Cereal prices in Sudan’s lean season remain stable: report

July 30, 2013 (KHARTOUM) – Cereal prices have remained stable in Sudan throughout the country’s lean season, bucking a nationwide increase in staple food prices.

According to the July Sudan Monthly Market Update (MMU) for July, cereal prices remained relatively constant on most markets between May and June, with ample supplies from last year’s bumper harvests continuing to arrive on the market and traders gradually liquidating their stocks in preparation for the 2013/14 season.

While cereal prices were 11 percent lower overall than their respective June 2012 levels, prices were close to 90 percent higher than the five-year average.

However, below average rainfall in June throughout most of the producing areas of central Sudan has limited the release of stocks for the May-September lean season.

Zalengei market in Central Darfur recorded the highest spike in sorghum prices with an increase of nine percent.

High transportation costs due to insecurity and heavy rains also drove up prices by six percent in South Darfur’s Nyala and South Kordofan state capital Kadugli.

In Al Qadarif – Sudan’s main sorghum producing area – sorghum prices increased by five percent in line with the seasonal trend at this time of the year. With prices close to the export parity levels due to a price decrease on international markets, the report said, suggesting Sudanese sorghum is likely experiencing a decline in its export competitiveness.

Millet prices were generally stable in June on most of the monitored markets. According to the report, prices in Blue Nile state’s Ad Damazine decreased by five percent, while they were up six percent in Central Sudan’s Al Qadarif.

Millet prices in Sudan were nine percent lower compared to June 2012 but 79 percent higher than their five-year average levels.

Wheat prices continued to increase on markets due to high demand during the month of Ramadan, with Wheat prices 16 percent higher than their respective June 2012 levels and 95 percent higher than the five-year average.

Zalenegi and North Darfur capital El Fasher recorded the increases between May and June, with wheat prices going up 20 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, Northern state’s Dongola – the main wheat production area in Sudan – recorded a five percent decrease in wheat prices.

According to figures issued by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the official national annual inflation rate dropped from 37 percent in May to 27 percent in June.

CBS attributed this to the relative stability of the Food Consumer Price Index (CPI) between June 2012 and June 2013.

The MMU said the terms of trade between cereals and livestock continued to favour pastoralists, with the trend likely to continue over the next months as pasture conditions improve during the course of the July-September rainy season and as cereal prices decrease gradually due to a favourable production outlook.

According to the report, future cereal price trends will be dependent on the outcome of the July-September rains.

“Some slight price increases have occurred during the first three weeks of July due to delayed rains. However, these prices could stabilise or start to decrease if rains perform as well as anticipated in the central surplus production areas of the country”, the report notes.

“If rains are good, traders will continue to sell their old stocks, causing prices to remain stable. If rains are normal to below normal, sorghum prices will likely start to increase in the coming months” it adds.

This MMU examines current prices and market trends in Sudan from available data sources at the ministry of agriculture and irrigation /ministry of animal resources, range and fisheries (MoAI/MARF).

(ST)