Post-referendum: The dilemma of North Sudan
By Ahmed Elzobier
May 24, 2010 — Seven months from now, following the referendum in 2011, if the south chooses to secede northern Sudan will be facing an unpredictable political and economic future. The high growth rate of the country’s economy over the past five years was mostly due to oil production that reached 500,000 barrels per day. Subsequently, Sudan has become sub-Saharan Africa’s third largest oil producer. Oil now constitutes 90 percent of the country’s exports and about 55 percent of its GDP, however, about 80 percent of Sudan’s proven reserves of 6.3 billion barrels are in Southern Sudan. Meanwhile, in March 2010, the Japanese company Toyota Tsusho Corporation proposed the construction of a US$1.5 billion pipeline transporting oil from South Sudan to the Kenyan island of Lamu. China has also expressed interest in a pipeline through Kenya and this could be completed within two to four years. If that is the case, some 80 percent of the oil revenue will shift from Khartoum to Juba. Other economic challenges facing northern Sudan include the massive rural-urban migration, institutionalized corruption and a “fend for yourself” economic policy. Sudan also remains one of the most socially unequal countries in Africa, or indeed, the world. In 2008 the UNDP reported that about 60–75% of the population in the North is estimated to be living below the poverty line of less than US$1 a day.
Now, the looming possibility of separation means the oil bonanza may be coming to an end. Since 2005 considerable sums of money have been foolishly wasted in propping up the security forces, paying for political patronage and spending wildly on the consumption of luxury goods and high-rise buildings – a reminder of Nauru Island’s destiny after it depleted its phosphate deposits in the 1990s. Following the financial crisis in 2008, oil revenue declined by 60% in 2009, approximately $2.5 billion compared to $6.5 billion in 2008. As the Government’s general revenue in the North is also expected to decline further next year the logical choice, a more humbling one, is to increase the production and export of non-oil products, but with no proper planning this will be hard to achieve. The North has also had to face the reality of an external debt which was estimated at $36.27 billion in 2009. The dilemma is that Sudan needs to satisfy the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC’s) conditions to be considered for debt cancelation or relief, among them, resolving the Darfur conflict and the ICC issue; however, with the current regime in power this seems impossible.
Furthermore, the separation of southern Sudan might be considered by many historians as a dent in the soul of Islamic and Arab culture, a serious indictment of its lack of tolerance and acceptance of others as manifested by their deluded “more royal than a king” followers in Sudan. The North, in addition to the fact that it is currently ruled by war crimes suspects and is regarded by many countries around the world as a pariah state, will eventually be reviled by its former Arab sponsors for wasting their money. The North will remain despised and mistrusted by Africans for helping to destroy another African country. Internally, after the rigged elections, more oppression and human rights violations will undoubtedly be committed, the savage war in Darfur will continue.
So where do we go from here? It will be a painful soul-searching journey but as singer Michael Jackson put it, “I’m starting with the man in the mirror / I’m asking him to change his ways”. But can he truly change?
The author is a Sudan Tribune journalist; he can be reached at [email protected]
jur_likang_a_ likan'g
Post-referendum: The dilemma of North Sudan
What your article is all about is a trial to buy sympathy from the world so that the CPA referendum put Unity as the only option for Southerners who will have to be the key to that pseudo-unity. In deed that is long gone Northerners have to learn to be trully themselves. They must stand for life with whatever they have in their disposal. They exploited our resources for centuries without giving back little for our development. In this process they silenced us brutally. They murdered our people, suppressed our political vision in the running of our country, oppressed our politicians. Now is the time for us develop ourselves with what God has blessed us with.
Thyinka
Post-referendum: The dilemma of North Sudan
Thanks you Mr. Ahmed for your analysis of the dilemma of North Sudan. I wish more of our brothers from the North would be more honest and straight forward in discussing some of the things that are breaking Sudan apart instead of burying their heads in the sand and condemning the separation of Southern Sudan.
The average man would see the oil in Southern Sudan being used exclusively by the South but I believe that Southern Sudan has an interest in the economic stability of Northern Sudan and they will come up with some arrangement where the North will benefits from the South’s oil for sometimes until they find alternative economic activities. The key things is that it is Juba that will be dividing the revenues, not Khartoum and I think Southerners would be okay with such arrangement.
Adam
Post-referendum: The dilemma of North Sudan
Hello
This is a one eye version of the story. It is even very limited ans naiive. The consequences of separation on both the North and South are so dramatic, painful and undesired. I was expecting a comprehensive and non bias article.
I know, the readers are more intelligent to be just given this one-sided blur picture. As a Southerner, I should not be happy to see the North suffers. It is just not in our interest and benefit. Stable and prosperous North means much to the New South.
I need the readers to also write something about the painful consequences of separtion on the Southerners. We must be honest.
