Will independent South Sudan be like Somalia?
By Zechariah Manyok Biar
January 2, 2011 — We have entered 2011 and there is strong indication that South Sudanese are going to vote for secession, starting from Sunday this week. That means we will now turn our focus on the future of South Sudan, or whatever the name of the new nation would be.
As part of the focus on the future of our new nation, the first question that I will try to answer is whether or not an independent South Sudan will be like the current Somalia. One could be tempted to dismiss the possibilities of the comparison of South Sudan with Somalia immediately, but that would be too quick a judgment. The correct answer is not yet clear even though we believe we will not be like Somalia.
South Sudan, on the one hand, will not be like Somalia if we follow the principles of democracy that brought us this far. These principles may not be what we mean as we say them, but they are the foundation of our forthcoming nation. These principles put the choice of leaders in the hands of the people. That was how the majority of the current leaders were chosen in 2010 even though some candidates contested the results.
On the other hand, South Sudan will be like Somalia if we return to the old way of doing things in Sudan. This old way of doing things is coup d’état. When leaders take power by coup, they disregard the views of citizens because citizens do not have a say in who should be their leader when leaders take power by force. They just accept what the powerful man or woman says.
Coup d’états often create chaos before the situation is brought under control. Sometimes, coup d’états create long term vacuums, resulting in lawlessness like the one in Somalia. Power vacuum that resulted in the current lawlessness in Somalia was caused by the car accident that severely injured President Siad Barre on the evening of May 23, 1986. Even though President Barre recovered within one month and resumed his reign in Somalia, the accident had unleashed a power struggle among Somalia senior army commanders, elements of the president’s Marehan clan, and related factions, bringing the country to a standstill.
The power struggle created two factions in Somalia: a constitutional faction and a clan faction. The constitutional faction was led by four army generals opposed to President Barre and the clan faction was led by President Barre’s members of his immediate family. The government was now divided into clans.
Due to the worsening conditions in the country, rebels of the United Somalia Congress (USC) led by General Mohamed Farrah Aidid attacked Mogadishu on January 26, 1991, ousting the government of President Barre. Somaliland then declared its independence in May, 1991. The clan-based war then followed, resulting in the current chaos in Somalia.
We in South Sudan can only avoid the above history if we are not power-hungry to the point of forgetting the principles of democracy that brought us this freedom.
One may argue that the current government will not lead us well in the independent South Sudan because it has many short-comings. Therefore, it should be removed immediately after secession. I agree that our current government has many short-comings, but there is no guarantee that anybody in the same government would turn South Sudan into a Paradise by usurping power. Leaders who take power by force often care less about people. They care much about themselves and their inner circles. We must be careful about their intentions.
We must understand that coup d’état is the outdated practice internationally. International community this time opposes any leader who takes power by force. The only fruit that a country under such a leader reaps is sanction, leading to weak economy and starvation. We must avoid this kind of practice if we are to keep peace and build our new nation successfully after secession. Democracy must be the only way of changing leaders in the independent South Sudan if we are to avoid Somalization in our new nation.
Zechariah Manyok Biar, BA. Edu., MACM, MSSW. He can be reached at [email protected]
Lokorai
Will independent South Sudan be like Somalia?
Dear brother Zechariah,
Thanks so much for this piece of work at this time; it came at a crucial time and look forward for you to write like that.
You surely know that our major trouble is us, not the other side, and pray that our leader will put behind their differences immediately after independence and build the nation.
Again thank you!
Lokorai
James Okuk Solomon
Will independent South Sudan be like Somalia?
Zechariah Manyok,
It is good to theorize but let’s have the first thigs first in our hands as the best evidence to rely on. In my view you should have hold your tongue a bit until mid January 2011 when the direction of South Sudan becomes clearly known and endorsed by the international community.
Right now all our eyes should be focused on the referendum excercise itself and whether it will really land us safely on the land of independence. By then it will be the right time to ask this rushed question of yours: Will independent South Sudan be like Somalia?
