IMF upgrades GDP growth forecast for Sudan in 2013
April 16, 2013 (WASHINGTON) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its projections for Sudan’s economic growth in 2013 and adjusted 2012 figures upward as well.
In 2013, Sudan is expected to achieve a 1.2% growth which is higher than the -0.6% projected by the IMF last year. Next year’s GDP is also forecasted to stand at 2.6% which is slightly better than the 2.1% predicted in the IMF last assessment of Sudan’s economy.
It is unlikely that the report factored in last month’s agreement to between Khartoum and Juba to resume oil exports which were suspended more than a year ago taking a heavy toll on both countries’ economies.
“In Sudan, despite a significant pickup in agricultural activity, continued military skirmishes with neighboring South Sudan and the post secession loss of oil production and exports led to a large decline in output in 2012” the WEO report said.
The oil shutdown has worsened economic crises in both countries as they depend heavily on crude exports for state revenues and use the foreign currency to import food and fuel.
Landlocked South Sudan accused Khartoum of seizing part of its oil flowing through its pipelines. Sudan acknowledged the move but said that it is doing so to pay for unpaid transit fees.
Sudan was negatively impacted by the oil suspension because transit fees are a major source of dollars after the country lost three-quarters of oil production when the South seceded. It was forced to adopt austerity measures to boost revenues and cut spending.
Khartoum also moved to effectively devalue the currency which came under enormous pressures as a result of a big shortage in foreign currencies.
South Sudan previously produced 350,000 barrels a day (bpd) but will resume output of between 150,000 bpd and 200,000 barrels bpd initially.
(ST)