Weekend peace talks on Sudan vital to future of Africa’s longest civil war
By William Wallis in Nairobi
Financial Times
August 8, 2003
Sudan peace talks due to resume in Kenya this weekend could make or break prospects of ending Africa’s longest running civil war, General Lazaro Sumbeiywo, Kenyan mediator in negotiations, said yesterday.
The talks follow agreement last year on the so-called Machakos protocol, under which John Garang’s rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) traded agreement to the continuation of Islamic law in the north for six years of southern autonomy, ending with a referendum on the south’s independence.
The deal, which came amid strong US engagement with the peace process, was seen by some as giving Sudan its best hope of peace since war resumed 20 years ago.
The SPLM, fighting for the emancipation of the Christian and animist south, has largely accepted Gen Sumbeiywo’s latest proposals, covering issues left out of the Machakos deal.
However, western diplomats and Sudan specialists are less sure whether the National Islamic Front (NIF) government in the Arab-influenced north is in the mood for compromise.
The NIF’s position has hardened in response to the latest proposals, dealing with power-sharing and security arrangements, the division of revenues and the religious status of the national capital. Government officials have described them as the precursor to the break-up of Sudan.
President Omar el-Bashir said last month that if they were not refashioned, regional mediators could “go to hell”.
Gen Sumbeiywo, the tough former commander of the Kenyan army, was unmoved.
He suggested in an interview with the Financial Times ahead of Sunday’s talks at Mount Kenya, that prevarication at this stage could restart the war, and that Khartoum would be hard-pushed to withstand international pressure for a compromise.
As far as the US is concerned, last year’s Sudan Peace Act requires the Bush administration to determine by October whether the NIF is negotiating in good faith. The act envisages $300m (?265m, £186m) of US support for government opponents – on top of the continuation of tough US sanctions on Khartoum – should the government be seen to scupper the peace process.
“It is what you call decision time now. It’s like a surgical operation. They have to decide whether to bear with the pain of surgery or to bear with the pain of death,” Gen Sumbeiywo said.
John Prendergast of the International Crisis Group said NIF hardliners militating against a deal had been buoyed by their military success in controlling oil-producing areas in the south.
However, the outbreak of a new rebellion in the western Darfur region may have alerted others in the NIF to the potential for a wider conflagration as numerous marginalised communities attempt to weigh in on the peace negotiations.
The fighting in Darfur, diplomats said, has in turn encouraged some in the SPLM to think the Khartoum government could still be toppled.