South Sudan: the implications of the return of G-10
By Steve Paterno
For over the years, South Sudanese politicians have gained notoriety of proverbial ‘Prodigal Son,’ well explained biblically. The recent arrival into Juba of some of G-10 members, (now the G-5), has just added into the long list of Prodigal Sons–the folks who enjoy the livelihood of defections from one political camp into another.
The return of some members of this group, nevertheless, presents unique challenges, which provides for some interesting scenarios. After accepting and acknowledging their treacherous role in igniting the current conflict, the G-10 signed the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Reunification Agreement, paving way for intra party dialogue, reunification, and eventual reforms.
The intra party negotiations is initiated as a parallel peace process to augment the ongoing IGAD sponsored peace talks. The negotiations is supported by regional powers. It involved three of the former SPLM splinter factions, which include the SPLM, the armed group, and the G-10.
Nonetheless, the armed opposition led by former Vice President Riek Machar reluctantly participated into the process. After signing a series of agreements under this process, the armed group ultimately abdicated their involvement entirely, leaving only the SPLM and G-10 as active participants. The armed opposition may indeed have good reasons as to why they are hesitant to participate in the intra party negotiations, since the framework guiding the negotiations does not provide platform for the outlandish demands the rebels are vowing for under the IGAD peace process.
This, compounded with other elements makes this agreement rather challenging to implement, both in theory and practice. First, this agreement as a complementary to the whole peace process; is literally pending, awaiting the results and outcomes of IGAD sponsored talks.
The implementation of this agreement is also further complicated by the personalities involved from either sides in the conflict. Actually, the return into Juba of some members of the G-10 in an attempt to implement this agreement offers some glimpse as to what may be laying ahead.
It is important to note that the implementations of this agreement hit a snag from the get go. The President of the Republic of South Sudan, Salva Kiir had to go out of his way by issuing blanket amnesty in favour of the rebels, in order, to facilitate smooth implementation of this agreement and reach a comprehensive peace.
Now that some members of G-10 gave it a chance in an attempt to implement the intra party agreement, it actually raises the spectre of speculations more than ever. The group that showed up to Juba called itself the “advance team of the G-10,” even though G-5 best fits their description, because the group was initially G-11 plus, and since then, their number is on a nose dive, dwindles to only five individuals at the current rate. Some of the questions remain for speculations are such as: what would the G-5 advance in Juba, with their much hyped prodigal son farewell return? What would happen to the rest of G-10 members. who seems to have disappeared behind the scene? And the questions go as we anticipate the farewell return of more prodigal sons…
Steve Paterno is the author of The Rev. Fr. Saturnino Lohure, A Romain Catholic Priest Turned Rebel. He can be reached at [email protected]