South Sudan’s petroleum fields and the lack of skilled oil workers
By John Garang Ajak
October 3, 2011 — Petroleum is the number one commodity of South Sudan and it is currently the only source of income so it is sad that South Sudan remains one of the world‘s most underprivileged and underdeveloped nations on earth.
According to the UN demographic s and the disputed census of 2008, South Sudan’s population is estimated at 9 million of which 44% of the 9 million are less than 14 years of age. The remaining 56% are split in the middle between male and female of age 15-64. Among the adult age of 15-64 only 27% of the demographic is literate, placing the country the illiteracy rate at 73%. Nonetheless, the country is blessed with enormous petroleum reserves but lack of human capital to develop it.
Given these statistics, should South Sudanese pay for what others do for them? Could South Sudan ever be ready to undertake petroleum development? Is the South Sudanese government investing in its human capital to develop petroleum fields? This piece will not intensely address the highlighted questions but if interested here are the natures of South Sudan’s petroleum fields.
Petroleum engineers and Geologists believes that South Sudan’s petroleum is geologically originated in the Meso-Cenozoic rift basin accompanied by the formation and development of the Central African Shear Zone on the pre-Cambrian crystalline and metamorphic basement of lower relief. According to studies done on the structural and petroleum geology aspect of Melut and Muglad basin of South Sudan, three stages of rift development and fracturing has been identified, stronger in the early Cretaceous and Paleogene and weaker in the Late Cretaceous.
The source rocks are the Lower Cretaceous lacustrine shales, whereas reservoirs and seals are both Paleogene and Upper Cretaceous. Dominant structural styles are large-scale anticlines in the Paleogene sequences and antithetic normal fault-blocks in the Upper Cretaceous and Paleogene. Heavy to light crude oils (8.87–61.5° API) and gas have been discovered in the Paleogene and only light crude oils and gas in the Upper Cretaceous producing zones. The dominant producer is in the Melut basin in Unity State, South Sudan is the Paleogene.
The gentle slopes of each sub-basin are favorable areas for petroleum accumulation and enrichment. Anticlines system of faults within the Paleogene synrift sequences are the main trap types, whereas the antithetic fault-blocks of the Upper Cretaceous sequences are subordinate. On the subject of petroleum resources South Sudan has more crude oil reserves than estimated, thanks to geological entrapments, its reserve is currently estimated at 6.5 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil, placing her in the top ten countries with greatest proven petroleum reserves, above other sub-Sahara African States in the world petroleum reserves ranking.
Evidently, lack of petroleum resources is not an issue in South Sudan but human capital in the petroleum industry is. According to United State Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered petroleum resources of the Sud province, Muglad and Melut basin were highlighted as big basins with large reservoirs and significant volumes, but geologically complex and diverse. Candid reservoir management and regulated production rate by experience and innovative companies will prove essential in recovering all reserves.
Purportedly for South Sudan to wholly benefit from its petroleum resource, it needs to implement statutory procedures through law(s) and regulations to prevent unprincipled production that could led to early petroleum peaks and declines. Petroleum production data from South Sudan petroleum fields indicate that the country’s petroleum fields are depleting at alarming rate due to devious production rates. The new nation faces critical challenges of economic diversification and human capital that must be carried out within a short time span, before petroleum resource depletion occurs.
South Sudan’s vital task should be to train its population, discourage unprincipled petroleum production rate, and allocate public investments and expenditure outside of petroleum industry that will lower the costs of producing manufactured or agro-processed export goods for the benefit of the population. If economic diversification, training, and legislation of laws are not implemented before petroleum depletion, a critical opportunity to reduce poverty will be missed.
All in all, South Sudan faces vast challenges because petroleum is a commodity with surreptitious instabilities. Bureaucrats involved in the petroleum trade are probably and already exposed to the unpredictable price precariousness, forex budgetary inflow is possibly shortened due to low crude oil prices in the world market, technological sophistication for extraction and transportation is and probably a concern, weak administrative institutions staffed with amateurish managers who lack knowledge and experience in the petroleum industry will lead to mismanagement of petroleum reservoirs which are vital for development.
Dire illiteracy rate, widespread corruption, and the rash development of petroleum field will ultimately upset petroleum decline and also the fact that foreign companies are applying rudimentary petroleum technologies to develop petroleum fields which is currently causing rapid petroleum decline should be regarded as a threat to the country’s national security. Fields are being drawdown at alarming rates, which in the long run will leave South Sudanese with nothing but viscous depleted reservoirs with low formation pressure to haul the petroleum reserves to surface.
It’s worth mentioning to South Sudanese officials that petroleum reservoirs are subtle and complicated to manage, they require technological know-how and experience combined with good intentions. Depending on foreign companies at the initial phase might be vital since the country’s lack human capital and technological knowledge but having it as a long term strategy will be problematic. It might be too late to discover that foreign companies based in South Sudan are draining petroleum fields in unprincipled production rate which will cause petroleum decline. South Sudanese officials must pay close attention to petroleum decline issues.
It’s only a matter time before the country runs out of resources for development. It would be unfortunate to let the foreigners’ rip-off the population that has given so much to secure these resources. One would expect South Sudan’s government to established law(s) and regulations and invest in technical training of its people to take over petroleum fields but such gesture is non-existence, instead, looting is what South Sudan authorities seem to be noble at. The actuality of maximum depletion rates in petroleum fields across South Sudan due to mismanagement of petroleum reservoirs by foreign companies who are producing at unimaginable rates is going undetected. Relying on others and paying for what we already own seems to be the norm in Kiir’s Government.
John Garang Ajak is a senior petroleum engineer at the United States Department of Interior Bureau of Land Management. He can be reached at [email protected]