Is American policy over Sudan invidious?

By Izzadine Abdul Rasoul

May 4, 2010 — On Sunday second of May 2010, the US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton says she’s not satisfied with U.S. efforts in Sudan.
Clinton says she’s “certainly not satisfied with where we are and what we’re doing” about the African nation.

I am very happy and content with such courageous statement from the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. When we are weak somewhere, it’s better to admit instead of burying the heads in sand.

The million squares miles African largest country with not less than 350 tribes and languages has been long in war with itself ,even before its independent from British colony in 1956.

The US Special Envoy to Sudan Scot Gration made his well known statement that the election in Sudan will be free and fair. His statement was backed by the Former President of the United State Jimmy Carter who emphasized that President Bashir assured for him that Sudan election will be free and fair. At the same time all Sudan opposition parties were very clearly pointing out that the elections of Sudan are rigged from the beginning of the registration process up to the last minutes. Therefore the two statements put the Sudanese on disarray. The normal Sudanese people started to ask themselves that there must be something wrong at American policies over Sudan. Why America was awry and still awry on its position towards Sudan ruling Islamist party and the Sudanese people. This question needs an answer!

The listed contradicting statements from the officials in Obama administration was understood by many Sudanese as a role play to disguise the hidden American Agenda to dismantle Sudan, beginning with the South of Sudan, whether people of South Sudan want it or not. The scenario was to bring Bashir through rigged election then pressure him to make concessions on CPA. The second scenario to declare the independent of South Sudan through rigged votes in case many people in the South vote for the unity of Sudan. And on this last case then Bashir and his gangsters who came through rigged elections would not and will not be able to open their mouths to say that the referendum is rigged.

But are Sudan Islamists also naive simply like that as Obama Administration might think?

America to achieve the separation of South of Sudan has put Darfur question in the cold garage in Doha. Also forced to normalized the relation between Sudan and Chad by forces for many reasons: One of which is; if America allowed any country in this period to give support to Darfur rebels before they raise a stick for Al- Bashir to demarcate the boarders between the South Sudan and north Sudan for preparation of the independent of the South of Sudan, the Darfur rebels will topple the regime and ask the SPLM/A to be the real essential partners or even the head of state to guarantee the unification of Sudan. This scenario if it happens will foil the American plan to separate South from North Sudan because Darfur rebel movement especially Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) led by Abdel Wahid Nur is from the same school of Dr. Garang, where the former fought for new Sudan where all Sudanese will have equal citizenship regardless of religion or race; and the later is looking to establish secular liberal democratic Sudan where religion is clearly separated from the state. Then in this case people of South Sudan may change their minds to live in the united Sudan when the faces of those who were responsible of their killing and committed injustice on them over decades are gone.

Dear readers I am not a syllogistic but these are the facts we must agree, it was not even difficult for America to remove the Sudan Islamists from power. They have before stroke Al-Shifa medical factory in Sudan, in the time when Sudan Islamists were on their real glory and where all streets of Sudan were filled with song that translates, “with the name of God, America we are trained to destroy you” although the Islamist responded nothing but instead they started looking for communication channels to let America understand that the songs are just for public use.

America as a paragon to be an example of excellence will they really separate South of Sudan from Sudan? Before answering this parable; let us see the challenges that are in South Sudan! The South Sudan social composition is triggered on tribal roots in the first place base, like the rest of Sudan. There are more than twenty tribes and sub-tribes competing for power in South Sudan.

The main competitors who want to rule South Sudan are the main biggest tribes like, Dinka, Nuer and Shuluk. While the rest of the small tribes in South Sudan express their fear that if they vote for the independent of the south Sudan then their situations will not be better than now when they are in one united Sudan. In Juba and other cities in South Sudan the minority tribes say that if they South Sudan have taken its independents then they will be under the rule of new oppressors specially the Dinkas and Nuer who only employ their tribesmen in governmental posts. However the difference in South Sudan does not exist only between the tribes but also within one tribe; for example in Dinka tribe there are Dinka Bor who don’t like Dinka Baher-Elgazal and Dinka Awil who are working against other clan from the same tribe ….and so on. The same case is applicable in Nuer and Shuluk.

Now let us imagine what will happen when the South of Sudan is voting for referendum to take its independent and beforehand the Islamist government in the north knows well how to manipulate these difference as it used to do in the time of war between North and the South of Sudan ? Let us say that the US Government will bring in Marines to protect the South Sudan but will it be involved in tribal fights. Also let us not forget the three areas, the Blue Nile, Ab Yei and the Nuba Mountains these three places fought side by side with the people of South Sudan that was led by late Dr. Garang to create a new Sudan. Now the dream of the new Sudan has become a mirage.

If the South Sudan has gone; will the Islamist Government in Khartoum and its allies from Arab and Islamic countries who benefit from Sudan; allow Blue Nile and Nuba Mountains to go for good like South Sudan? Here I don’t think so! Then the war will erupt in these two areas again. But will the independent South Sudan stand aside and look with blind eyes his friends in Blue Nile and Nuba Mountains be killed and raped by the same enemy who killed the Southerners for decades?

Although the people in the North of Sudan realized very too late, that they were %200 wrong on their mal-treatment to the people of South Sudan. North Sudan is desert where people depend on ten to two hundred meters extended farming land from the River Nile bank. The north of Sudan mostly depend on its food generation on others parts of Sudan like South Sudan, Blue Nile Darfur and Kordofan. Today the fear of the people in the North including Egypt has increased when the Nile Basin Countries are excluding Sudan and Egypt from the new Nile water treaty. The quota of Nile water for Sudan I mean the North Sudan and Egypt is going to reduce to zero after the new deal. It’s very true that the people in the North of Sudan and their Islamist counterparts in power are indeed in vicious circle. Are they going to put their hand on their heads and cry for the past mistakes? I doubt they will not, oh man! its matter of be or not to be!

It’s very clear that America will freeze the cause of people of Darfur, regionally and internationally as well, until the South Sudan is separated. If the South Sudan is separated then America will opt people of Darfur; either to go back to the old days of their kingdom before 1916, or stay as slaves in the hands of the Arab Islamist in the North.

If all these expectations; let say I have imagined have become true, then the entire country of Sudan and the neighbours countries will be in mess. Then it will be very difficult for America or say Obama administration to sort out things. Because when people are in wars things jumble up and makes it difficult to know who is who, and also will be difficult to easily disengage the warring parties as the case studies in Iraq.

The current situations in Sudan is easy to be identified, the war in Darfur between the central government and Darfur rebels; and the cold war which is the extension of the war between South and the North. But I hope all I wrote not to be true because Somalization will not just be the lost of the north Sudan including Darfur but also the lost of the American dreamed of Independent South Sudan.

When I was told that one of the British authors wrote a book entitled: When God Created Sudan he laughed. Although, I failed to find this book but the contradictions that exists in this country cannot just be understood through intelligence collected information, but it needs more efforts.

At last I would say; Hillary you are %100 right! Your administration failed to diagnose Sudan sickness in the first place. So please rethink Obama!
It’s been said; “ if you try to please everybody, then you please nobody”

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