‘Postponement of Abyei referendum is undesirable but may be unavoidable’ – RVI

October 31, 2010 (JUBA) – A report by a respected research organisation says that January’s referendum in Sudan’s oil-rich border region of Abyei may have to be postponed until April due to severe delays to preparations.

Abyei’s referendum will determine whether the region remains as part of the north or joins what could be a newly-independent south. As part of a 2005 peace deal that ended 22 years of civil war the south is due to hold a simultaneous self determination vote. With less than 70 days to go until voting is due to begin the Rift Valley Institute (RVI) report concludes that ‘brinkmanship, delay and broken agreements – old traditions of Sudanese politics – threaten to turn the political and technical challenges of the referenda into a national disaster.’ Last week the head of the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission conducting the referendum process during the remaining short period will be a complete miracle. The parties to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party and the former southern rebels the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) have failed to implement the majority of the deal on time. Senior NCP politicians have suggested that Abyei’s vote be delayed in order to resolve north-south boundary demarcation, the appointment of members of the referendum commission, the question of voter eligibility and residency and issues of public security. For these reasons ‘postponement of the Abyei referendum is undesirable but may be unavoidable’ the report said. If the members of the commission to run the vote (who were due to be named in January this year) are not named within the next two weeks ‘it will not be practicable to hold the Abyei referendum on time’ the report says. Talks to resolve the Abyei issue have remain deadlocked. The NCP has insisted that the Misseriya tribe, who enter Abyei with their cattle for a few months each year be given full voting rights. But the SPLM have refused, saying only permanent residents – the vast majority of whom are Dinka Ngok a tribe alligned with the south – are able to vote. Consequently no timetable for voter registration in Abyei has been agreed. As things stand the report says that Abyei’s poll is so far behind schedule that the legal requirements of the poll may not be met. The report’s author Aly Verjee argues that the best way to avoid the Abyei and southern referenda becoming a ‘national disaster’ triggering a third north-south civil war is a ‘political fix’ in the form a new deal or ‘Comprehensive Peace Agreement II’. As well outstanding issues regarding the process of the referenda, any new deal should also agree on post-referenda issues, such as citizenship and sharing of oil revenues from the south’s oil fields. The new deal should see both sides ‘recommit’ to the referendum process and restate that they will the result but also agree on a ‘possible date for a postponed Abyei referendum’. Despite suggestion that the Abyei referendum may have to be postponed by around three months the delaying of the southern vote would not solve any of the existing problems, the report says. “Even with an agreement between the parties to modify the provisions of the referenda laws, there is barely time for registration: for procedural decisions to be taken and acted on and for registration itself to take place. All these stages could also be subject to dispute between the parties,” it says. International Recognition The SPLM, who have governed the south since the CPA in 2005, have suggested that the south could hold it’s own referendum independently of the NCP in the event that the two sides are unable to reach agreement on key issues, which may prevent the referenda going ahead on time. But the RVI report rejects the idea arguing that any process that does not involve the full participation of Sudan’s ruling party would render the exercise entirely meaningless. A unilateral referendum, would not only contravene some articles of the CPA, the report says, the other consequence is that ‘under these conditions would be unlikely to gain full international recognition or promote national consensus.’ April’s Elections Meanwhile for the referenda to have credulity, the report notes, they will have to held to a higher standard than this year’s April elections. Describing the referenda as “unique and unrepeatable events,” the report urges the referenda commission to establish a higher standard than that achieved by the electoral commission in the 2010 elections, through adequate staff training and effective administration. RVI is a non-profit research and training organisation operating in Sudan, the Horn of Africa, East Africa and the Great Lakes, with projects designed to inform aid interventions, support local research capacity, record indigenous culture and promote human rights. (ST) The full report Race Against Time: The countdown to the referenda in Southern Sudan and Abyei by Aly Verjee (2010) can be downloaded below. Race_Against_Time_-_Aly_Verjee_-_30_Oct_2010-2.pdf

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