The Revert to confederation is a directionless politics

By Justin Ambago Ramba, MD.

June 3, 2010 — Those who read the Sudan Tribune 02/07/10, could not have missed the report on the joint meeting between the Sudan’s federal government and the government of south Sudan that took place in the southern capital of Juba. In that report I must seriously confess that it all came to me as a surprise when the vice president Ali Osman Taha, who was there to represent the northern ruling elites, when he made the following remarks and I quote:

“It is important that the southern Sudanese citizens feel the value of peace through provision of services for them and improvement of their living conditions,” he said.

However, I don’t think that the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the north and the south has ever gone beyond the level of a cease fire as long as the trading of accusations and war of words continue to be exchanged between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), even though paradoxically they remain to be referred to in some quarters as Sudan’s peace partners.

Everybody knows that south Sudan at this moment in time remains more insecure than the equally war ravaged western province of Darfur. Both the representatives from the north and the south should understand that for any services to be of a meaning the people, real peace, rule of law and democratic transformation needs to be realized. Unless these basic pre-requisites are guaranteed or at least seen to go side by side with those much advertised developments projects, their importance can only be appreciated by those who have hidden agendas, far beyond the immediate concern of our majority disadvantaged grass-roots.

Talking of improving the living conditions of people in places like Western Equatoria State, just as an example, will have to be preceded by the entire eradication of the notorious Ugandan rebel groups of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and thereafter enabling the citizens to resettle peacefully in their home villages, where they can farm their fields and attend to their traditional livelihoods. Or how do we expect the marginalized of the marginalised in remote areas like Pibor or Akobo to experience the much talked-of peace dividends when hardly a day passes by without cattle raids or inter-tribal clashes?

Taha’s expressed disappointment at the international community for failing to follow through on their pledges to provide the necessary support for the development and rehabilitation programs in south Sudan is another lame excuse. Much money has already been poured in SPLM led GoSS and we know that billions of dollars went unaccounted for. I don’t think that the international community should also take the place of law enforcement in south Sudan and force the corrupted GoSS officials to surrender back the stolen funds.

The international community may have its own vision of south Sudan’s future; the citizens themselves are never demanding that any developmental projections be put in place as a price for what they will choose in the referendum to come. The basic fact is that this region is the most underdeveloped place in the world. It never had infrastructures in place even during the colonial rule. Though fifty years of war can be claimed to have taken its toll, however south Sudan in fact needs a nation building and not just a re-construction program since most of those things will need to be introduced for the first time ever.

In the same report I was again stopped, this time for a much long time when I came across this statement, and I quote:

“Topping the agenda of Taha and Southern officials is the option of confederation between the North and South in lieu of secession, a compromise which could bring relief to many regional and international actors.”

If the purpose of the Joint Meeting in Juba was to sign ‘the so-called Unity Fund Project’ for south Sudan in its modest cost of 200 US dollars, and to be executed within the remaining life span of the united Sudan, which is roughly six months, one can clearly see how the option of confederation sneaked in to top the meeting’s agenda..

As I have clearly pointed out somewhere in this article, that genuine investments are in demand in south Sudan, a region which basically lacks everything in the area of infrastructure. The intervention of investors is both an urgent and strategic issue here. The abundance of the different natural resources and broad opportunities for wider investments stands to defy all the reasons behind the sufferings of the people in these parts of the world.

Equally true for possible investors to come and invest in the virgin lands of south Sudan, the authorities of the region need to promote peace and stability. And nothing here can justify the constant association of any levels of investment with the south’s choice of either unity or secession. However as secession seems to be the most likely choice for our people, then we have a moral duty to make sure that both peace and stability prevail so that we can develop. And it is never going to work the other way round.

As for the average south Sudanese, the CPA comes to an end in 2011, after which if the referendum doesn’t take place, the fate of the whole country enters a political limbo. Sudan can only become peacefully united or separated through holding a fair and credible referendum where southerners will choose between the two options. Confederation which is coming up recently is no more than putting hurdles in the way of the plebiscite. Since it is nowhere mentioned in the CPA document, then tabling it at this particular moment in time is a clear violations of the agreement itself.

Confederation is indeed a compromise, not between secession and unity, but simply another form for the latter. Until we as southerners determine our position on sovereignty, there can never be any room for sound future issues. Talks of confederation are themselves as tricky as anything else. And given the way things stand right now, I even believe that should confederation between south Sudan and its neighbors become a necessity for its survival as a state, then with the experience of the Islamic Laws in the northern Sudan, we may be better off confederating with the countries of the East African Community, than turning again to the north as if our collective memories are failing us.

Another issue I also found quite distorting in the news is the demarcation of the North/South Sudan borders. The fact that it could be some of the issues where the African Union’s (AU) assistance might be sought, a comment by one reporter that such an assignment may contradict with the organization’s principles of maintaining the colonial bounders of Africa sounds rather sinister.

Let us get it right, for the disputed borders between the north and the south that needs to be demarcated is to be based on Sudan’s colonial maps as they stand on the eve of the 1956. That is exactly what we are asking the AU to do in its capacity as a stake holder in the CPA. It is with the aim of fully implementing this agreement, to the spirit and letter something that the US administration, AU, EU and the entire International community has engaged themselves as signatories, that the people of south Sudan continue to seek their positive involvement.

It is now about time that the CPA is fully implemented of the CPA, as well as putting the post referendum arrangements in place. However nobody in the NCP-SPLM partnership will be allowed to misinterpret to us that confederation still remains an option when the two sides had since long put it out of the political equation, dating back to the Abuja 1 and Abuja 2 peace talks , years even before reaching the current and final structure of the CPA.

I can only conclude my article by reflecting on what was raised up in one of the fora by a concerned south Sudanese elder, who prefers to remain anonymous, and he called it food for thought, and I quote:

“The UN representative in the Sudan promised that “his organization will provide technical and logistical support and, in addition will play the role of observer.” What does that mean? Supply transportation and manpower? Will the UN intervene if an uneducated person is being forced to vote a certain way? Can they nullify the result of a rigged plebiscite? Will they not conclude that “by African Standards” it was acceptable? Meaning, in Africa cheating is a way of life, therefore acceptable. “He said.

“The responsibility lies on us to educate the people, to make them aware of what they are up against and to listen to no one but their own hearts. They must be willing to resist coercion, to death if need be. We must tell the people to stand up for themselves. Only when the people defy the corrupt government can we win. “He added.

If we were collectively cowed into accepting the forged Census results, and the equally rigged April 2010 national Election’s results, although it is no longer a secret that those two important CPA bench marks were seriously marred by ‘state sponsored’ fraud, so are we now also prepared to put up with a rigged referendum in the waiting?

It is my wish that all our concerned citizens and members of the various civil societies take a critical look into the rapidly changing events on the ground. But as it is often the case that even the most educated amongst us can be tempted to keep silent in order the save their lives or jobs or win the approval of the current NCP-SPLM crews while they recklessly sail with us over the most angry political waves. Let us be ready to address the uncertainties ahead as a people with one destiny, if we are ever to reach that common destination.

The author: Dr. Justin Ambago Ramba, a south Sudanese residing in the United Kingdom. Can be reached at [email protected] or [email protected]