Mr. Arman for Sudanese Presidency?

By Isaiah Abraham

January 28, 2010 — The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Political Bureau, the highest political body of that party in its long awaited session at its regular political meeting place (Home & Away Hotel in Juba) last week decided to settle for Mr. Yasser Saeed Arman from Al Geziera State as its preferred Presidential candidate. The National Congress Party (NCP) has quickly and officially asked the SPLM to withdraw him as a token of reciprocity given their endorsement of President Kiir for the Southern Presidency, against their widely perceived ally Dr. Lam Akol Ajawin of the DC. In order not to waste your time, whatever we are hearing in that equation is pure politics, but I wholly agree with the NCP move. Mr. Yasser candidature will drag an election of the Sudanese Presidency to the second round since no single candidate shalll bag half of the votes. As things stand, Mr. Arman can’t be the second best (or runner up), but a spoiler, possibly Mr. Al Mahdi of the Umma party will; and this is going to be dangerous to the CPA. Said Imam Al Mahdi has rebranded himself and might disturb and upset anyone and the process (CPA). Even if we are left with no time, political ‘injury’ time is always tricky, anything can happen. The NCP through President Al Bashir is our true friend, not Mr. Al Mahdi Abdulrahaman.

Let me bore you with the man Arman (his background) before we hypothesize on the decision itself. Comrade Arman joined the SPLA/M guerilla movement at the end of the 1980s and was commissioned as first lieutenant in the army. From there, he gradually moved together with his batch mates to the rank of Alternate Commander, a pool where going beyond was a reserve for achievers. He is one among few Northerners in the SPLM party who fought his way to the top through hard work and diligence right from the air wave radio room (radio producer). Mr. Arman is one student who believes in the New Sudan vision of secular united Sudan. He is a typical leftist, if not from liberal wing. When majority of Northerners in the party (SPLM) traced their roots and were made to denounce their allegiance to the South in the 1990s, Comrad Arman withered storms and stayed with ‘infidels’ the Southerners. He is a perfect political organizer and can argue. Mr. Kiir, the SPLM Chairman at the beginning of his leadership as the party chief attempted to prejudice him, until somewhere he came to the realization that Mr. Yasser isn’t an ordinary Northerner, but a serious politician on his own right. He has a family ties with Southern Sudan, a break from what we know from our ‘brothers’ Arab. He is a nationalist. We shall stop there!

Back to the substance: now that the SPLM has resolved to compete for the Sudanese Presidency together with the NCP using low profile candidature, what does that tell you about the SPLM intention now or for tomorrow? This is what I think will happen: we shall experience a rough going with the NCP if they (NCP) win election. If they lose (something improbable) others will temper with the process leading to Referendum in January 2011. Everyone thought since the NCP is still in the serious business (partnership) with the SPLM, and since Mr. Kiir isn’t standing, the SPLM would support Al-Bashir candidature, alas, the hardliners within the SPLM party succeeded to come up with a competitor in the person of Yasser Saeed Arman. You see, the mathematic used by Political Bureau to come up with Mr. Saeed has divided the opinion of our people and the world. Here it is not just about SPLM party that should bother you and me or others, but about the future of Southern Sudan beyond the SPLM party. Mr. Arman is a sworn unionist and if miraculously he wins this election, I don’t think he will allow us to go. He is obstinate, slippery and shrewd man, classical of an Arab.

Questions are swirling the air as to what was behind the nomination of Mr. Arman instead of heavy weights in the likes of Mr. Kiir, Dr. Machar, Mr. Nhial, Mr. Amum and the Speaker (Igga). Well, in the first place the party doesn’t take this election exercise worth its salt, because the SPLM lacks confidence to front Mr. Kiir against President Al Bashir. But signs were clear that the SPLM would done better under Kiir. Mr. Kiir political future in this drama squeezed its ugly head in the selection of choices. Mr. Kiir’s supporters are telling us that there is no way their man should leave the South because the South will remain unguarded. They are wrong! But, Mr. Arman nomination is both blessing and a curse; a blessing to Southerners and a curse to Southern allies in the North. Good enough, the unity dog through New Sudan project is closely heading to the dusk bin. The Southern voters should not waste their time in the hot moments of our seasons to queue in voting booths waiting to vote for Mr. Arman who is likely going to change nothing. Southerners however can only vote for members of Parliament from parties that are clearly Southern in heart. SPLM first, others second.