It is not a secret that you are agonizing with your uncle, Dr. Lual Deng (Diing)the Sudan Oil Minister, about the possibility of South Sudan independence. It is also coming out that you are afraid of Dr. Riek Machar and his group (parralled government) in Southern Sudan, especially in the context of independence.
Surely, all will come into the open later but right now the only priority worry some of us should have is whethere the 60% qorum needed to declare the secession of South Sudan will be reached, especially given the current corruption going on with the sale of a good number of refererendum card by hungry Southerners themselves, in addition to the negatives of illiterate rate during the ticking of the referendum ballot papers.
Let’s hope for the best of the referendum results first before we wish the bad luck of Somalia to South Sudan. Let’s consider the Indian provers that saya: It is not over till it is over.
Dr James Okuk
Bol Deng
Will independent South Sudan be like Somalia?
Ladies and gentlemen,
This argument should not surprise us because we South Sudanese has understood ourselves for so long during the South and North Sudanese war. Additionally, when people with difference thinking capacity merge in societies,there should be more to argue ahead of our time.
We Have witnessed these for longtime that most of our people want leadership base on their tribes or power greed in which some power greed used their own people against the progress of the nation. I and many South Sudanese knew these and this argument must be made clear other we can turn simply to Somalia coin because democracy was the one which cause the lives of our generations.
For Thieling and Solomon Okuk, if you are not encouraging democracy in the South Sudan,then i doubt whether you will lead our country until death. This is true and you must understand this issue,better promote democracy.
Lokaku
Will independent South Sudan be like Somalia?
A coup de’tat? God forbid! What will turn South Sudan into another Somalia is tribalism, nepotism, corruption etc. that are currently being practised by the current Government. For goodness sake, can somebody tell H.E Salva Kiir that there are other tribes in South Sudan other than Dinkas? We do not want to be like another Somalia Mr. Kiir! The sham elections of April must not also be repeated in South Sudan.
Joseph Milla Simon
Will independent South Sudan be like Somalia?
Dear Zachariah,
Your article is good as it teaches us on how to analyze and figure out the future environment that we are going to swim in.
we all know or understand that we are about to finish with our traditional enemy soon and and kiss them bye- bye.
While this is the greatest battle we have ever won that we will remained to talk of for the rest of our lives , we still have a lot of wars to fight. These wars includes, poverty eradication, deseases, corruption,napotism, tribalism, superiority v inferiority conflict, development, the LRA issue, tribal conflict, cattle raiding which often result to lost of lives, lack of goog governnance and many more.
To avoid a situation like the one in Somalia, we need to transform ourselves and graduate into democrates, respect the rule of law, advocate for justice and eqaulity, respect each others property, throw corruption into dust bin, stop land grapping, respect the will of the people and etc. If we are unable to transform ourselves into these qualities, we will not be far from another Somalia in Africa.
We should avoid running the new nations as an individual, clan,and tribal property. It should be a nation where everybody, who deserve and had shed tears or blood on it , should enjoy its fruit based on the principle of democracy, eqaulity, and freedom.
After the referendum, and should the result confirm separation we should focused more on unifying ourselves and advance development. But if we want to manage the new nation like the way we raid each other cattle camp, goat camp or chicken camp, then we should prepare for the worse.
Padiet Deng Alony
Will independent South Sudan be like Somalia?
Thanks Wendit LL Reuben
For those wondering how the South will do after the separation, well look into the SPLM and the SPLA, doesn’t it looks like it is congested with naïve demagogues and awkward high ranking primitive militias. That will be the PROBLEM of the New South Sudan country period.
Reap what they didn’t sow
Thanks LL Reuben that is exactly what is happening in the SPLA/M any way let us finish the destiny first. SPLA/M need to be compensated i mean the Mother united otherwise what they sow will be still reap by those who didn’t saw it. i stop there respecting the referendum the final destiny.