It’s not just about the elections any more

By Justin Ambago Ramba

December 13, 2009 — This time is a time when the Dominant National Congress Party (NCP) of the indicted president Omer al Bashir has come to realize how vulnerable their position has become after two centuries of a tight grip on power following the bloodless coup that first brought them to power in 1989.

However the Sudanese people are well aware that the current regime as many others of its kind all over Africa and the Middle East, will never ever create any opportunities for any peaceful transfer of power.

This is a regime that has survived more than any in the history of the country. Tracing its records of the many memoranda of understanding (MoU), they the NIF/NCP tactfully signed with most of the Sudanese opposition forces, they have funnily enough promoted more misunderstandings in the Sudanese politics than any.

Running a country as big as the Sudan is one thing and transferring power from one group to the other is another. In a country that has seen three military rulers and two popular uprisings that overthrew very powerful dictatorial regimes, democratic elections with its complicated processes ranging from the allocations of constituencies often on cheated census results, through flowed voters’ registrations, and rigged ballot stuffing all well documented by credible Institutions like the Rift Valley Institute, the Sudanese masses have become more bent to changing any overdue and unwanted regime by walking it out of office either through a military coup d’état or the popular up risings.

To prove that the Sudanese politicians are all well aware of the possibilities of power shifts through other ways besides the much talked about democratic elections could be seen, on how they approached the situation from day one. While all were seemingly encouraging their supports to register for the elections, they were also considering the other options as things unfold on the ground.

Now that we are approaching the end of the last days of the various parliaments in the Sudan, as well as the National Assembly in Omdurman, and it would be a sad ending should the National Assembly in particular dissolves itself in the middle of the current Sudanese crises without creating the necessary situations to bring the SPLM and the other south Sudanese MPs to take part in the final passing of the out standing bills. We all know what it means if any bills are to be passed without the participation of these members and how that would impact on the north /south relationship.

However much can be deduced from the statements of Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie when he addressed the followers of the NCP in the Um Bada suburb of Omdurman. This agriculturist turned a spy and politician was out to air more threats against any moves by the opposition. In all Nafie’s messages, there were strong stresses on that the NCP is not only willing , but in fact ready to use the military in its struggle to keep to power.

In other wards his message is a direct threat that any one who takes to the streets to demonstrate in demand for the democratic bills, will have themselves to blame as the NCP security organs will in no any way be soft with the protesters.

Dr Ismail Mustafa, the presidential advisor on foreign relationship also did the same in Jebel Awlia, south of Khartoum. Their messages put together all amount to working hard to convince the SPLM leaders that it would be to their best interest to distance themselves from their senior cadres like Ustaz Pa’gan Amum, the SPLM Secretary General, and his deputy Yasser Arman and their connections in the northern opposition parties. As ridiculous as it sounds, we may need to probe into what prompted these Islamic lunatics into believing that such an action can be appealing to the SPLM party and its over one million followers?

In a separate development, the SPLM is also out and addressing its followers and that is exactly what Ustaz Pa’gan Amum did at “Souk Sitta”, at al Haj Yusuf residential area of Khartoum north, east of the Nile. He went to Haj Yusuf, a town that always brings to the memory the great and historical victory of the marginalized black African peoples from Southern Blue Nile, the Nuba Mountains , the Southern Sudan, when the late Godfather of black emancipation, the Reverend Philip Abbas Ghoboush when he made it to the National Assembly in 1986, to put it in the history books, as the first non-Arab, black-African, Christian, priest and marginalised Sudanese to win a constituency in the heart of the arabised, and Islamised northern Sudan and nowhere but in its political capital of Khartoum.

Ustaz Amum stressed to his audience the importance that every agreement reached with their NCP partners remains to be taken with a pinch of salt.

“The progress we have had with the NCP on the issues of the referenda (for south Sudan and Abyei) and the popular consultations (for the Nuba Mountains and the Southern Blue Nile), should be taken with caution, as this people (NCP) are not trustworthy. They are used to issuing uncovered cheques and they have done it before”, said Amum.

The ‘Juba Declaration Parties’ meeting that was attended by Sudan’s First Vice President and Chairman of the SPLM on December 11, and the Sudanese opposition leaders Mr. Sadiq Al-Mahdi, the leader of Umma party, Dr. Hassan Al-Turabi of the Popular Congress Party, Mr. Ibrahim Nugud of the Communist Party, Minni Arkoi Minawi, Senior Presidential Assistant and chairman of a SLM faction and Mubarak Al-Mahdi, the leader of Umma – Reform and Renewal said they are ready to demonstrate on Monday December 14 for the second time to pressurize the dominant National Congress Party (NCP) to pass the bills related to the democratic reforms and the CPA implementation as well as a peaceful solution for Darfur crisis.

However, the dominant NIF/NCP remains sceptical and opposed to any idea of allowing for any demonstrations to take place even when they are intended to be peaceful.

“If people go on other processions or any demonstrations without approval or permission from the concerned authorities, it will be considered a ’challenge to the law and sovereignty of the country,” said Minister Ibrahim.

Judging by records and conditions unfolding on the ground, the Islamic movement though rapidly running out of credibility both internally and internationally, will never be expected to grant the protestors any of the claimed permission. The Omer al Bashir’s regime is already caught up in a mess that it will battle with but never will it easily win as it would all to believe. He (al Bashir) is a wanted man, and can only be seen so in whatever he does.

Where we are now, it is not only about elections any more. Otherwise why would we ever want to have an election if it is not going to be a fair thing done under a fair circumstance? Why would we want to have a government at all if it doesn’t reflect and represent what we stand for? A bad government is no different than no government at all.

Come Monday, 14th December 2009, and Omer al Bashir must tell us either we are going democratic and he joins in, or he declares a state of emergency, arrests the National Interim Constitution (NIC) which allows for peaceful demonstration, or he even goes further to scrape the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), or he resigns and goes to The Hague or still he commits suicide or whatsoever.

Monday December the 14th 2009, will obviously determine the future of the Sudanese democracy, the credibility of the opposition parties as grouped under the so-called ‘Juba Declaration Collusion’, and in fact the credibility of how much the Sudanese people still hold the threads of the events that shape their destinies.

Dr. Justin Ambago Ramba, MB, BCh, DRH, MD. Secretary General of the United South Sudan Party (USSP). The party that stands for the independence of South Sudan. Can be reached at either [email protected] or [email protected]