Darfur only the tip of Sudan’s widening crisis
By Andrew England
LONDON, Aug 24, 2004 (Financial Times) — When Sudan hosted an international trade fair earlier this year, Khartoum’s Buri conference centre was bursting with optimism and packed with exhibition stands.
As Sudanese in flowing robes wandered through crammed aisles and past a gleaming Mercedes on display, there was talk of a new era for Sudan, a nation that has suffered five coups, chronic underdevelopment and 37 years of conflict since independence in 1956. There were even rumours that US investors were sniffing around, hoping US sanctions would soon be lifted.
The optimism was fuelled by the belief that US-backed talks to end a 21-year war in southern Sudan were reaching their conclusion. A separate conflict in the western region of Darfur had been raging for a year, but most dismissed its importance.
When Jack Straw, Britain’s foreign secretary, visits Sudan today, six months after the trade fair, he will find the mood in Africa’s largest country has changed dramatically.
The north-south peace deal is now barely mentioned as world attention has shifted to Darfur, where 1.4m people have been made homeless and thousands killed.
The impact has swept away the optimism and put immense external pressure on the government just as it hoped to be welcomed back into the international fold.
The longer the crisis continues, the greater the ramifications are likely to be, potentially destabilising the region.
Instead of US sanctions being lifted, there are threats of new measures against the government. Rather than the prospect of celebrations to mark the end of the southern war, analysts warn that the north-south deal could be jeopardised.
In diplomatic circles, government offices and on Khartoum’s dusty streets there are also concerns that another uprising could erupt in the east. President Omar Hassan al-Bashir’s Islamic regime is perceived by some to be at its weakest since seizing power in 1989, diplomats say.
“I think those of us in Khartoum are concerned that if the international community had to greatly increase pressure on this government, the hardliners could react negatively,” says one diplomat. “There are people in the government who believe the whole [southern] peace process went too far and may well see confrontation with the international community over Darfur as a reason to go it alone.”
But that will not stop “the pressure if needed,” the diplomat adds. A 30-day United Nations deadline for the government to prevent attacks against civilians in Darfur ends on August 30.
In the east, the military is on 24-hour standby, a security official in the city of Kassala says, amid reports that a rebel group known as the Beja Congress, which is allied to the Darfur insurgents, is training in neighbouring Eritrea. Both Eritrea and Sudan accuse each other of supporting their opponents.
“It’s not guaranteed that something will happen, but there are ingredients. Even the rebels of Darfur are working very hard to encourage some of these factions in eastern Sudan,” says Mahdi Ibrahim, a top official in the ruling National Congress party.
Mr Ibrahim argues that the international community’s failure to condemn the Darfur insurgents encouraged them and rebels elsewhere. Others say the north-south deals, which northern opposition groups criticise as bilateral arrangements, also send out signals that change can be reached only through the barrel of the gun.
The Beja Congress has fought the government sporadically since the 1990s, seeking development and an equitable share of Sudan’s resources for the east – similar demands to western rebels.
Few regard the Beja as a serious force on their own. But if they received support, they could launch a guerrilla campaign and attack the main highway that links Khartoum to Port Sudan.
“This is the most worrying moment we have experienced since independence,” a former senior government official says.
Diplomats and many Sudanese say the power and wealth-sharing agreements that the southern rebels, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), struck with the government hold the key to Sudan’s future and could be used as models to solve the Darfur conflict.
However, the last round of talks between the government and the SPLA – which focused on a ceasefire and implementing agreements already signed – was adjourned last month. Observers agree there is little chance of a final deal until the situation in Darfur drastically improves.
Some question whether the SPLA will be tempted to use government weakness to seek more compromises, but hope the parties have invested too much in the peace process to pull out.
But SPLA warns it will not wait forever for a final deal. “We will not be able to remain in a situation of no war, no peace,” says Pag’an Amum Okiech, a senior SPLA member. “Either we move into peace or we go back to war.”