How the regime of Bashir will end in Sudan?
By Luka Biong Deng
June 5, 2013 – It is becoming apparent that the regime of Bashir is now coming to a dead end. Its demise is imminent and irreversible whatever the NCP will try now to transform itself to meet the aspirations of the people of Sudan. If one would reflect at the time the NCP took over power through military coup d’état in June 1989, Sudan reached the worst level of economic and political performance. The name of Sudan is becoming synonymous with misery, displacements, conflicts, genocide, terrorism and Islamic extremism. Sudan under Bashir is consistently leading every year in having the worst scores in all global indices related to security, human wellbeing, freedom, governance, corruption and accountability. One would say that Bashir has exhausted the rich and enormous economic, social and political capital accumulated by Sudanese over years through their heroic and selfless struggle and sacrifices.
The name “Sudan” is becoming so humiliating to the Sudanese as it is becoming a source of their indignation rather than a source of their pride. Even the members of the NCP do now feel ashamed of being associated with Sudan that they have relegated to the lowest level of shame. Very few Sudanese are now proud of their country as it has been made uninhabitable and intolerable to live in with dignity. Sudan is having the highest level of brain-drain in the continent as Bashir made Sudan so ugly to its own people, particularly the educated and skilled ones.
In the continent, Sudan as one the first countries that gained independence and supported the liberation movements for independence in Africa and one of the founding members of the Organization of African Union, it is now been seen as a real liability to Africa. Sudan has not been successful to convene one of the AU biannual summits or chairing the AU after the NCP started committing barbaric atrocities against the people of Sudan, particularly Darfur. The Sudan of Bashir is seen by most members of AU and indeed the world as the epicentre of terrorism and Islamic extremism.
Most South Sudanese are now convinced beyond any doubt that they will not be able to build good relations with Sudan under Bashir. Despite the considerable efforts exerted by President Salva to mend good relations with Bashir, the end result has always been counterproductive with President Salva paying high political price of gradually losing the confidence of his people while Bashir continues with negative utterances against the people of the South. It is clear now that the oil of the South will not flow smoothly through Sudan as such decision rests with the erratic and unpredictable behaviour of Bashir.
As Bashir conditions the flow of the oil of the South through Sudan to the disengagement of the South from SPLM-North and Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), it is clear that Bashir will soon stop the flow of oil as SRF will be intensifying its military operations during this rainy season. It is in the best interest of the South to seriously pursue its previous plan of surviving without its oil being exported through Sudan under Bashir. As there is now growing evidence that strongly shows the involvement of the regime of Bashir in the assassination of Abyei Paramount Chief Kuol, there will be increasing tension along the border of the two countries and the next seasonal migration of the Arab nomads to the South will face a lot of difficulties if Abyei Referendum is not carried out as scheduled in October 2013.
Most political analyses of the situation of Sudan unambiguously conclude that the regime in Khartoum is imminently unfit to survive longer and the discussions should now focus on the post-Bashir era. Although nobody is certain of how this regime will end, there are three possible scenarios. The first scenario is that the regime may create a coup d’état for smooth exiting and to allow formation of a national government that will oversee the process of permanent constitutional making and conduct of general elections. This scenario will be preferred by the army as they feel humiliated by their politicians who caused these unwinnable civil wars. It is likely that the international community may entertain this option if the military junta committed themselves to democratic reforms in the country. Bashir may like this scenario as it will protect him from ICC.
The second scenario is for Bashir to step down as President of Sudan and to allow his First Vice President Ali Osman to manage the process of negotiating with SRF, forming a national government, permanent constitution making and the conduct of national elections in 2015. This scenario will be rejected by most political forces in Sudan but the international community will support it as it is seen as less bloody. Bashir will cautiously support this option as he will be worried that Ali Osman may betray him and may not protect him from ICC. The SRF may face difficult task of convincing the people of Sudan and international community about the danger of this scenario in sustaining peace in Sudan.
The third scenario is that SRF may intensify its military operations and with popular uprising in the major cities of Sudan, the regime may fall and new national government will be constituted to implement the New Dawn Charter. This scenario is most likely but its success depends on how SRF can extend its military activities to the central and northern Sudan and the acceptance of the Charter as the only viable political project and basis for the regime change. It is likely that SRF can easily be racially and ethnically defined by the regime as angry and frustrated Africans targeting Arab ethnic groups in the central and northern Sudan as well as the middle class. The SRF may need to cautiously balance between political and military agendas and to ensure the supremacy of political agenda over military success for sustainable change in Sudan.
The first scenario of coup d’état seems to be the most likely outcome. However, the second scenario of Bashir stepping down to Ali Osman stands the same chance as that of the first scenario. Although the third scenario of SRF taking power through both armed struggle and popular uprising provides a fundamental and sustainable solution to the problem of Sudan, this scenario is rather a slow process and it can only stand a chance of becoming the most likely outcome if political mobilization could trigger popular uprising that can force the military to side with the people. In fact if SRF can intensify its political work not only within the masses all over Sudan but even within the armed forces and with military successes, then the Egyptian scenario will be the most likely end of the regime of Bashir.
Whatever the scenario with which the regime of Bashir will end, we hope the process will be peaceful as the possibility of violent ending of the regime is most likely because the people of Sudan are greatly aggrieved by Bashir. Certainly the people of Sudan will be particular of making Bashir and his regime accountable for their atrocities. Almost every Sudanese family has been directly affected by the mayhem of Bashir and people know in details who did what to them. The people of Sudan may need to undergo a serious process of healing, truth telling of the atrocities committed by Bashir, mechanisms for ensuring justice and accountability for these gross human rights abuses by Bashir and eventually a process for reconciliation. I am sure the new rulers of Sudan will look at South Sudan as strategic neighbour and will allow the flow of the oil of the South through Sudan with the minimum fees if not free. The new rulers will also aim at resolving amicably the claimed and disputed border areas as well as resolving the final status of Abyei as proposed by African Union. One is certain that Sudan after Bashir will be a better Sudan and Bashir and his clique will eventually pay the price for their atrocities.
Luka Biong Deng is a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School and a senior member of South Sudan’s ruling SPLM. He can be reached at: [email protected]. The article was published by the New Nation Newspaper.