JMEC’s statement on the despairing situation of South Sudan
By James Okuk, PhD
In the Opening statement delivered to the members during the plenary meeting in Juba on 23rd June 2016 by H.E. Festus G. Mogae, the Chairperson of the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), it could detected that the preliminary monitoring and evaluation of the pace of the implementation of the August 2015 Agreement on Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS) is overwhelmingly negative and frustrating to those who want to see a meaningful peace settlement in the country as a whole.
For the first time H.E Mogae has started addressing the scary and disappointing situation of South Sudan with ‘a heavy heart’ of almost-getting-frustrated as he narrated the highlights of his assessment to the 32 members of his institution, representing the parties to the agreement, the other South Sudanese Stakeholders and Adherents, the Regional Guarantors, and International Partners and Friends of South Sudan i.e., 2 each from GRSS, the SPLM/A – IO and Faith-Based Leaders; 1 each from Former Detainees, Other Political Parties, Women’s Bloc, Civil Society Organizations, Eminent Personalities, Business groups and Youth; 1 each from Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda, Djibouti, Somalia, Rwanda, Chad, Nigeria, South Africa , Algeria and African Union Commission; and 1 each from U.S, UK, Norway, China, United Nations, European Union and IGAD Partners Forum (IPF) and also the public at large both nationally and internationally. For him the parties are failing to adhere to the letter and spirit of the ARCSS as stipulated in the Preamble and also to the spirit of the transitional National Constitutional Amendment Committee, culmination in the national elections at the end of transitional period.
According H.E. Mogae, Chapter I on Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) is not fully established and moving as expected. It is seems to be paralyzed by the fact that only the Presidency and the Council of Ministers are in place but not working collectively as one team of peace yet. There seems to be a parallel government operating separately and secretly from the TGoNU. This is blocking any progress in the expansion and reconstitution of the Transitional National Legislative Assembly and Council of States, the reform of the Judiciary, the reconstitution and establishment of the Other Specialized Transitional Institutions and Mechanisms (i.e., the undersecretaries, the professional commissions and authorities) and the restructuring and composition of State Governments, especially in Conflict-Affected States and other states in accordance with power-sharing quotas in the ARCSS. The formation and operationalization of the expected Boundary Commission to look into the issue of 28 states as directed by the IGAD’s Council of Ministers in January 2016 remains a far away dream as some dirty games have been pushed into this to fail it.
But above all the JMEC’s Chairperson identifies the delays and obstruction against the implementation of Chapter II on the Permanent Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements (e.g, work of CTSAMM, JMCC, JOC, Joint Integrated Police, the Strategic Defence and the Security Review Board, etc) as the priority area of the worry about the viability of the ARCSS. Most content of his statement identified the critical areas for attention because without security in place there can’t be any meaningful peace and sustainable development in South Sudan, which might also pose a regional and international threat as the new country on the globe doesn’t exist as an island of its own among the nations. For the first time he came out openly to diagnose the problem and identify lack of political will from the Principal former warring parties (the SPLM-IG and the SPLM-IO) to silent the guns in all parts of the country, especially the country side where the social fabrics is seriously wounded by the bitterness of harmful consequences of the war (i.e., killings, robberies, ambushes, intimidation, harassment, sexual violence, child abduction and conscriptions, displacements and refuge in UNMISS PoCs and neighboring courtiers). He urged the Presidency to intervene and give clear directives to their respective lieutenants on this urgent matter because it is hopelessly putting the ARCSS on a dangerous hold with a possibility of an undesirable collapse.
