Sudan Islamists will never win senseless wars

By Maker Mabor Marial

August 5, 2010 — As the referendum in which the people of southern Sudan will vote to decide whether to remain in the United Sudan or secede looms, many leaders from the Arab world, African Union or AU, International community and the Islamists in northern Sudan are alarmed by the inevitability that the South would likely break away as Africa new independence country. For this reason, these groups believe that southern Sudan would be a “weak state” and unable to effectively govern itself if allowed to go separate.

According to them, subsequent power struggle among leaders of different tribes in the south would either lead to bloodbath like the 1994 Rwanda’s genocide in which 800,000 Tutsis and their moderate Hutus were killed or else create another “somaliazation of south Sudan” in East Africa. On the other hand, they argue that if southern Sudan breaks away from north it would encourage other movements with similar separatist’s ideology in Africa as well as in the Middle East to seek the same privilege.

However, whatever the argument might be, the choice is solely for the people of southern Sudan to determine their own destiny. It’s the choice of the Southern Sudanese because they are the ones who have been marginalized and treated as second class citizens in their own country for the last 55 years. They are also the ones whose brothers, sisters, mothers, wives, children husbands, relatives, grandparents and friends were slaughtered by Mujahedeen during the two decades civil war while the world watched.

Earlier last week, Gurtong reported that a politician from Southern Sudan, John Andruga Duku warned the African Union’s (AU) Kampala summit, that the January 9, 2011 referendum “is a matter of life and death for which Southern Sudan cannot tolerate sabotage.” Indeed, any attempt by the Government of Sudan (GoS) or any other foreign body to force unity on the people of the southern Sudan against their aspiration will eventually lead to a full scale war and many innocent lives will be lost as a consequent. Thus, it’s better for the Islamists in Khartoum and the world to take a neutral position and let the Southern Sudanese go to polls and determine their fate.

The 2005 peace accord between the National Congress Party (NCP) formerly known as National Islamic Front (NIF), and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) gave both parties a grace period of six years to work on making unity attractive however the regime in Khartoum failed in its obligation to persuade southerners to vote for unity.

As a substitute, the Islamists’ regime had spent most of its times trying to stir up violence by arming and sponsoring the militias within southern Sudan in hope to destabilize the autonomous region during the last five years. Certainly, it had achieved some of its target by pitting tribes against tribes. This had resulted in the death of more than 2,500 people and 350, 000 displaced from their homes according to the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) estimate. On the other hand, the regime had failed to achieve its main objective of creating chaos in the region through its relentless efforts to make the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) unable to govern its people effectively during the interim period. Nevertheless, despite Khartoum’s attempts to push for violence in the South, the Government of Southern Sudan or GoSS stayed foot and brought most of the militia groups under its control.

The successive regimes in Khartoum used these kinds of tactics before and were able to successfully dismantle previous agreements signed between Southern Sudan and the regimes from 1970’s to 1990’s but it was different this time. Izzadine Abdul Rasoul in his latest article published by Sudan Tribune explained, “the Islamists by majority agreed on signing of the CPA, despite of the NCP minority member’s rejection on the deal because they had a plan on it. The main idea behind accepting the deal was to bring in the South Sudan rebels inside Sudan and squeeze them, until they are weaken then rejects the CPA like other rejected agreements signed on South Sudan. The Islamists had good examples of disrespected agreements on the South Sudan; beginning from Addis Ababa Peace Agreement in 1972 between the Late former President of Sudan Jaffar Nimeri and Ex-South Sudan Anya nya rebel leader Joseph Lagu; ending with Khartoum or Fashoda Peace Agreement.”

In deed, this is what the Islamists in the Khartoum regime had hoped for when they signed the Peace Agreement. They under estimated the current leadership in the South and hoped that they would drag their feet on the implementation of the CPA and slowly kill it or frustrate the leadership in the south to resort to war. The regime used this tactics to kill the two agreements it signed in 1997 with two SPLM splinter groups separately led by Dr. Riek Machar and Dr. Lam Akol. This time the regime was unsuccessful. The leadership in the South had learned from the previous broken agreements and had very much anticipated all sorts of games the regime planned to use to destroy the CPA.