Adam Milwaki, Kansas
julius mowanga
Post-referendum: The dilemma of North Sudan
Whoever projecting the defragmentaion of the Republic of Sudan is realy illusive.The two regions of Sudan,North and the South,aware and understands very well the catastrophic impact of the secession,therefore,none of the ruling parties ,SPLM/A-NCP/NIF,will let it happened and sabotaging their blunders.If there will be a fair and transparent referundom followed by a similiar elections,(SPLM-NCP) will lose the grip of power/wealth once and forever.That all the international intelligence agencies has predicted,because the Sudanese people, in bothsides, had suffered enough from these two dictatoral governments,and definitely will opt to a different alternatives, to remove SPLM/A-NCP/NIF from the power.
NCP and SPLA had highjacked the recent elections’ results,so it will be very obvious that,they will repeat the same scenario during the referendum,inorder to keep their lifeline forecibly.The NCP and SPLM already has compromised their national agendas,they vowed to restore the unity of Sudan,despite the wish of their citizens,and split the ruling of the country politically.So it’s a win-win for SPLM/A-NCP/NIF to maintain their partnership and keep looting the nation’s resources unaccountably.
A richman asked Jesus Christ; what to do to enter heaven?Jesus answered him that; he has to keep the commandments-“Moses’ Law as The Sharia Law for NCP”-Then the richman said that, he does keep the commandments,asking Jesus, what else he can do to enter heaven?! Jesus answered him; go and distribute all your wealth and belongings to the needy people, then follow me and you will enter heaven. Thus Jesus Christ taught us, it’s easier to the camel to go through the needle hole, than the richman to enter heaven.
IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TASK TO THE RICHEST PEOPLE, TO ABANDON THEIR RICHNESS EVEN FOR THE SAKE OF THEIR OWN SOULS’ SALVATION. HOW ABOUT THE NEW ACQUIRED WEALTH AND POWER OF NCP-SPLM CROOKS???!!!……
Sorry Sudanese People, your cake has been eaten by your servants……..sorry
R. TOOL
Post-referendum: The dilemma of North Sudan
Mr. Ahmed Elzobier,
You asked “So where do we go from here?” Well, sir no turning back from here, those who called themselves Arabs in the north must face the consequences of their doing. After you (not you personally) people killed almost 3 millions people in the southern Sudan in the name of Islam … I pity you people. Southern Sudan is self sufficient to be an independent country. No one in this world will feel sorry for the people of northern Sudan. In my humble opinion, you wrote a nice article, but it is a little too late. Also, I don’t believe after writing such article, you will not be welcome back in north Sudan, your chances of freedom … you’re better off living in Southern Sudan.
Here is my advice/suggestion to the President of Southern Sudan:
Dear Mr. President,
I am one of your many supporters around the world. Mr. President you need to unilaterally declare Southern Sudan state immediately and, possibly as early as the summer of 2010 with or without referendum. If you can’t declare Independence this summer of 2010, then you need to Mr. President, get the people of Southern Sudan ready for the year of 2011 Independence. People of Southern Sudan are almost at the finish line.
This is it, no time to waste Mr. President, you should begin ambitious of reforms of the government and security forces, building up the Southern Sudan institutions and developing the contingency in preparation for independence. The reforms will be welcome by many (nations) countries.
Wad Burri
Post-referendum: The dilemma of North Sudan
Dear Writer,
Is it true that the north will suffer a lot when the oil’s money ceases to pour in the northern coffers? I believe the answer is in the article itself which quotes the following “In 2008 the UNDP reported that about 60–75% of the population in the North is estimated to be living below the poverty line of less than US$1 a day.” So the question is who will suffer? I believe it is the ruling elite.
The northern masses, farmers, pastoralists and ordinary people have been suffering silently for decades. Their production and wealth were stolen to satisfy the insatiable bellies of Khartoum rulers because of the war in the south, sons taken forcibly to fight a war not of their choice; heinous crimes committed under their name without consulting them.
We all have been suffering, to varying degrees, from exploitation of our resources without getting our due share. Cost of oil exploitation was shouldered by all. For decades, the black market was flooded with goods that were allocated to the south but found their way to northern markets, at extremely high prices, because of ploys by northern and southern politicians working in tandem with black marketers. We have seen hundreds of foreigners getting richer and richer while sons of the land were denied the same. I may go on and on for several pages.
In conclusion, dear northern intellectuals you dicredit yourself when you make such comments trying to appease the southerners. They are tooo smart to be cheated by such cheap writings. You solve no problem nor do you open chance for the way forward.
Kur
Post-referendum: The dilemma of North Sudan
Yes, these are the facts that need to be told. The shambolic situation that will follow Jan 2011 in the North of what we now know as Sudan will teach some idiots a lesson they will live to regret. The people of South Sudan, who have been treated as objects of ridicule by the northen elite for years, will now shed off the yoke of shame they have endured for so long.
” You never know the value of your little finger until you lose it”, they say. The people in the North who have been calling us names for decades will know the value of South Sudan 3 months after the referendum. Sure, we will move those pipelines to East Africa because we have already built North Sudan with our money, but we remain the poorest people of the world. So we are ready to take our destiny in our hands, and there is no doubt we will never look back again to Khartoum because we owe it nothing but poverty, destruction, and humiliation.
Kur