2010 elections in Sudan: It could be another African disaster!!!

By Ahmed Elzobier

March 28, 2010 — There are two weeks left until the elections in Sudan, however the expectations for a free and fair electoral process remain very low. About 18 opposition parties demanded the postponement of the elections till November 2010. They also threaten to boycott the elections altogether if their demands were not heeded. Several analysts have even predicted some post-election violence, whatever the result of the elections.

Last week, Human Rights Watch raised the alarm and announced that, “Conditions in Sudan are not yet conducive for a free, fair, and credible election.” The report also added that Sudanese authorities throughout the country were failing to uphold standards agreed to with the African Union in March. Major areas of concern, noted Human Rights Watch, include restrictions on freedom of assembly and expression, freedom of the press, and equal access to the media. HRW also reported similar concerns during voter registration in November and December 2009.

Furthermore, the Sudan Media and Elections Consortium reports that most television channels based in northern Sudan are giving the National Congress Party (NCP) much more airtime, about 75 percent, compared to other political parties. The report also adds that southern Sudan based media gives 90 percent of the monitored airtime to the Sudan Libration Movement (SPLM).

Last week the government of Sudan (or at least northern Sudan) committed many self-inflicted political blunders. They made it a habit to offend and upset everyone. They kept arresting young activists, threatened to sack medical doctors, and finally threatened to expel election observers. Addressing a crowd in Port Sudan during his campaign last week, Al-Bashir directed his anger towards unnamed elections observers and said, “….we will cut their fingers, noses and necks, we will put them under our shoes and expel them, if they interfere in our affairs.” In reaction to Al-Bashir’s statement, SPLM Secretary-General Pagan Amum said, “We at the SPLM will review our participation at the polls.”

The harsher tone, some analysts say, was designed to please hardliners within his party and to blackmail some of the observers in order to water down their pre- and post-elections reports. Some NCP leaders even went further, wanting the observers’ work to be so restricted as to act as in-house National Election Commission (NEC) reporters. A leading NCP politician said on 24 March, “the NCP has welcomed observers and pledged commitment to cooperate with them, but then some of these organizations use their observations as hostile media campaigns that shade doubts over credibility of the country’s electoral process.” “Their role is confined to presenting their observations on the exercise to the NEC,” he said.

But why is there such unchecked anger directed towards those who have doubts or concerns about the electoral process? A recent report published in March 2010 by the Council on Foreign Relations addressed this issue – “The NCP is unlikely to tolerate a result that does not extend President Omar Al-Bashir’s hold on power; this is not only to ensure regime survival but also to protect Bashir from being handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) following his March 2009 indictment for war crimes relating to Darfur. The NCP perceives that winning the election will confer international legitimacy on Bashir, rendering him less vulnerable to ICC prosecution.”

However, in December 2009 the International Crisis group (ICG) predicted that, “A fraudulent election process will not bring sustainable peace to Sudan. Illegitimate elections would escalate conflict and violence, notably from marginalized groups in both North and South.”

Also, the recent and extensive British Associate Parliamentary Group Report on Sudan points out that there have been cases of malpractice in previous elections, such as: “control of press, preventing candidates from standing, restricting campaigning, using state resources to support approved candidates, falsifying voters lists, intimidating voters at the polling station, stuffing ballot boxes, straightforward ballot box switches.” Now, if you add the widespread voter registration violations and the issue of census, many observers believe that the damage has already been done through disenfranchising millions of voters in Darfur and Southern Kordofan, and even in Khartoum.

Meanwhile, if recent African history has taught us anything it is that many rulers around the continent, blinded by power, are unable to learn from previous mistakes. In their desperate attempts to hold on to power they are prepared to do literally anything, including planting the seeds of their own destruction as well as that of their country.

Undoubtedly, the current climate in northern Sudan is not healthy for holding free and fair election, it is best to hold the elections in southern Sudan in April and delay the elections in the north till November 2010. The appeal to the deadly toxic mix of tribalism, religion, regionalism and political dogma is already underway, especially in Khartoum. If any one of these four sins is to be foolishly ignited during or after the coming elections, Sudan could be another African disaster that would make the experiences of Kenya and Zimbabwe look like romantic picnics by comparison. Wise and historic decision need to be taken in the Sudanese presidency meeting on Tuesday 30 of March, as the issue of elections postponement will be discussed. Could they do it? Let us wait and see, I hope the lunatics are not still running the asylum.

Ahmed Elzobier, is a Sudanese writer and Human rights activist. He can be reached at [email protected]