Fair and transparent oil deal needed to prevent return to north-south war
June 6, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — An agreement over future oil revenues will be critical in preventing a return to war between north and south Sudan after a referendum on southern independence due to take place in January 2011, according to a campaign group.
“The precariousness of the situation cannot be overstated. Half of the Sudanese government’s domestic revenue comes from oil, yet most of the oil fields are in the south which could be an independent country next year. Both sides appear to be preparing for the worst, with armies stationed on the border. There is a clear and present need for the negotiators to address what will happen to the oil, whatever the result of the referendum,” said Global Witness campaigner Rosie Sharpe.
Southern Sudan has the possibility decide to form a new country in January as part of a peace deal in 2005 that ended 22 years of conflict. As well as agreeing to a referendum on southern independence both sides agreed to receive half the oil revenue from wells in the south.
The two partners of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, National Congress Party and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 23 June 2010 on the structure and framework of the post-referendum negotiations.
The MoU is an agreement on how the talks shall be structured, that includes division of the negotiations between four working groups: on citizenship, on security, on financial, economic and natural resources issues, and on international treaties and legal issues.
The post-referendum negotiations are scheduled to start on 5 July 2010 and are due to be facilitated by the African Union with support from the UN and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The issues will be further discussed at the 15th African Union summit, to be held in Uganda, 19-27 July 2010.
“There is such a lot of money at stake and such a lot of mistrust between the two parties, any new oil deal has to have checks and balances in it in order to ensure that it is strong and transparent enough to encourage peace and cooperation. If the deal goes wrong it is difficult to see it ending in anything but a fight for control of the oil fields,” said Sharpe.
The $8 billion that has flowed from the central government to the semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan has, according to Global Witness, been largely responsible for keeping the peace deal together.
Should the south vote for secession an independent southern Sudan would be extremely impoverished and heavily dependent on oil revenues, which would still have to be exported out of north Sudan by the central government in which the south has little trust.
In October 2007, suspicions over whether oil revenues were being shared fairly caused the Comprehensive Peace Agreement to come close to falling apart, when the south temporarily pulled out of the power sharing government.
To avoid a return to conflict Global Witness suggest that any new oil deal must make compliance easily verifiable by committing to full disclosure of revenues paid to and received by both north and south, it must be backed up by an independent monitor, and incorporate a dispute resolution mechanism.
The US Special Envoy to Sudan, General Scott Gration, has stated that without a new oil deal and an agreement on the north-south boundary, the odds of a return to violence are very high.
(ST)
Dinka Boy
Fair and transparent oil deal needed to prevent return to north-south war
Dear South Sudanese,
SPLM knows that the NCP base their interest on oil in the South Sudan,but who will let them take our natural resources in our territories( South)?
Yes, there will be a war with this Arab because of the oil. But the SPLA is ready to defend their identity and their pride.
We ( South) will not make another deal with the North about the sharing/deal for oil.
The South will take the oil located in the South while the North will take the oil in the North. Simple as that.
If NCP expect to take oil in the South by force then that will be a clear war.
Yes, the war will happen because of oil and border.
murlescrewed
Fair and transparent oil deal needed to prevent return to north-south war
There is no avoiding war along North-South border. The only thing that could avert it a Confederation arrangement where South enjoys greater autonomy and both parts of Sudan pursue economic integration as the first step towards eventual unity. The CPA did not give Sudan enough time to make unity attractive. You can’t even complete a project in 6 years that would convince Southerners to vote for unity.
For now the only way to avoid war is to delay it. It will eventually happen when North realizes that it has lost billions overnight.
Angelo Achuil
Fair and transparent oil deal needed to prevent return to north-south war
When CPA (which grants the option for secession) was signed in 2005, where was the oil? Didn’t Khartoum know the oil was in the South? Yes they did. Why would it becomes an issue now to tell Juba that unless we divide the oil in your backyard, we would go back to war? This is an intimidation which would only aggravates post -referrendum relation btwn N & S. The South fought against this kind of intimidation for the last 2 decades and won’t accept it now.
jalabi
Fair and transparent oil deal needed to prevent return to north-south war
The war returning inevitably, what are we waiting for?
Sudan army forces (SAF) should fulfill its duty and responsibilty and bring back that rich land to our main land of Sudan.
SAF is well equiped now and ready to fight gangsters and outlaws, we can easily defeat Dinka this time, their chrosmatic leader Garang passed away and decisive victory is under way.
Unless we invade them now and before referendum we will be in big trouble and will face countless problems.
Jalabi (Abo Jalabia)