South Sudan Crisis; what many analysts predicted
By Peter Gai Manyuon
January 29, 2014 – The ongoing crisis of the South Sudan has been contextualized and analyzed in a different angles, perspectives by human rights defenders, Journalists, writers; other writers like myself predicted what might bring be the problem in one of my article that was published by the South Sudan News Agency (SSNA) on the December 11th 2013 titled: Analysis of the SPLM Crisis: Which group will win the party’s leadership?
I mentioned and analyzed the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) party politics very well and if you follow the link above, you will agree with me without doubt.
Hence ,many people from South Sudan are blaming each other on who is the root cause of the ongoing mess that is happening in the newest nation territory, other are saying some clicks of people who are next to the President Salva Kiir Mayardit are the one manipulating the all situation. Well, there has been a very closed group of people which most of the South Sudanese citizens are aware off, indeed they gave destructives advices to the President of South Sudan but above all, is the President of Uganda, who have strategize the current crisis that have lost many people lives from Juba, Bor, Malakal and Unity state as well.
However, having contextualized and observed the Uganda involvement in current crisis of South Sudan , will also lead to the removal of President Kiir in Juba as well President of Uganda in due time. Why do I have this projection? We all know that, the level or the stage where the current crisis is, will lead to the regional block war, if am not mistaken. The world is seeing one tribe fighting the all region of Eastern Africa spearheaded by the number dictator known by the name Yoweri Museveni for have ruled Uganda for decades. Now Uganda have come up voluntarily helping President Kiir to be in power for this period of time due to the agreement that they have signed early last year in 2013, and also there are Countries that also look at the all scenario of the Republic of South Sudan, other Countries might involve militarily if the secession of hostilities that was signed in Addis Ababa is not observed by the government of South Sudan that is fighting in line with the Uganda People Defense forces (UPDF) confronting the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM/A) in opposition.
How South Sudan became Independent Nation in 2011 and how Kiir succeeded Late Dr John Garang in 2005
South Sudanese experienced a frequent wars, first there was a serious fighting that took place between the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM/A) and the National congress party of the north Sudan for almost twenty one years of civil war. And eventually came to an end after the comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) was signed in 2005 by President of Sudan al-Bashir and Dr John Garang De Mabior. Subsequently for the last eight years General Salva Kiir Mayardit was the President after he was nominated by the senior SPLM members to replaced late Dr John Garang De Mabior after the late crashed in helicopter which was not expected up to date.
There were issues aroused from the SPLM members’ discussion on who should be the leader or replace late Dr John. By then Dr Lam Akol was yenning for the position due to his experiences and liberation struggle expertise and also Dr. Machar was on the top as well because he look at himself the only man who can replace Dr John Garang due to the fact that, when his government and the one of Mabior signed a peace deal in 2002 in Nairobi Kenya, he was suppose to be the second person as well as his expertise and experiences in global agendas regionally, internationally. Good enough Dr Machar told the gathering that, Kiir should take South Sudanese to the promise land, which indeed happened, where South Sudan gained independence on the 9th of July 2011 and still the President up to now.
How President Museveni of Uganda came to power
He came to power after a successful five year guerrilla struggle. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has now been President of Uganda for 26 years as we speak. He has stood for democratic elections four times and won and he is still going strong due to his military intimidation to all Ugandans because, he has marginalized all Ugandans. He is everything in Uganda.
President Yoweri Kaguta Musevenihas been known as men who have lead the Republic of Uganda for decades and more interestingly he came through power using military coup and subsequently became the president up to date. Museveni held posts in transitional governments and in 1980 ran for president of Uganda. When the elections, widely believed to have been rigged, were won by Milton Obote, Museveni formed the National Resistance Movement. The resistance eventually prevailed, and on January 26, 1986, Museveni declared himself president of Uganda. He was elected to the post on May 9, 1996, and his backers won control of the National Assembly in legislative elections held the following month. Museveni was re-elected in 2001 and again in 2006 after a constitutional amendment passed the previous year had eliminated established term limits for the presidency. He was re-elected again in 2011, although the opposition and international observers noted problems with the polling process. If you may ask yourself; do you think that he came to power in a democratic way?
Combined analysis about the President Museveni and Kiir
Most of the South Sudanese or the world knows how the two gentlemen become friends; after Late Dr John died in a helicopter crashed in 2005, know one see them celebrating but to my own analysis they smile inside their hearts after South Sudanese lost a great man. President Museveni was suspected by most of the people of South Sudan and the world because the helicopter which was use by the late John was from Uganda and eventually the hero and the great man who brought people from civil war to peace got disappeared between Uganda and South Sudan and most people from South Sudan are still unhappy about President Museveni up to now. Realistically and logically, how can South Sudanese have good relationship with Uganda President in that sense?
The history have acknowledge that Museveni had killed many of the guys whom he liberates the Country with, some of his colleagues who are still with him, he had brainwashed them properly, and everyone is looking at him as the King of King in Uganda.
Coming to the facts, about his interest to President Kiir of South Sudan; he want to be heard in the Eastern Africa and because of that, he does not like to associate himself with the people that he knows are more creative, logical more than him that is why he always associate himself with the people that he knows can say yes my boss like Kiir. But one thing that Museveni did not realized is the geo-political set up of the Republic of South Sudan, he thought everything might be like Uganda where he can give orders every day and then, he did not realized that South Sudanese are people who are very serious when coming to the real fighting and etcetera .
Furthermore, according to the Media Reports in Uganda and the world at large, it had been leaked that President Museveni signed a deal with his counterpart Mayardit, one of the agreement is the oil money that he want to be help because (he) Museveni is interesting to contest for the Uganda Presidency again in 2016 and he need good amount of dollars to manipulates the elections through bribing. And more so, he is fearful to the people like Dr Machar, Pagan Amum, because incase one of this politicians become a President of South Sudan, he can immediately be out from the leadership seat in Uganda automatically which I didn’t think can happen.
Why Museveni fear Dr. Machar and Pagan Amum?
The reason why Museveni is not happy with Dr Machar is that, Machar has been western minded person who put democracy first, and respect for the rule of law and human rights. On the other hand, he (Museveni) fear Pagan Amum because he knew very well, comrade Pagan, have all the documents of the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) even the party secretes are with Amum, he is against the release of Amum and above all Pagan is a good in mediation and negotiations.
Author is the Independent Journalist who had written articles extensively as Columnist on issues of Democratization and Human Rights in South Sudan; you can contact him through;[email protected]