxies that SPLM has squandered $6 billion and therefore is unfit to rule will not be used effectively against Cde Malik Agar in the presidential campaigns. He is a governor of Blue Nile and therefore is not responsible for 50% oil share. His state currently experiences relative peace and he has succeeded in the disarmament, demobilisation and rehabilitation in the state. Moreover, he will without question sweep the votes in all the Southern states, Kordofan and his home state of Blue Nile.

Fourth, many people in the Nuba Mountain and the Southern Blue Nile do not understand the CPA protocol on Nuba Mountain and the Southern Blue Nile. They are not aware of what the “popular consultation” means to them. In her testimony to the US senate foreign relation committee on July 30, Susan D. Page, NDI (National Democratic Institute) Regional Director for southern and east Africa, underscored the gravity of this misinformation among the people NDI interviewed in both states as follows:

“Misinformation is widespread, including the number of positions for which people will be voting; in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, a number of people believe erroneously that they will also vote in a referendum. Without this option, a number of participants claimed they would ‘join the South, declare independence, or go back to war.’”

If Gov Malik Agar is nominated as the SPLM candidate for 2010 election, the surge of election aids, election observers, national and international media which will flock the region will help educate the people about elections and the stake in popular consultation. Voters in the Nuba Mountain and Southern Blue Nile need to be informed before the elections that it is not them but their elected representatives who will determine their fate in the popular consultation. They will therefore have to elect the right representatives who will represent their legitimate views when the popular consultation comes.

In addition to that, Gov Agar’s candidacy will bring intense media scrutiny and the presence of large number of election observers to the two states since they will be his power base. The spot light that will surround elections there will make it hard for NCP to rig them. This will facilitate a large win by the SPLM there.

In conclusion, a lot of people from Nuba Mountain and Southern Blue Nile feel that they did not get a fair deal in the CPA. They feel that they are deceived by the SPLM Southern sector. I was almost in tears when I read the following comment from a SPLA veteran from the Nuba Mountain who expressed that frustration:

“NUBA PEOPLE LET US NOT BE FOOLED TWICE.

We joined the SPLM/A because we had the same grievances, we hoped we would achieve exactly what they (South) have achieved: freedom and equality. But unfortunately when the peace was signed in Naivaisha, they gave us the so-called ‘Popular Consultation’ and took for themselves a right to independence by voting in 2011. We expect them to cooperate with us for the development of the Nuba, but it seems they have turned deaf ears. Nuba therefore does not need to worry because they (South) have not yet crossed the river. If their boats begin to sink again, then help from the Nuba Mountains will also be absent. Some of us who fought and have got all our bodies filled with wounds are still shocked and crying in our hearts for the cheating that was done by our leaders in the south. Their selfishness will not be forgotten by the Nuba. South Sudan, we are still in the river swimming together. Do not rejoice. The crocodile (NCP) is still pushing the boat”.

Despite this bitter frustration, many people from that region still genuinely believe only the SPLM carries their last hope. The mammoth and emotional welcome they endowed to President Kiir during his visit to Kordofan in July and to Blue Nile this month is a proof of their timeless unwavering support for the party. “He is our sign of hope,” one tearful supporter of SPLM was reported to have said about President Kiir during his visit to Blue Nile. “I believe there is hope in our country and comrade Kiir and the SPLM will bring it”, added the supporter.

At this critical moment, just 16 months before the Southern referendum and eight months before the elections, SPLM in general and the Southern sector in particular must do all it can to help the marginalised people in the North (particularly the people in the two contested areas) to fulfil their hopes. Strengthening the SPLM Northern sector through these forthcoming elections to champion their cause (even after the South separate) is the best way to help them at the moment. I therefore feel that this can best be achieved if their tested hero, Comrade Malik Agar Eyare, is nominated to lead the SPLM in the presidential elections.

The author is a Sudanese living in Canada. he can be reched at [email protected]