South Sudan Peace Agreement: to Sign or not to Sign

By Steve Paterno

South Sudan peace process faltered badly. The most anticipated deadline to sign a final comprehensive agreement has passed, with government failing to ink the proposed agreement. Only the militia faction led by Riek Machar and some other stakeholders agreed to sign. The government insists that may be it will sign the proposed agreement one day, but not now. They are consulting with the people and asked for two more weeks to respond base on the demands of the people.

The two week old negotiations resulted into the parties not agreeing on a hundred percent of every contentious issue. Like, expected, it all then boiled down to an arbitrary imposed deadline, where a proposed compromise is hurriedly hashed out for final signature of the principals. Even when the deadline was looming, the evidence of tensions among negotiators were high, characterized by some dramatic moments being captured in a process. For example, Rebecca Nyandeng, the widow of South Sudanese charismatic leader, John Garang and a harsh critic of President Kiir, broke into a weird screaming thunder-dome. (Her gaffe, is stuff of dramatic popularity contest being widely circulated on social media). As things were heating up, President of Uganda, Yuweri Museveni abruptly stormed out of the meeting. A sign of protest against his IGAD colleagues. President Museveni gestured to his counterpart and a friend, President Salva Kiir of South Sudan that ‘let’s get the heck outta here!!!’ President Kiir along with his delegation then also left. Fortunately, for President Kiir, he arrived to a huge celebratory crowd at the Juba International Airport, who praised the President for rejecting to sign the IGAD proposed compromised agreement that majority of South Sudanese believe an affront to their dignity as a sovereign nation.

Now, the whole agreement hangs in a balance, pending the decision of the government of South Sudan. Another challenge is that even if that agreement is signed, how possible will it be practically implemented. The militia ranks are already split, with factions among them threatening against any agreement signed without them being part of. That means, the war never stops with a mere signature in a paper.

The best next move is not whether to sign or not. The peace process should rather be allowed to run its own course. The people who most matters such as the population of South Sudan, through their government and the warring generals must continue to negotiate until they reach a reasonable and agreeable settlement. Involving irrelevant interest groups such as the G-10 has been a waste of time from day one in this peace process. After all, groups like the G-10 already joined the government side through Arusha intra party agreement, but for some unknown reasons, they were recycled back by IGAD mediators as spoilers.

Equally significant, given the split among the armed militias, the influence of Riek Machar group over the war is something that is yet to be assessed and determined, before he should be considered as a real factor in bringing peace. The situation is fluid and dynamic So, time is the juror. International community threats against the government, which actually holds keys to the peace, can also inadvertently and tragically backfire. The government holds all the leverage. Therefore, any peace effort must be viewed in light that the government is in charge.

In conclusion, as Minister of Information Michael Makuei would always say, ‘let’s negotiate and the real peace may just be around the corner.’ For peace will come without any imposition or threats, but through a genuine negotiations.

Steve Paterno is the author of The Rev. Fr. Saturnino Lohure, A Romain Catholic Priest Turned Rebel. He can be reached at [email protected]