The Implications of Bashir’s Visit to Juba

By Luka Biong Deng*

It seemed the moderates within Sudan’s ruling NCP eventually prevailed over the hardliners, allowing for president Omar el-Bashir’s visit to Juba to go ahead. This is a positive sign. However, the visit was also necessitated by other factors. These included the diplomatic embarrassment of Bashir’s failure to attend the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta and the abrupt postponement of the Great Green Wall summit, which had been scheduled to take place in Chad. It is clear that civil society groups with the support of the international community are making it extremely difficult for Bashir to move freely on the continent. Bashir’s increased isolation made the hardliners in the NCP consider the visit to Juba as a diplomatic necessity.

Generally, the visit was successful as it opened a new page in the relations between the two countries. It sent powerful signals that the two countries are genuinely committed to normalising their relations and implementing the cooperation agreement. It is a big relief for the two countries that the South’s oil is at last flowing and the oil proceeds will inject new life into the economies of both countries. If the oil revenues are managed well, the people of the two countries will soon see inflation and prices of basic commodities go down.

Importantly, the border communities will benefit from the re-opening of the border and the resumption of trade. Also, as the implementation of the cooperation agreement progresses, confidence and trust may gradually replace mistrust and strengthen the political will to resolve the outstanding issues, such as Abyei and the border.
Meetings were basically held between the two governments. The citizens of Juba were kept out for security reason. There is no doubt that the visit was well organised. Security arrangements were strict as the Government read the feelings of the people. Some commentators from Khartoum were amazed by the level of organisation. Protocol arrangements seemed even better than those of Sudan. President Salva Kiir also exhibited his leadership qualities as he is one of the few presidents who can easily deal with the indicted president. It seems Bashir is now discovering his counterpart’s virtues, not only in giving him diplomatic breathing space but also as a last resort to inject new life into his failing economy.

Indeed the South, which was long seen as a liability to Sudan, has now become its life-vessel. It is not Iran, the Islamic or Arab world that came to Sudan’s rescue but the South. In one of my encounters with Ustaz Ahmed Elbilal, the chief-editor of one the leading newspapers in Khartoum, he vehemently rejected any assistance from South Sudan. However, he cannot deny now that the South’s assistance through oil exports and financial transfers come as a real blessing to Sudan.

It is interesting that after Bashir’s visit the newspapers in Khartoum started reflecting on the economic importance of the South. El-Sahafa newspaper reported rightly that about 30 Sudanese tribes along the border derive direct economic interests from dealing with neigbouring tribes in the South. More than 20,000 Sudanese traders do not know any other market than that of the South. And more than 20 million heads of livestock move to South Sudan every dry season in search of pasture and water. These economic realities must have prompted Bashir to look for ways of normalising relations with his southern neighbour. It was no longer about the disengagement between the SPLM-North and the South but about economic survival.

Understandably, Bashir was frightened during his Juba visit. He moved cautiously, as was shown during his inspection of the guard of honour when he was sealed off by his own security personnel. Bashir attempted to communicate with the people through the Friday prayers in Juba and during the joint press conference. In fact he apologised indirectly by explaining that he was playing with Arabic words when he described the SPLM, and not the people of South Sudan, as insects. He also said he made the statement out of anger after the incident of Panthou. He assured the people of the South that he ruled them for 20 years and he therefore cannot call them insects. However, his remarks only made it worse as he virtually described his host, SPLM chairman Salva Kiir, as an insect.

Sadly, the summit failed to address the critical issues of the Abyei referendum and the disputed and claimed areas, which may undermine the full implementation of the cooperation agreement. Bashir insisted on the formation of the joint Abyei administration, with Sudan having the chairmanship and 50 percent of the seats of the council, and called this a pre-condition for any discussions on the final status of Abyei. Even with the formation of the joint Abyei administration, Bashir is not ready to accept the Abyei referendum and the African Union Proposal on the final status of Abyei.
The AU mediation panel had expected that the summit would at least agree on the formation of the executive council while the parties continue negotiating on the distribution of the seats of the council. But Bashir rejected this approach as he insisted on the simultaneous formation of both the executive and the legislature. Bashir is using delaying tactics on Abyei by not accepting the AU proposal. In the meantime, he has started implementing his settlement plan of Arab nomads in the northern areas of Abyei. In this context, the AU Peace and Security Council in its next meeting should finally endorse the panel’s proposal on the final status of Abyei and forward it to the UN Security Council. The summit also did not address the issue of the claimed and disputed border areas. Any delays in resolving these issues may pose a real risk for sustaining good relations between the two countries.

With the US foreign policy towards Sudan is now softening and coupled with inaction by the AU Peace and Security Council, despair and frustration may gradually replace the optimism and trust the people of Abyei and the border areas attached to the African Union and the international community, providing a recipe for local political violence.

We hope that the AU Peace and Security Council will act and adhere to its roadmap to put to an end to the endless negotiations on Abyei and the border areas. We also hope that the expected but rather disturbing high-level meeting between President Barack Obama’s administration and senior leaders of the NCP will provide an opportunity for the US to raise the issues of Abyei, the border areas and humanitarian access to the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile. Despite the positive developments in the relations between the two countries, South Sudan should not put all its eggs in one basket as Bashir continues to be an unreliable and untrustworthy neighbour.

*Luka Biong Deng is a Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School and a member of South Sudan’s ruling SPLM. He can be reached at [email protected]. This article was originally published in the New Nation Newspaper.