Darfur crisis could stymie south Sudan peace
By Tom Perry
CAIRO, Aug 13 (Reuters) – Hopes that a deal between Sudan’s government and southern rebels could also foster peace in Darfur were misplaced, analysts say, insisting that the crisis in the west could instead thwart efforts to end 21 years of war in southern Sudan.
Since Darfur rebels launched a separate uprising in the west last year, Khartoum’s Islamist government and rebels from the mainly Christian or animist south have made strides towards ending the southern war that has killed two million people.
But the Darfur conflict, which the United Nations says has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, is now also taking its toll on the southern peace process.
“Darfur has prolonged the negotiations in the southern conflict,” said Douglas Johnson, a Sudan specialist at Oxford University, England.
“The government seemed to have dragged the negotiations out for as long as they can to see if they can regain control of Darfur before a peace agreement in the south is signed.”
International pressure has mounted on Khartoum to rein in marauding Arab militia in Darfur, who rebels and rights groups say the government has used to drive non-Arabs from the area.
Khartoum, which denies the charge, has about two weeks to show the U.N. Security Council it is serious about neutralising the militia or face sanctions under a U.N. resolution.
With that threat hanging over its head, some analysts say the government’s incentive for signing a southern peace deal have been eroded.
SOUTHERN REBELS MAY ALSO BACK AWAY
Khartoum and the southern rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) have over the last two years agreed on tough issues including power and wealth sharing, but have yet to agree a permanent ceasefire or sign the deal. Khartoum said it had expected a deal by the end of 2003.
Washington, which lists Sudan as a “state sponsor of terror”, last year said it would review all listings against the government if it concluded the peace agreement.
But resolving Darfur is now Washington’s main condition for normalising ties with Khartoum, under U.S. sanctions since 1997.
And accusations that Khartoum has encouraged ethnic cleansing in Darfur could well deter the SPLA from getting closer to the government.
SPLA leader John Garang, who would take the post of vice president under the peace accords, has already warned the Darfur crisis could undermine a north-south deal.
“There’s no way you can make peace for southern Sudan while you also make war in Darfur,” Garang told Reuters in an interview last month.
The Darfur conflict has shocked the international community, killing an estimated 50,000 people, uprooting more than a million and leaving two million in need of food and medicine.
“Because Darfur is still an international embarrassment to the country, I don’t think Garang would sign up,” one diplomat in Khartoum said.
PRESSURE RELEASE
International pressure, particularly from Washington, which mediators say has been key in the push for southern peace, has also been diverted by the Darfur crisis, said Said al Khatib, spokesman for the government’s peace talks delegation.
“I know the kinds of pressures we were under three months ago to finalise this deal for the south,” said Khatib. “Southern Sudan is not foremost in the agenda of the people who cared earlier to come and talk to us. They have changed their focus to the problem in Darfur,” he said.
But he said the conclusion of a southern peace deal could pave the way for peace in Darfur, where the two rebel groups accuse Khartoum of neglecting the impoverished region.
Deals forged between the SPLA and the government on managing two disputed areas would apply to Darfur and other Sudanese states under constitutional changes following a peace deal.
“Agreements reached for Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile are going to be a model for all the states,” Khatib said. “The people of Darfur would be able to elect their governors and have a say in how their resources should be managed.”
The SPLA agreed that elements of the deal hammered out for the south could also work in Darfur and the presence of former rebels in the government could temper its policies.
“Some people in this regime have committed crimes against the Sudanese people. It was happening in the south…now it is happening in Darfur,” said SPLA/M spokesman Samson Kwaje. “Maybe the presence of the SPLM in government could modify this extremism.”
(With additional reporting by Katie Nguyen in Nairobi)