Is Sudan’s roadmap a failure for AUHIP

By Hafiz Mohamed

In an unusual move in all mediation processes the African Union High Implementation Panel ( AUHIP) signed its proposed road map with the Government of Sudan (GoS) after the others four parties of the last Addis Ababa meeting rejected the road map and insisted on what came on the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) meeting numbers 456 and 539 which asked UHIP to organise pre-dialogue consultation in Addis Ababa to pave the way for the participation of the armed movements and others political parties in the National Dialogue but GoS refused to take part in those meeting after been invited more than two times , but at end they managed to force AUHIP to cave and did what they want by abandoning the pre-dialogue meetings and change it to strategic meetings to please the NCP. I think the NCP managed to humiliated AUHIP and UNPSC as they deliberately rejecting their resolutions and proposal and forced them to change them, I don’t think others parties to Sudan conflicts will have faith in AUHIP and others AU institutions and that will undermine their ability to play any role in resolving Sudan’s multiple crises.

According to the last statement by HIP they said they are going to refer the matter to AUPSC , and that clearly shows the weakness of HIP and its ability to take the same stand against the parties to the negotiations , GoS managed to watered town many resolutions from AUPSC and the UN Security Council such as the Tri-patriate agreement , UNSC resolution 2046 and the resolution of the AUPSC meeting numbers 456 and 539 , the AUPSC failed to take any punitive measures against GoS , we are waiting to see what measures are they going to take against the armed movements and political parties which refused to sign the road map.

Coming back to the road map itself nothing new in it the only new clause is number 5. (The Parties acknowledge that a process of Dialogue has started in Khartoum in October, 2015), it is clear that this clause inserted by GoS as part of their political propaganda to say that the political parties and the armed movements recognised the Friendship Hall dialogue and then go ahead with it to buy them extra time and elevate some of the pressure which they are facing now. That move from AUHIP support the opposition claim that the panel is bias toward GoS, and that will make it difficult for it to continue as mediator in Sudan multiple crises. After more than 7 years of involvement as the main peace broker in Sudanese conflicts I don’t think they achieve any success which will support their continuation as mediator, comparing their record to what the IGAD mediators done in 30 months of negotiations which ended with the signing of the comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) in 2005.

If we assumed that the 4 parties to the recent Addis Ababa round of talk sign the road map will that going to produce an agreement, at the end that is doubtful as there is nothing new or encouraging in comparison to the previous road maps and agreements mediated by AUHIP such like the Framework Agreement signed in Addis Ababa in 26 June 2011 (Malik Nafie agreement) and later rejected by president Bashair.

The only thing which the signing of the road map between AUHIP and GoS will do is it will give the NCP propaganda tool to portrait itself as the good guy and the opposition as the bad one.

It clears the NCP learned how to play the game right exploiting the political weakness of the political parties and the armed movements and their failure to exploit the failure of the NCP to run the country, it refusal to accept many AU and UN decisions and failure to exploit the popular anger due to the economic difficulties the country is facing, as most of the time they looking for their saviour to come from somewhere.

But the big failure politically lay on the Sudan People liberation Movements- North (SPLM-N) as the failed exploit their military gain and successes in holding SAF from making any military advance in the last 3 years and most importantly managed to hold the summer offensive this year as until now SAF and its proxies militias are not able to make any military move, but at the end the solution will come through political means , and SPLM-N wasted many opportunities in the last 5 years to exert the maximum pressure on the NCP that include the following:

1- The NCP signed an agreement in June 2011 and later the president rejected it from one side.
2- GoS refused to attend more than 5 rounds of negotiations during 2013 and 2014.
3- GoS refused to implement the Tripartite agreement and managed to water it down.
4- GoS refused to implement resolution 2046 which include 6-week timeframe and managed to stop AUPSC from referring it back to UNSC.
5- GoS refused to accept AUHIP proposal which handed to the parties on 7 January 2014 and give them one week to respond.
6- GoS refused to attend the pre-dialogue consultation according to AUPSC resolutions of its meetings number 456 and 539 within the stated timeline of 90 days.

And now the government will use its signing of the road map to exert the maximum pressure on the armed movements and it will ask for sanctions against them, at the time when SPLM-N wasted many opportunities to forced them to accept the will of the regional and international institutions such as the AU and the UNSC and now they succeed in dividing the negotiations platforms of the armed movements by asking Darfuri armed movements to join a Doha process.
I think the armed movements and the political parties need to rethink their strategies on how to deal with the current position politically. For SPLM-N it need to examine carefully why they failed to exploit many political opportunities and their military successes which their military wing SPLA-A achieved politically, and all that must be done through their institutions not to allow few individuals to hijack all the process, after all that they need to change their political approach.

Simply because if things continue as it is , the only winner is the NCP confining the war in the Nuba mountains and Blue Nile will increase the suffering of the people as they are already been suffering for the last five years with a famine looming this year in many parts of the Nuba mountains in additional to that the IDPs within others states of Sudan and the refugees are suffering due to lack of basic needs and the rate of school dropped out is over 70% and that will have devastating impact on the future of the coming generation , after all the NCP doesn’t care much about these people but for SPLM/A-N those are the relatives of the fighters and represent the core political support of SPLM-N all that must be taken into accounts.

At the end peace can only be achieve through the will of the parties to the conflicts, the mediation only plays modest role and we haven’t seen that at least from the side of the NCP as they managed to succeed in their survival game, by dragging negotiations on and on for ever, and at the end water them down all the agreements they signed as they are good in dividing opposition political parties and armed movements and also use division within ethnic and tribal lines. All that is just a time buying tactics and will complicate the problem further at the same time represented a serious threat to the territorial integrity of Sudan as the sentiment for self-determination among activists and youth from the Nuba mountains is growing and raising fast, and if we want o the keep Sudan intact we must quickly move from a self-centred narrow minded attitude of Sudanese political elites. Learning from the lessons of South Sudan separation at that will turn into a domino factor if the same way of thinking continues.

Hafiz Ismail Mohamed is CSOs activist and can be reach at: [email protected]