Bashir blackmails the international community
By Ahmed Hussain Adam
June 12, 2013 – Once again, Bashir proved to be a real threat, not only to the Sudanese and South Sudanese peoples, but also a threat to international peace and security. At a public rally on Saturday, June 8, 2013 Bashir instructed his lieutenant the Oil Minister, Dr. Awad Ahmed Al-Jaaz, to notify all the concerned oil companies that Sudan had decided to block the flow of South Sudan’s oil through the main pipeline in Sudan. On Sunday, June 9, Bashir’s Information Minister held a press conference confirming the unilateral freezing of all the nine cooperation agreements signed between Sudan and South Sudan in Addis Ababa on September 27, 2012. Bashir and his information minister have justified their irresponsible actions for the alleged support of the Government of the Republic of South Sudan to the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), (the coalition of Sudanese resistance movements that are pursuing an armed struggle against Bashir’s regime). However, one should question why Bashir has taken such irresponsible decision which constitutes a flagrant violation to the cooperation agreements between the two countries that signed and witnessed by the international community on September 27, in accordance with the UN Security Council Resolution 2046. Furthermore, what gave Bashir such courage and confidence to make such move? The following are some suggested reasons and factors that may shed some lights on Bashir’s decision:
First, based on his experience, Bashir has been assured that the key players of the international community would not respond decisively or strongly against his decision. Moreover, Bashir knew that the international community is divided and unwilling to hold him responsible for his irresponsible decision. The irony is that, since some members of the international community believe Bashir’ allegations against the Republic of the South Sudan and SRF, their views on that issue are offering Bashir the necessary cover and a green light, if not justification, to pursue such reckless tactics.
Second, Bashir has lost confidence in his army, after the recent SRF successful military operations in North Kurdofan against the fatigued, disillusioned and over-stretched armed forces and militias of the regime, the Sudanese government has come to appreciate the strength and support enjoyed by the SRF. In response, Bashir is trying to blackmail the South Sudan, US and other international key players to intervene and stop the SRF from continuing its military activities. Bashir presumes, perhaps incorrectly, that the South Sudan government and the US have strong leverage, if not control, over the SRF leadership.
Third, Bashir has been facing unprecedented effective opposition activities, not only by the SRF but also by the civil opposition, youth groups, students as well as his own ruling party. Therefore, Bashir decided to break his isolation and confront the current mounting opposition against his regime by scape goat the others including the international community. Furthermore, Bashir has been resorting to his old failed tactics in mobilizing the jihadists, at least to keep them busy with his imaginary traditional foreign enemies such Israel and others. Nevertheless, his recent jihadist mobilizations have doomed to a big failure.
Fourth, Bashir seems not to be too worried about the consequences of his decision, which he described as a well-calculated decision. That is due to his partial success in importing some oil from Iraq with a deferred payment. Such deal with the government of Iraq can unveil the level and dynamics of the strong collaboration between Bashir and the Iranian regime and its proxies in the region, such as Nouri-al-Maliki Al Maliki, the Prime Minister of Iraq. In other words, one would observe that, Nouri al- Maliki would have not exported the oil to Bashir without receiving a green light from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme Leader of Iran.
It has to be said that, Bashir’s decision was no surprise for many who have been following closely his behavior and tactics; thus, Bashir’s decision was inevitable. As the regime has been repeatedly signing agreements and dishonored them. It is also obvious that, the current international community’s constructive engagement with Bashir’s regime have failed to deliver peace and stability in Sudan and beyond. The experience proved that Bashir’s regime has been exploiting the international engagement in order to buy time and legitimize itself. At the same time, the government continues its genocidal policies, which undermine the regional peace and security. With Bashir in power, there will be no peaceful relationship between Sudan and South Sudan and Sudan will descend into a chaos and total war, since Bashir doesn’t believe in peaceful or political solution to the crisis within Sudan or with the South Sudan.
It is true that Bashir may eventually retreat from his current blackmailing options; for instance, he has already hinted that he would reverse his decision provided that the South Sudan stops its alleged support to the SRF. Nevertheless, the question is for how long the Sudanese peoples in the two Sudans live in such state of uncertainty and to what extent the world could tolerate or play this vicious and endless game with Bashir. The majority of Sudanese people have already decided to remove Bashir from power as they couldn’t afford to live under his genocidal regime any more.
Nevertheless, the ball is in the court of the international community, it is high time that the regional and international key players should learn their lessons and reverse their current failed policies of preserving the status quo and support change and its forces in Sudan such as SRF and other agents of democratic change in Sudan. The US shouldn’t reward Bashir for his intimidating move and allow to be blackmailed by this genocidal dictator. The African Union (AU) and its member States should recognize that their support to Bashir is utterly counter to the founding documents of the AU, such as the AU Constitutive Act of 2001, which obliges the AU to intervene in a member state such as Sudan, in situations of genocide and gross violations of human rights. Therefore, the AU should withdraw its unconditional political and diplomatic protection from Bashir and support the Sudanese groups which are fighting for freedom, justice and democratic change in Sudan. The SRF should exert further concerted efforts to build consensus among the Sudanese peoples around the New Dawn Charter (NDC) as well as the political program for change in order to realize a managed democratic transition in Sudan. The Republic of South Sudan should seriously find other alternatives to export its oil whatever that might cost.
Ahmed Hussain Adam is a Visiting Scholar and Co-Chair of the Two Sudans Forum at the Institute for the Study of Human Rights (ISHR), Columbia University in the City of New York. He can be reached at: [email protected]