Mr. Arman nomination is problematic to the Southern allies for reasons that will shortly follow. But one interesting scenario is the status of the Juba All Parities Conference after the SPLM nomination of Mr. Arman. We are seeing them in disarray. We shall reserve this topic to the next discussion. But surely, things are nastier to the opposition, their unity would have made the NCP run for its money. That was history, things have changed. Imam Al Mahdi and the Communist Ibrahim Nugud supporters are already on the streets of Khartoum, Meddeni, Al Obeid, Kassala, Port Sudan etc drumming up support for themselves and their candidates. These parties have resources and ability to upset the SPLM candidates in those cities. Mr. Arman is currently cash strapped, and the South will not accept its resources to go for project that are foreign to her. Nimule-Juba road contract is one huge lift or big beginning from the Government of the peole of Southern Sudan (GOSS). It requires money and Arman project can’t divert attention away from this noble plan that will help millions in the South. Hon. Makana, my humble respect!

Let’s take a brief tour to see the impacts (‘curses’) of SPLM decision to fill up Yasser Saeed Arman as the SPLM party presidential torch bearer. One must start with the least factor, then to the mighty. What will be the implication to the party in the event he (Arman) loses? Mr. Arman losing to Mr. Al Bashir will not be without a controversy and this is it: already he is a mark man (a traitor) as far as the North is concerned. The worse shall be in the likely event of the South breaking away from the North- something unavoidable. Mr. Arman will have no base, because the South that I know will only accept business activities from the North and not politicians. We have suffered greatly in the hands of Arabs and this should be our time to recuperate even psychologically from another Arab strutting in our streets with political shoes. Iif he chooses to remain in Khartoum or the North, he will be hunted down by extremists. Where will he rest his head? Nowhere! I thought the SPLM leaders were serious to go through his post election situation.

Secondly and as introduced above, Mr. Arman candidature has already sent a wrong signal about SPLM intention to create the New Sudan. The hullabaloo we have been hearing from the SPLM top brass about change, change should now be buried with Mr. Arman nomination. Look, those who would have voted for the party shall think twice about their support to the party. Chances are that the SPLM will do badly under Mr. Arman in the North. Why? Because, Mr. Arman isn’t a figure who could wield influence for moderate Muslims in the North. He is a new comer to Sudanese politic moreover. The Northerner constituency is made up of conservatives and religious sectarianism groups, one of which Mr. Arman has no connection at all. The SPLM surely would have done well under Kiir candidature if Kiir had stayed SPLM cause from 2005 from where Garang left it. After Mr. Kiir hole up in Juba and reluctantly and slowly doing too little to appeal nationally, the chance for Mr. Arman to deliver the needed change is nearly zero. The areas the SPLM was expected to do well are up for grab by other political opposition groups. Conspicuously, am even seeing him campaigning alone, with no big wigs of the party around him. Probably the party isn’t in a position to give him enough money and other support for his campaign team. May be the SPLM knew he would lose and fair to waste nothing.

Mr. Kiir had opportunities before him, fortunately or unfortunately, he never made use of them. The West tried its best to push the NCP to the wall but Mr. Kiir failed to knock it off power. This could have been the chance to do so. If Mr. Kiir has chicken out, who is Mr. Arman to try it? In fact, Mr. Kiir is sacrificing Mr. Arman, something Mr. Saeed could have seen it coming and dodge it. I thought he was sober to refuse the offer. President Kiir is pushed into a precarious political position, where the power the supporters think could be his for ever is slipping away in their watch. The supporters of President have let down the people of the New Sudan and the President himself.

Mr. Akol Kordit please, go slow! Leave President Kiir alone. The South doesn’t need anyone to cause us trouble. We want peace now and there. Campaigning for Mr. Kiir for the next year (unknown year) is premature; people want peaceful transition from CPA era to Independence epoch in 2011. We are expected to swallow our pride, prepare our new born baby (The People’s Republic of Imatong). Time to look for costumes and drums for that big celebrations and alleluia singing. Mr. Arman project therefore can’t be detached from Southern political future if Mr. Kordit (a boy who sits in the Political Bureau of The Party) is anything to believe. Mr. Arman, I pity you!

The author writes from Juba, he can be reached at [email protected]