Will Bashir Visit Juba?

By Luka Biong Deng

April 4, 2013 – With the signing of the implementation matrix for the nine agreements signed by South Sudan and Sudan in September 2012, there is now a growing optimism in the normalization of relations between South Sudan and Sudan. This optimism came after a long period of disappointment and frustration from lack of progress in the implementation of these agreements that raised high hopes when they were signed by the two countries. This optimism is even becoming stronger when President Bashir declared that he is not going to run for presidency in 2015 and release of all political detainees as well as visiting Juba as gesture of change of heart. What is very reassuring now is that the two countries have taken serious steps to implement these nine agreements, particularly the oil of the South will flow again during this month through the territory of Sudan.

Indeed the signing of the implementation matrix is a positive step towards normalization of relations between the two countries, particularly the telephone call of President Salva to Bashir and the intention of Bashir to visit Juba are quite encouraging. The real question is whether this drastic change of attitude in Khartoum is a genuine move or a buy-time strategy to settle their power struggle within the party? Although one would have wished to be optimistic, I am inclined to support the latter as the conduct of NCP over years has consistently shown a pattern of betrayal, dishonesty and opportunism. Sudanese people might have by now exhausted the vocabulary for describing the cruelty of the NCP. Despite this growing optimism, one would be extremely cautious as Khartoum has remarkably excelled in dishonouring agreements and this agreement is not different from the previously dishonoured agreements.

But the question again is what let Bashir to take such drastic decisions? It is mostly likely that Khartoum accepted the deal to avoid the building up of serious international isolation and to avoid more sanctions. Importantly, Khartoum has felt the economic and political costs of having bad relations with the South and its policy of playing with time to strangle the South economically has proven be counterproductive. With the declaration of Bashir stepping down from the leadership of the NCP and coupled with a collapsing economy, there is a sharp rift between moderate including CPA group and hard-liners. It is likely that what is being announced by Bashir may not have bearing as he is virtually not in control of the party and his actions may be seen as the last kicks of a dying horse.

Also the serious efforts shown by Juba to erect refineries, conduct of feasibility study for alternative pipeline, adoption of successful austerity measures and serious efforts to explore a possibility of trucking oil all have shown that the South can survive without Bashir’s Sudan. In addition the efforts by the US to convene donors conference this month to assist the South and coupled with acceptance of the South as new member of World Bank and IMF with potential of accessing concessional lending as well as China’s intention to avail soft loans to the South all might have sent serious signals to Khartoum. Despite these positive signals from Khartoum, Juba should continue with its plan to survive economically without Bashir’s Sudan as Khartoum is not and will not be trustworthy. People should expect that Khartoum will soon backtrack from the implementation of these agreements. Above all the real test of this deal is how the two parties could agree on the conduct of referendum in Abyei and to resolve the disputed and claimed areas otherwise such deal may reach a dead end soon.

Interestingly Khartoum has now accepted to negotiate with SPLM-N and if it happens, it will signal again a change of heart but it also shows that the New Dawn Charter seems to yield good results as NCP is seeing the political danger of the Charter. While Khartoum is sending these signals, satellite image project at Harvard shows a building up of SAF troops and armament along the border with the South. This satellite information are now being confirmed by the current escalation of conflict along the border and more evidence of the continuous support by Khartoum to insurgency activities in the South are now revealing in Jonglei state. Above all the continuous rejection of Khartoum to the AUHIP Proposal on the final status of Abyei and its reluctance to resolve all the disputed and claimed areas through international arbitration as well as its denial of humanitarian access to Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile may dash soon this optimism.

With this reading of the situation in Khartoum and given the previous experience about the visit of Bashir to Juba, one would not be optimistic that the visit will take place. While Juba is planning to receive Bashir, there is no definite date set for the visit and there are contradictory messages coming out from the Presidency in Khartoum over the visit. When Juba started talking loud and making preparation for the visit of Bashir, the hard-liners of the NCP were so annoyed by such news coming from Juba and they succeeded to force the Presidency to deny such visit in the Raai-al-aam newspaper, the NCP-owned newspaper. Recently, the Sudan Media Service owned by the Sudan national security released some information indicating that a senior Israeli Official visited Juba to work with the South to obstruct the execution of implementation of matrix and even alleged that Mr Mini Manawi, the leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement, has been allowed to visit Juba. Also with the recent and unfortunate stealing incident in the Office of the President of the Republic of South Sudan and as many South Sudanese may not be happy with such visit, the NCP hard-liners and national security may be reluctant to allow Bashir to visit Juba as he may run the risk of being apprehended and handed over to ICC in the Hague.

Despite these apprehensions, the visit of Bashir to Juba may provide another opportunity for him to open a new page with the people of the South who are gravely aggrieved by his utterances and hatred. If Bashir were to capitalize on the success of referendum, resolve the issue of Abyei and border areas in the same spirit, conduct the popular consultations for the people of Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile and genuinely support the early building of the new country, the people of the South would certainly receive Bashir warmly in Juba. Despite these missed opportunities, Bashir has a chance during his visit to Juba to apologize to the people of the South for whatever happened in the past and to genuinely seek with his brother Salva to resolve the issue of Abyei and border areas and it is then the South will be ready to receiving him with open heart and to give him the respect as the Sudanese President who courageously accepted the free will of the people of the South to have their independent state.

Luka Biong Deng is the former South Sudanese Co-Chair of the Abyei Joint Oversight Committee and currently a Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. He can be reached at [email protected].