Sudan risks burgeoning civil wars if no urgent actions taken: report

September 27, 2011 (NAIROBI) – Robust international engagement is needed to stave off the spread of civil war in Sudan and its possible impact on the whole region, a new report has recommended.

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based research organization, on Monday issued a report sounding the alarm over renewed conflicts in Sudan’s tense border regions of South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Abyei.

Sudan has been fighting rebels previously aligned with the newly independent state of South Sudan in South Kordofan and Blue Nile since early June and September respectively.

“The growing war on multiple fronts poses serious dangers for the country, for its future relationship with the Republic of South Sudan and for the stability of the region as a whole,” ICG warned.

The report, titled Stopping the Spread of Sudan’s New Civil War, attributed the outbreak of the war to deficiencies in the implementation of the 2005’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended more than two decades of civil wars between north and South Sudan, especially with regards to security arrangements in Blue Nile and South Kordofan

According to the report, those lagging issues include the failed democratic transformation of Sudan, stymied popular consultations, and the unresolved status of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) forces indigenous to the North.

The report further warned that the fact that hardliners within Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party have opted for a military solution rather than a negotiated settlement is uniting rebel groups and could trigger a wider civil war for control of the country.

“There is a real possibility of a new era of protracted civil war in Sudan if key international actors are not able to contain it,” ICG warned, adding that fighting could quickly expand and spill over into South Sudan.

ICG also predicted that increased fighting in South Kordofan and Blue Nile could flare up the situation in the western region of Darfur, noting the recent return of the leader of the Darfur rebel Justice and Equality Movement Khalil Ibrahim.

The report said that the situation will escalate if the international community does not respond swiftly and coherently to the situation.

ICG stressed that a new approach is urgently needed to deal with the internal crisis in the north and conclusion of post-CPA arrangements between the north and the south.

“The international community should unite behind a single approach to begin addressing internal Sudan crises,” it said.

The report went on to say that “a sustainable solution to these must focus on a cessation of hostilities and an inclusive national dialogue consisting of renegotiating the relationship between the centre and peripheries, and agreement on decentralisation and a redistribution of power leading to a new constitution, on the basis of which a referendum and new elections should be held.”

“In the absence of a national political framework, and without clear international consensus to encourage and support a national peace process, the conflict in Sudan may spiral out control and engulf the region,” it concluded.

(ST)