Can Yau Yau capture towns outside Pibor County?
By Zechariah Manyok Biar
May 13, 2013 – The capture of Boma town in Pibor County by the rebels led by David Yau Yau has raised questions. Some people wonder if Yau Yau would move to other areas, both inside and outside Pibor County, or not. Others wonder whether Yau Yau’s rebellion is going to increase to a major civil war or not.
People like those who are in the Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs) that are now talking of pulling out from Eastern Equatoria areas like Kapoeta believe that Yau Yau will capture towns from other counties. The same people would think the rebellion would increase and become a major civil war. Other people like me think it is unlikely that Yau Yau will capture towns from other counties. Even if he does, he cannot maintain them the way he could do for towns inside Pibor County.
First, let us look into Yau Yau’s ability to capture towns before looking into his ability to increase his rebellion.
Yau Yau has shown that he can capture towns because he has captured Boma. The capture of Boma has a symbolic meaning because when the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army (SPLA) started its capturing of towns across the country in the 1980s, it started with Boma. So, the message of Boma’s capture by Yau Yau seems to say that Yau Yau has started his rebellion like the SPLA did in the 1980s. Now he is threatening Kapoeta like the SPLA once did.
However, the difference is that Boma was captured by mixed forces that were mainly dominated by people from Bor’s current three counties of Bor, Twic East, and Duk. There were members of other communities in those forces too. Unlike those who captured Boma under the SPLA, now those who captured Boma under Yau Yau are mainly from Murle tribe capturing their own town.
Since Yau Yau’s rebellion is area based, he will have difficult time moving to other areas because of the way the rebellion is perceived. If Yau Yau and his army move to Kapoeta area, the Taposas will think that the Murle are coming to Kapoeta area in order to raid cattle. So, the resistance will mainly be done by the civilians. The same thing can happen in Bor and Nuer areas. Therefore, Yau Yau could capture towns within Pibor County, including Pibor itself, but he will have hard time moving to other counties.
Yet, one could argue that if Yau Yau was able to mobilize enough forces to capture Boma, then he has the capacity to mobilize huge rebel army and force his way to areas that understand his rebellion now as Murle issue in Jonglei. I doubt this belief too. My doubt is based on two reasons.
The first reason is the understanding that the followers of Yau Yau have. The Murle youths who have now joined Yau Yau joined him because they are against disarmament. Murle have been keeping their arms for decades and as a result, they cannot imagine a life without their guns. When the disarmament started in Pibor County last year, for example, these Yau Yau followers ran into Ethiopia to save their guns. Yau Yau then came in and told them that they were going to make sure that the SPLA was out of the County for disarmament to stop. That is mainly the reason why they are fighting. They can capture many towns in Pibor County for this reason.
But telling the same youths to go and capture Kapoeta would be very strange to them, unless they are told that they are moving their to raid cattle. If raiding of cattle is the motivator to them, then maintaining of towns outside Pibor County will not be their business.
One would still argue that the SPLA started in the same way. Most of the people who joined the SPLA joined it for different reasons. For example, some joined to get guns and defend their cattle from Murle raiders. Others joined to get guns and defend their areas from the Arab nomads who disturb people in Bahr el Ghazal. If it worked for the SPLA that time, why could it not work for Yau Yau now? This takes us to my second reason for doubting the increase of Yau Yau’s rebellion.
Those who initially joined the SPLM/A for misplaced reasons were given better reasons that they agreed with. They were told that the real threat was the marginalization of Southerners by the Arab dominated government in Khartoum. There were many leading members in the Movement who clearly understood and believed in those reasons. Those leading people were from different communities, including communities from the North. The reasons were beyond individual dissatisfaction.
Yau Yau would give the reason why he is angry, especially to those who form his army. He could give them reasons that include the marginalization of Murle because they have no roads in the County. That could be easy there. But could he extend the same argument to other people who understand that he rebelled because he lost elections in 2010? Many will not. So what he would do is to tell the truth as it is in other areas.
The truth that Yau Yau would tell people in other areas is that a nation were election cheating is allowed is unjust and, therefore, he is fighting to restore election justice. But then what if the people he is talking to know the story very well, would they agree? Of course, they will not.
But Yau Yau could target those who will agree. The way he could do this is to connect his personal grievances to a major national agenda. However, there are many people who do not care about who loses or wins in elections. Their main concern is to have good life. Their questions would include how Yau Yau’s election grievance would bring good life to people in other counties who might not have the same problem in their elections. Will Yau Yau manage to explain this to many educated people who would make his rebellion a potential future government? I doubt.
If Yau Yau will not convince educated people who are capable of disconnecting his intention of fighting from cattle raiding intention, then how is he going to convince uneducated majority who perceive his rebels as bunch of cattle raiders? It is hard.
Yau Yau’s current followers will lose interest too if their main goal is to protect their guns from disbarment so that they can continue raiding other people’s cattle. First, the perception of Murle cattle raiders has been changed by Yau Yau’s rebellion. The raiders of cattle are now associated with Yau Yau’s rebellion. This will give the SPLA all the right to fight them as rebels, not civilians. The human right groups who could have different ways of understanding if the raiders were civilians will say nothing if the raiders are dealt with as armed rebels. This is going to affect the effectiveness of cattle raiding since there will be very few successes in raiding cattle and keeping them.
Second, the hunger is going to increase in Murle area if people will not cultivate in addition to having few successes in raiding other people’s cattle. Guns that they now want to keep will be of no use to them. That will make them lose interest in the rebellion and look for other ways of survival.
All in all, I do not see Yau Yau’s success outside Pibor County. He will capture some other towns within Pibor during this rainy season, but I doubt how he would maintain them in the coming dry season. SPLA soldiers who deserted towns like Boma recently were afraid of being cut off from the main suppliers since roads to Murle areas are soon going to be inaccessible. The same fear will not be there in the coming dry season. Adding this to my argument above will tell you that Yau Yau’s rebellion will be very limited.
Zechariah Manyok Biar can be reached at [email protected]