Lack of progress in Chapter II (due to absent of leadership and cooperation from the military commanders and lack of commitments by their representatives) is seriously hampering the implementation of Chapter III on Humanitarian Assistance and Reconstruction. Access of humanitarian personnel is being denied in the most-needy areas for rescue and sometimes the relief agents are harassed or killed. Thinking about the establishment and operationalization of Special Reconstruction Fund (SRF) remain a far away dream. Also the reforms and legislations which are needed for effectively implementing Chapter IV on Resource, Economic and Financial Management Arrangements is being delayed mainly by lack of comprehensive permanent ceasefire in the country, which causes more desertion of citizens to save their threaded livelihood but stay idle in UNMISS camps (PoCs) or other refugee camps in the neighboring countries and at the mercy of good Samaritans and NGOs. Spending more money and lives on military war operations has not been reverted to humanitarian, economic and services sectors yet. The currency exchange rate and inflation has continued its descent, further escalating the suffering of ordinary people. For H.E. Mogae who is a professional economist in addition of being a statesman, a country without a stable running economy can’t b regarded as a dignified territory for happy life.
Despite the politicized dodging of full and timely ARCSS implementation, the JMEC’s Chairperson warned the parties not to temper with Chapter V on Transitional Justice, Accountability, Reconciliation and Healing. He wanted the components (i.e., Truth, Healing and Reconciliation Commission, Compensation and Reparations Authority, and Hybrid Court for South Sudan) of this type of special justice to be established without further delays so as no the keep abetting impunity continuity of violence in the country. This has to go hand in hand with implementation of Chapter VI on Parameters of Permanent Constitution so that issues of governance and management of diversities in the country could be addresses comprehensively and based on scientific findings, including the federal system of government and the suitable number of units of the levels of the government (e.g. No states, 3 states, 10 states, 21 states, 28 states or more states).
According to H.E. Festus, the JMEC shall keep reminding the parties on Chapter VIII on Supremacy of the ARCSS and Procedures for Amendments so that they do not operate outside the deal without approval by the JMEC (e.g. trying to amend the ARCSS matrixes and unilateral decisions by the Presidency on critical issues like advisors without getting back to the JMEC, the Council of Ministers and all the Parties). The JMEC shall keep its commitment as stipulated in Chapter VII of the ARCSS and remain seized to in how to overcome some of the major obstacles to ARCSS implementation with the mandated mission: 1) Monitor and oversee all aspects of the implementation of the Agreement; 2) Monitor and oversee the mandate and tasks of the Transitional Government of National Unity, including the adherence of the Parties to the agreed timelines and implementation schedule; 3) Oversee all work of Pre-Transitional and Transitional institutions and mechanisms created by the Agreement; 4) Enjoy, under the laws of South Sudan, such legal capacity as may be necessary for the exercise of its functions, including the capacity to contract and to acquire and dispose of real and personal property; 5) Request status reports from any of the Pre-Transitional or Transitional institutions, as it deems necessary; 6) Break deadlocks within the TGoNU, as per the provisions of Chapter VII, Article 6 of the Agreement; 7) Publicize its work, conduct public outreach to the people of South Sudan, and ensure that the progress of implementation of the Agreement is widely disseminated; 8) Report regularly to the TGoNU Council of Ministers, the Transitional National Assembly, the Chairperson of the IGAD Council of Ministers, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, the Peace and Security Council of the African Union, and to the Secretary- General and Security Council of the United Nations on the status of implementation of this Agreement, as provided for in the Agreement; 9) In the event of any non-implementation of the mandate and tasks of the TGoNU or any of the Pre-Transitional and Transitional institutions and mechanisms created by the Agreement, or any other serious deficiencies, recommend appropriate corrective action to the TGoNU, and/or remedial action to the national and international institutions named above; and 10) In the event the TGoNU fails to take such remedial actions, the Chairperson shall report such matters with recommendations to the other stronger international bodies for pressure and action.