Being futile in its attempts to bring down the Government of Southern (GoSS) through the use of the local militias, the regime is now telling the world especially their allies that southern Sudan would disintegrate into chaos and violence if allowed to secede. Accordingly, Ali Osman Taha, the Sudan’s 2nd Vice President is reported by Sudan Tribune to have warned a youth gathering for the National Congress Party (NCP) that “the possible independence of the South will create havoc and chaos that was witnessed in countries with similar experience.” He also added that, “the ethnic and racial diversity should not scare us because it represents one of the requirements for Sudan to remain one and united.”

Of course, ethnic and racial segregation are the roots cause of our problems and disunity of the country. The regimes in Khartoum have for many decades used ethnicity and racial discrimination to manipulate the Arabic elites in the north to kill people in south, east, west central Sudan and Blue Nile. These atrocities are still being committed in Darfur today whereby the notorious Arab militias known as janjaweeds are supported by the regime in Khartoum to kill, rap and forcefully displace the black African Darfuris from their land.

Ahmed Hussein, the official spokesperson of Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) was recently quoted by Sudan Tribune as saying “our people need hope, they have right to live under state of citizenship, freedom, equality and rule of law. We can not accept this indefinite state of status-quo.” Mr. Hussein made these remarks recently when he called for Self-determination for Darfur.

Ironically, the next part of the country that will subsequently integrate into chaos will not be the south this time as Islamists and their friends have been preaching, but will be the north where majority black Africans along with their fellow Arabs Sudanese felt marginalized and have now resorted to taking up arms to fight for their own rights. Northern Sudan will eventually be engulfed in violence unless the current regime whose its leaders have been indicted by the International Criminal (ICC) for war crimes, crime against humanity and genocides committed in Darfur is removed from power.

Ahmed Elzobier in his recent article published by Sudan Tribune wrote, “for since independence the elites have failed miserably to understand the nature of their own country. They literarily dragged the nation into the abyss. They especially failed to perceive southern Sudan as a region of the coherent societies, each with its own culture and history, because that would take a leap to empathy that few, if any, of the northern elites could make, then or now.”

For decades, the Arabic and Islamic oriented elites in the north have failed to recognize the fact that Sudan is a multiethnic, multicultural, multilingual and multi-religious country. Instead they have tried earnestly to impose their Arabic culture and Islamic ideology on anybody in the country. They have continued to do this even after both parties to the peace agreements were on the assignment of making unity attractive.

They have continued to marginalize majority of the Sudanese, impose sharia law on everybody, disallow freedom of speech through media censorship, deny developmental projects in field of health, education and infrastructure and above all cheat southern Sudan out of millions of oil’s monies. Accordingly, a journalist for Sudan Tribune wrote, “many critics in Sudan blame the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) for encouraging secessionist sentiments in the country through marginalizing non-Arab ethnicities and holding strongly to the cores of wealth and power. Others say that the ruling party has played ‘divided and conquer’ among tribes in Darfur and the South to weaken these regions and remain in control.”

Hence, the Islamists led regime in Khartoum had a better chance during the interim period to transform the government into a democratic government whereby all the Sudanese citizens have access to resources equitably, participate in their government, speak their minds freely and live in a country whereby anybody has a right to practice his or her own belief. However, the belligerent regime in Khartoum has failed to make unity attractive.

So, it’s too late at this hour for the regime and its allies to cry out for unity. Unity was given a chance but the Islamist elites in Khartoum have killed it. For the last five years, South has shown to the world that it’s capable of ruling itself successfully without the north. This is exemplified by the massive developments in the south which include erection of over more twenty hotels in Juba, construction of a few paved roads, schools, and hospitals just to mention a few. Also, there has been more freedom of choice and expression in the South compared to North. Additionally, GoSS has brought the tribal conflicts instigated by the regime in Khartoum under control. And as a result, southern Sudan has all the reasons to be an independence state. However, it will not lose its vision for a democratic Sudan, it will continue to support other marginalized groups in the north to fight for their own rights by all means.

The author is a Sudanese citizen and lives in the United States. He can be reached at [email protected].