The address of H.E. Mogae should prick the conscience of the ruling leaders of South Sudan if at all they have a sympathy left for their suffering population from effects of the senseless war and crazy volatile shocking economy. These political leaders should not gamble and undermine the gravity of the despairing situation being faced by vulnerable and downtrodden population who still has the electoral power of mandating the legitimate governing of the country. So far the parties (especially those who have the monopoly of means of violence) are still behaving as expulsive strangers to each other rather than cohesive partners for peace. The mistrust between them is still high. That is why the Overall Supervisor of the ARCSS implementation is seriously worried, given his assessment of the behavior of the parties. For him the stalemate on the pending issues might threaten the viability of the whole peace agreement and draw the country back to a gloomy situation of ‘to-be’ or ‘not-to-be’.
But so as not to be blamed if things went wrong later (God forbids), the Old Man from Botswana is now set and prepared to stage official complain in form of monitoring and evaluation report on the hindered implementation of the ARCSS, to be presented to the TGoNU’s Council of Ministers, the Chairperson of the IGAD Council of Ministers, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, the African Union Peace and Security Council, the Secretary General of the United Nations and the United Nations Security Council. The report shall be accompanied with recommendation for remedial actions, perhaps including punitive measures against those individuals who are obstructing the progress of ARCSS implementation and working for its collapse. This reminds of Eleven Thesis by Karl Marx in his Theses On Feuerbach: “Philosophers have hitherto only interpreted the world in various ways; the point is to change it.”
The JMEC has descriptively analyzed the worrying Situation of South Sudan. The conclusion is almost drawn: the parties to the agreement, especially the principals who have the monopoly of means violence, are unable to develop the desired and expected Political Will to work jointly and responsibly to implement the ARCSS fully and in time. The tough question is: What next if the intransigence against peace realization in the country continues? The Open Options: 1) Resignation by JMEC and other peace-lovers who are getting frustrated with lack of full implementation of the ARCSS so that war is given another chance to consummate the remaining breath in South Sudan (a country so far that doesn’t have a dignified countryside because of its loosened social fabrics due to the senseless war), or 2) External Intervention to prevent more humanitarian and warmongering catastrophes under the world responsibility to uphold the Principle of Protecting Vulnerable Civilians against humanity crimes and other serious bad news that are punishable by international law (the R2P). The recent toughened language of the Spokesperson of the UN Peacekeeping Operations Department in New York regarding the UN release of official report of the attack on civilians in the UNMISS’ Malakal PoC in February 2016, is already painting a grey writing on the wall as to what might befell South Sudan if the ARCSS collapses. Both options are very bitter but the second one could be a lesser evil if the worst comes to the worst.
Now for the two options to be avoided, I am appealing to the top political leaders not to compromise the fate of new country on the globe by refusing to change the old political mindset in order to embrace peace sincerely. Oh, Oh, Oh My Leaders; Soften Your Hearts and Make Peace Sooner Before it Becomes too Late for You to Continue Letting Down Your People Without Consequences. Oh, Oh, Oh; It is Now Time for Courageous Action Towards Rekindling the Hope of Peace Before the Outsiders Come in to Do it for the Downtrodden People Who are Part of the Dignity of the Humanity as Well. Put your Act Together and Take Charge of Bringing Dignity of Our People Back and Quickly So as to Close the Window that Justifies the Intervention of Foreigners into Our Internal Affairs.
The Essence of Any Government is to realize for its People the Security from Fear and from Wants so that they don’t contemplate deserting and wishing a downfall by any means to their very government of the day. If indeed some individuals are obstructing peace why should they not be distanced from power positions? While we keep dragging our feet, people are dying of hunger and curable diseases, the economy is collapsing, and insecurity is becoming rampant all over the country. Even areas that used to be peaceful are now flashpoints of insecurity. If Malakal was gone long time ago and Wau is now being deserted, will Juba not be the next in the line if ARCSS implementation continues to remain a myth? What will we call the triple historical centers of politics in South Sudan if these cities are no more? What other signs are we waiting for to get convinced that we are fast sliding into an abyss if we don’t revert from this tipping point in the coming few days if not weeks? The exit is peace and not war. Listen well my leaders!
Dr. James Okuk is lecturer of politics reachable at [email protected]